China Index Academy: In July, the month-on-month increase in residential rents in 50 cities expanded.

The China Index Academy has stated that in July, the rental demand during the college graduation season concentratedly surged, marking the entrance of the national housing rental market into its traditional peak season. The average residential rent in 50 cities continued its upward trend, with the month-on-month increase further expanding. First-tier cities maintained a leading rent increase, with Shanghai having ranked first among the 50 cities for four consecutive months; the stabilization and recovery of residential rents in second-tier and third-fourth tier representative cities also began to emerge. In July, the month-on-month increase in residential rents in 50 cities expanded, reaching a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years. According to the China Index Academy's rental price index for 50 cities, the average residential rent in July was 34.01 yuan per square meter per month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.13%. Year-on-year, it decreased by 2.62%, with the decline narrowing by 0.20 percentage points compared to June. July, as the core month for concentrated rental demand during the graduation season, saw a large influx of recent graduates into the market, driving sustained activity in the housing rental market in key cities and boosting owners' confidence in listing properties. After several years of continuous adjustment, the downward space for rents in key cities has significantly narrowed, with upward momentum gathering. Short-term rental recovery in July, driven by seasonal effects, reached a relatively high level compared to recent years, slightly below the level in July 2023 (where rents increased by 0.20% month-on-month in July 2023). In July, first-tier cities continued to lead in rent increases, while the rent stabilization trend in second-tier and third-fourth tier representative cities began to show. In July, the month-on-month trend of average rents across all city tiers was stable and improving. According to the monitoring data from the China Index Academy, the average rent for ordinary residential properties in first-tier cities continued to rise, with a month-on-month increase of 0.38%, maintaining the same growth rate as in June. Rents in second-tier and third-fourth tier representative cities gradually stabilized, with second-tier cities experiencing a slight month-on-month decline of 0.01%, continuing a trend of narrowing declines for two consecutive months; rents in third-fourth tier representative cities ended a continuous adjustment phase of 24 months, increasing by 0.02%. When looking at the cumulative change in residential rents throughout the year, the recovery momentum in first-tier cities continues to strengthen. From January to July 2026, average rents in first-tier cities rose by a cumulative 0.98%, while second-tier cities saw a cumulative drop of 1.21% and third-fourth tier representative cities experienced a cumulative decline of 0.77%. Overall, the rent changes in all city tiers were better compared to the same period last year, with the recovery signal in first-tier cities being the most evident, as their average rents shifted from decline to growth; the declines in rents for second-tier and third-fourth tier representative cities were also narrower than those of the same period in 2025. The short-term impact of the graduation season is positively releasing, and first-tier cities, which attract highly educated talent, continue to strengthen their rent recovery momentum. The continuous upward trend in rents for core cities in July has become more evident, with Shanghai ranking first in rent increase among the 50 cities for four consecutive months. According to monitoring by the China Index Academy, in July, among the 50 cities, 24 saw rent increases, 25 saw decreases, and 1 remained stable, with the number of cities experiencing rent increases rising by 8 compared to June. Among the top 20 cities for residential rents, 12 cities saw month-on-month increases, an increase of 2 from June, with Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Suzhou continuing their upward trends. Chengdu and Ningbo halted their declines and turned to increase, while Guangzhou remained stable month-on-month. From the performance of specific cities, as of July, Tianjin has seen rents rise for six consecutive months, while Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen have experienced increases for five consecutive months, with Shanghai's rent increase remaining the highest among the 50 cities for four consecutive months. The increase in Beijing's rent has expanded compared to June, and cities like Suzhou and Hangzhou have also shown consistent upward trends in recent months. The rent recovery trend in core cities has become clearer. In terms of internal city rent performances, Shanghai has seen a continued overall rent increase, with a noticeable rise in the number of districts in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou showing increases. In July, all 16 districts in Shanghai experienced month-on-month rent increases, with Hongkou and Huangpu districts exceeding 1% in increase, while Jing'an, Minhang, Yangpu, Pudong New District, and Xuhui also showed increases of over 0.5%. In Beijing's districts, rents increased in 15 areas and decreased in 1, with the number of districts experiencing rent increases rising by 5 compared to June; districts such as Xicheng, Haidian, Dongcheng, and Mentougou had the highest month-on-month increases in the city. In Shenzhen, rents increased in 7 districts and decreased in 2, with the rental increases in industrial clusters or near industrial concentration zones such as Guangming, Bao'an, and Futian leading the way, while rents in Nanshan and Pingshan saw slight declines. In Guangzhou, rents increased in 8 districts and decreased in 3, with the number of increasing districts rising by 4 from June, leading to an overall stabilization in average rents throughout the city, particularly in demand-driven residential areas like Baiyun and Conghua. The rental map for residential areas in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou for July 2026 is available. In August, the graduation season effect is expected to gradually fade, but core city rents are likely to continue rising supported by the housing demand from school-age families. The window for concentrated rental demand during the graduation season in August is nearing its end, and overall market activity is likely to decline compared to July. However, the previously accumulated recovery momentum will still support key cities rents, with a high probability that rents in the 50 cities will show general stabilization. From a city-specific perspective, first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Suzhou, and Chengdu, which have solid industrial foundations, strong population absorption capabilities, and quality educational resources, are expected to continue rising in rents due to the effects of graduation demand and the housing needs of school-age families. However, most ordinary second-tier and third-fourth tier cities may still face adjustment pressures due to ample supply, although the downward space has clearly narrowed. Overall, differentiation will remain the main theme of the rental market, with the housing rental market in August likely continuing the pattern of "overall stabilization, structural differentiation, and continued increase in first-tier cities."