Is a turning point approaching for Quantum Computing (QUBT.US)? Orders and production capacity have both broken through, and the universal gate approach is entering the "last half mile."

Wedbush Securities stated that Quantum Computing (QUBT.US) may be approaching a turning point, as evidenced by its second-quarter performance and the completion of the NHanced Semiconductor acquisition. The firm has assigned Quantum Computing a "Neutral" rating with a target price of $12. In a report to clients, Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson wrote, QUBT delivered and installed a Dirac-3 optimization system with a global consulting firm in June, and management highlighted progress in supporting more variables. He added, Its photonic energy computing platform NeuraWave reached commercial readiness in April, and received an initial order for five units from Planck Dynamics under a framework agreement valued at over $10 million. Regarding gate-based quantum computing, company management described QUBT as climbing the last half-mile of the mountain, while reiterating that such machines do not currently exist. Therefore, we still consider QUBT to be the most speculative in terms of technology/form among publicly listed quantum computing companies. Bryson continued, Overall, while the early completion of Fab 2 is a real positive and we are not overly concerned about the quarterly losses or QUBT's ability to improve acquired business operations, we still require a better understanding of the feasibility of QUBT's technological path before changing our outlook on the stock. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Troy Jensen assigned Quantum Computing a "Neutral" rating and a target price of $10, expressing confidence that the company can capture "at least" 5% of the market share over time. Jensen stated, We believe that by 2035, Quantum can achieve a 5% share of the quantum hardware, software, and services market, which corresponds to achieving $375 million in sales over ten years. If we discount the projected 2035 sales back to the present using a 10% discount rate, the present value of those sales is $159 million. Based on an estimated total share count of 225 million, this translates to a market capitalization of approximately $2.2 billion. Universal Gate-based Quantum Computing Pathway The market's attitude towards Quantum Computings Universal Gate-based Quantum Computing pathway can be summarized in one sentence: it is viewed as a "high optionality value, but far from validated" long-term betneither dismissing feasibility nor willing to fully trust before the prototype is born. This cautious optimism forms the main backdrop of current market expectations. When modeling Quantum Computing, Wall Street analysts generally assign very high discount rates to its gate-based pathway (with the discount horizon often extending to 2035 and beyond). The current valuation premium given by the market primarily relies on its photonic manufacturing (Fab 2) and the vertical integration capabilities established through acquisitions (such as Luminar Semiconductor and NuCrypt). Given the distant commercialization of the gate-based pathway, the market's short-term evaluation and performance assessments of QUBT largely hinge on the concrete orders for its proprietary photonic optimization system (Dirac-3) and energy computing platform (NeuraWave), such as contracts from global consulting firms or government projects. Due to the substantial increase in R&D expenses from gate research (which is expected to rise significantly year-on-year in 2026), capital markets are highly focused on whether its cash reserves (around $1 billion) can sustain it through the lengthy "burn period" of developing universal gate systems. The market perceives the company's universal gate quantum computing pathway as "a long-term high-yield call option": if its photonic-based room-temperature gate computing achieves commercial breakthroughs first, it will lead to a disruptive valuation reconstruction; however, at the current stage, the market is more inclined to view its gate development as a long-term technological reserve, maintaining a "neutral" wait-and-see rating and requiring the company to prove its self-sustaining capabilities first with dedicated optimization systems and infrastructure orders.