Super El Nio is about to strike. JP Morgan warns: a global food crisis may erupt next year.

JPMorgan recently warned that the next global food crisis may be brewing and could erupt next year. The bank's analysts attributed the driving factors to the "Five Ws": War, Weather, Warehousing, Water, and Waste. In a new report titled "Food Security Is National Security: A Compounding Storm," a team led by senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi in London cautioned that disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the potential emergence of a historically strong El Nio phenomenon could weaken crop yields, constrain agricultural production, and keep food inflation persistently high until the first half of 2027. "Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the successive shocks have compounded, eroding food production capacity and keeping food price pressures elevated until 2027," Szentivanyi stated, warning that "this is not a temporary shock; it reduces the likelihood of a near-term inflation retreat, and the upward pressure on the food inflation cycle may continue through the first half of 2027." She projected that the global food inflation rate will accelerate from 2.8% in the first half of 2026 to 5% in the first half of next year. This warning comes at a time when hunger statistics have shown slight improvement, but the situation remains severe. By 2025, approximately 645 million people globally will face hunger, a reduction of about 43 million from 2022. However, there are still 2.1 billion people25.8% of the global populationwho are experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity. Szentivanyi pointed out the current most vulnerable link: fertilizers. She noted, "Disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the upcoming super El Nio are exacerbating pressures on fertilizers and food prices." She stated, "The impacts on crops and prices are still accumulating, and the peak sea temperatures typically have a lagging effect on agriculture of 6 to 12 months." Szentivanyi warned that the energy shocks this year could double the inflationary impact from the super El Nio, adding approximately 1.5 percentage points to the global food CPI, compared to a historical average of just 0.7 percentage points. Food inflation is expected to reach an annualized level of 5% in the first half of 2027, contributing an additional 0.6 percentage points to overall inflation and slowing its decline by 0.3 percentage points for the year. "The shocks are concentrated in South Asia and Southeast Asia (affecting rice, sugar, and coffee); West Africa (impacting cocoa); and parts of East Africa and Southern Africa," the analyst indicated, adding, "Emerging markets will bear the brunt of the El Nio impacts. The regions with the largest increases in food prices are mainly found in emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, as agriculture sensitive to weather constitutes a significant part of economic activity in these areas, and food holds a higher weight in consumer baskets. India, Colombia, Indonesia, Brazil, and South Korea are the most vulnerable economies." China has been stockpiling grains, fertilizers, energy, and industrial metals. While Western countries possess strategic oil reserves (which are rapidly being consumed to compensate for losses in Gulf supplies), they do not have sufficient buffer stocks of fertilizers. Amid ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, deteriorating crop growth conditions, and multiple countries implementing food export restrictions, Szentivanyi believes that the next round of inflationary shocks may not emerge at gas stations as it did earlier this year, but could instead appear on supermarket food shelves next year. The views in this report are not isolated; previously, several institutions, including Goldman Sachs and HSBC, have warned that cumulative risks could trigger a new wave of food inflation. Bank of America analyst Robert Ohmes recently cautioned that rising food prices could appear in supermarkets this fall. Meanwhile, a recent report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations revealed that the global food price index reached a new three-year high in July.