Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | The 14th Five-Year Plan Officially Launched, Coal Industry Welcomes a Valuation Rebuilding Turning Point (with Related Stocks)

The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Coal Industry." The plan points out that by 2030, the coal supply guarantee capacity will be further strengthened, the production and distribution layout will continue to be optimized, the proportion of high-quality advanced production capacity will be further increased, and the production, supply, storage, and sales system will be moreated. The capacity of large modern coal mines across the country will increase to 87%; safety and green development and clean, efficient utilization levels will be significantly improved, and the intelligent construction of the whole system will be deeply promoted, with the proportion of intelligent coal mine capacity rising to 75%; a diversified coal-based industrial pattern will accelerate formation, coal consumption will peak, and the dynamic balance guarantee mechanism for supply and demand will be further improved. The modernization governance capacity of the industry will be significantly enhanced, a modern coal industry system will be basically established, and high-quality development of coal will reach a new level. This plan provides four rigid quantitative indicators that directly define the boundaries for the industrys development over the next five years: Firstly, the proportion of large modern coal mine capacity will increase to 87% by 2030, with the production of the five major supply guarantee bases in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia (Western and Eastern), Shaanxi (Northern), and Xinjiang accounting for over 80% of the national total. Small and backward capacity will continue to be eliminated, with resources concentrated in leading enterprises; Secondly, the proportion of intelligent coal mine capacity will reach 75%, making intelligent coal mining a hard survival threshold rather than merely a demonstration project; Thirdly, it is clearly set that coal consumption will peak by 2030, maintaining a mid-to-long-term consumption level of 4.9 to 5.1 billion tons, transitioning from an incremental competition model to a stock competition model within the industry; Fourthly, the construction of flexible reserve capacity of over 100 million tons per year will be completed, and an adjustable supply guarantee mechanism will be established to smooth out the severe cyclical fluctuations in coal prices. Relevant companies in the coal sector include: SHOUGANG RES (00639), KINETIC DEV (01277), China Shenhua Energy (01088), China Coal Energy (01898), Yankuang Energy Group (01171), YANCOAL AUS (03668), MONGOLMINING (00975), and CHINA QINFA (00866), among others. China Shenhua Energy (01088): As an absolute leading state-owned enterprise covering the entire industry chain to form a complete closed loop of coal, power, self-built railways, ports, and coal chemical engineering, it has an approved capacity of 570 million tons, with long-term coal sales accounting for over 85%. Its self-built transportation system significantly reduces external transportation costs, and the coal-electricity joint operation model naturally hedges against fluctuations in coal prices. The company continues to implement ten million-ton-level intelligent mining, and driverless projects in open-pit mining, aligning with the 75% intelligent capacity requirement in the plan while also developing CCUS and high-end chemical businesses from coal. Its dividend policy has strong certainty, with a commitment to a dividend rate of no less than 70% between 2026 and 2028, making it a core target for bottom warehouse allocation in the coal sector, with valuations continually aligning with public utilities. Yankuang Energy Group (01171): The company simultaneously develops both thermal and coking coal sectors, with domestic coverage in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia as well as high-quality coal production capacity overseas in Australia, smoothing regional supply and demand fluctuations. The company masters a complete set of self-developed technology for low-high temperature Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and has established four major coal chemical industrial parks, with production capacity of high-end chemical products such as coal-to-liquid, olefins, and Fischer-Tropsch wax surpassing ten million tons, while downstream new material products penetrate the new energy and battery industry chains. By 2026, it will complete the acquisition of assets for large-scale thermal power, wind-solar storage, and electricity sales platforms, transforming into a comprehensive energy service provider that constructs a three-dimensional growth system based on cash flows from thermal power, new energy growth, and high-margin chemicals, continuously weakening cyclical attributes and reinforcing growth logic. Leading enterprises in coal chemical engineering: CHINA RISUN GP (01907): The group expects its net profit in the first half of 2026 to increase by no less than 335% year-on-year. The announcement states that the growth in net profit is mainly due to the combined effects of the following factors: the widening of price differentials for fine chemical products due to rising prices, and the successful acquisition of Tianjin Binhai Energy & Development. The expansion of price differentials for the group's fine chemical products is primarily attributed to increased price differentials for aromatic production lines. CHINA XLX FERT (01866): CICC released a research report stating that CHINA XLX FERTs advanced water-coal-slurry technology builds a cost advantage of about 10% lower than the industry, establishing a competitive moat. With the completion of capacity expansion in Henan, Xinjiang (Zhundong), and Jiangxi, the urea production capacity is expected to grow by 59% to 8.05 million tons by 2027. Currently, urea profitability is at a cyclical low, and there is limited downward price space, so the expansion of capacity is expected to drive the company's performance growth.