Kainuo Securities: Beijing's real estate new policy boosts the "Golden September and Silver October," recommending three major investment directions.

KYG Securities has released a report stating that Beijing has once again shortened the social insurance duration for non-Beijing residents purchasing homes and increased the housing provident fund loan limits. The implications are clear, and it is expected that policies to relax purchase restrictions in Shanghai and Shenzhen will follow. In the first half of the year, the real estate industry still experiences a weak recovery in sales coupled with a contraction in supply, but the overall policy environment remains loose. The processes of controlling increases and reducing inventory are continuing to accelerate, and the performance of high-quality real estate companies is steadily improving. Recommended targets include: (1) high-quality property enterprises with strong fundamentals and product strength in well-positioned cities; (2) commercial real estate operators that emphasize both operational management and asset management, benefiting from the recovery in real estate and consumer promotion policies; (3) high-quality property management targets that excel in service quality under the "Good House, Good Service" policy. The main viewpoints of KYG Securities are as follows: Beijing has adjusted its real estate policy regarding purchase restrictions, gift-giving, and the housing provident fund. On the evening of August 7, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Beijing Municipal Planning and Natural Resources Commission, and the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center jointly issued a notification titled "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policy." This policy significantly adjusts existing regulations regarding purchase restrictions, gift-giving, and the housing provident fund. The new policy is expected to significantly boost the Beijing market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The current policy has considerable strength, particularly regarding housing provident fund policies, which are expected to provide a strong boost to the Beijing market during the "Golden September and Silver October." Regarding purchase restrictions, the new policy lowers the requirement for non-Beijing resident families purchasing commodity housing within the Fifth Ring Road from two years of continuous social insurance or individual income tax payment to just one year. In terms of gift-giving policies, the current adjustment eases the conditions for parents gifting commodity housing to their children, removing the requirement to verify the child's home purchase qualifications. Concerning the housing provident fund, the policy has increased the upper limits of provident fund loans, raising the first-home limit from 1.2 million yuan for the first property and 1 million yuan for the second property, to 2.4 million yuan for couples' first properties and 2 million yuan for second properties. Additionally, the policy adjusts the floating rate regulations; for purchases outside the six districts of the city, green buildings, and families with multiple children, the maximum floating limit is raised by 600,000 yuan for an individual contributor and 1 million yuan for couples. Furthermore, there have been relaxations in mechanisms linking loan limits to contribution duration, recognizing property when applying for provident fund loans, creating procedures for transferring properties with mortgage obligations, and adjustments for home renovation withdrawals. After the new policy is implemented, the degree of relaxation in Beijing's purchase restrictions is close to that of Shanghai and Shenzhen. Post-implementation, the degree of relaxation in Beijing's purchase restrictions is similar to that of Shanghai and Shenzhen. The Beijing real estate market is projected to exhibit a pattern of "weak new homes, strong second-hand homes" in 2026. From January to July 2026, the total number of new homes signed online reached 60,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%; second-hand homes totaled 120,200 units signed online, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. On one hand, the new policy releases an additional group of potential buyers, and on the other, it increases residents purchasing power through the relaxation of housing provident fund loans. Given that the interest rate on provident fund loans is lower than that on commercial loans, this policy is expected to create a "de facto interest rate cut" effect, enhancing residents' purchasing power. Risk warning: Market confidence recovery may be less than expected, and the impact of policies may be below expectations.