EVTank: The prospect of AIDC is broad, with sodium-ion battery shipments expected to exceed 435GWh by 2030.

Recently, the research institution EVTank, in collaboration with the Ivey Institute of Economic Research, jointly released the "China Sodium-Ion Battery Industry Development White Paper (2026)." In the white paper, EVTank stated that by 2025, sodium-ion batteries will achieve large-scale applications in core scenarios such as energy storage, two-wheeled vehicles, power applications, and start-stop power supplies. Innovative models such as AIDC (AIDC with storage) and "lithium-sodium synergy" will continue to emerge, driving the accelerated growth of sodium-ion battery shipments. EVTank anticipates that the actual shipment volume of sodium-ion batteries will reach 435 GWh by 2030. In 2025, China's sodium-ion battery shipments are expected to reach 8.1 GWh, with leading companies including Veken Technology, Haishida, Contemporary Amperex Technology, Fudi Battery, and Pylon Technologies. In terms of specific application scenarios, sodium-ion batteries will primarily be used in the energy storage sector by 2025, accounting for over 60% of the market; followed by applications in two-wheeled vehicles, new energy vehicles, and start-stop power supplies. From a technological perspective, by 2025, the cathode materials for sodium-ion batteries will primarily consist of polyanionic materials, which, due to their cost-effectiveness and cycling performance advantages, will account for over 70% of shipments, surpassing layered oxides as the mainstream technology for sodium-ion battery cathodes; the hard carbon route for anode materials will remain the absolute mainstream, comprising over 90%. Looking to the future, the new battery consumption tax regulation will officially take effect on September 1, 2026, exempting sodium-ion batteries from consumption tax until the end of 2028, while lithium batteries will resume taxation. This two-year tax exemption is expected to significantly reduce the overall tax burden on sodium battery companies, compress product end prices, and accelerate the process of cost parity between sodium-ion and lithium iron phosphate batteries. From the perspective of downstream applications, the development path of sodium batteries is not to fully replace lithium batteries, but rather to leverage their own cost and performance advantages to create a differentiated layout focused on energy storage, supplemented by power applications, and catering to specialized scenarios that precisely match the demands of niche markets. Energy storage is the core field where sodium batteries are first scaled up. Energy storage has lower requirements for battery volume and weight, prioritizing safety, cycle life, low-temperature performance, and cost per kilowatt-hour, which aligns well with the advantages of sodium batteries, covering scenarios such as energy storage in cold climates, backup power in data centers, grid peak regulation, and commercial and industrial energy storage. Furthermore, the rapid development of the AI industry is driving a swift increase in electricity consumption for AIDC computing centers, leading to substantial demand for storage solutions. Sodium batteries possess core advantages such as high-rate charging and discharging, long cycle life, and short-duration high-power output, allowing them to effectively counteract voltage fluctuations and frequency disturbances caused by AIDC computing load variations. Sodium batteries can also be combined with lithium batteries to form lithium-sodium synergy storage solutions, utilizing "sodium batteries to control peaks, lithium batteries to maintain duration" as the core framework, achieving perfect compatibility with the full-scenario energy storage needs of AIDC. In the field of power batteries, focus is on mid-to-low end and special condition vehicles. The current performance of sodium batteries is already sufficient to meet the needs of electric two-wheeled vehicles, which will prioritize the replacement of lead-acid batteries and some lithium batteries in the electric two- and three-wheeler market. However, constrained by energy density, the applications of sodium batteries in new energy vehicles are not as anticipated, primarily fitting entry-level micro electric vehicles, short-distance freight vehicles, and light trucks. With leading companies like Contemporary Amperex Technology and BYD Company Limited increasing investment, the penetration rate of sodium-ion batteries in the low-end new energy vehicle sector is expected to gradually rise.