The AI shopping boom ignites an $8 billion new arena: retailers compete for chat Siasun Robot & Automation's recommendations, with data sovereignty becoming the focal point of the battle.

As consumers increasingly turn to ChatGPT and Alphabet Inc. Class C Gemini for shopping advice, a retail industry skirmish is intensifying over traffic sources and customer data. Retailers such as Walmart Inc. (WMT.US), Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US), and Wayfair (W.US) are optimizing their websites in hopes of achieving high rankings in AI chat search results. According to Juniper Research, retail spending guided by AI agents like Anthropic's Claude and Gemini is projected to reach $8 billion this year. Meanwhile, data from Adobe Analytics shows that 41% of U.S. consumers used generative AI for online shopping in June, with AI-driven visitors generating 41% higher revenue per order than traditional channels. AI recommendation traffic is undergoing explosive growth, highlighting conversion rate advantages. AI shopping assistants are reshaping the structure of e-commerce traffic at an unprecedented rate. Bain & Company's "Smart Business" report, set to be released in May 2026, indicates that shopping recommendations from ChatGPT have more than doubled year-over-year in the U.S., U.K., Germany, and France, with some retailers reporting that AI has already contributed to 25% of their referral traffic. The Bain survey also found that 30% to 45% of U.S. consumers have used AI tools during the shopping process, and 64% of consumers reported having used or being willing to try AI for shopping. Adobe's data is even more staggering: in Q1 2026, AI-driven online shopping traffic surged 393% year-over-year, and this momentum continued even after the holiday season. The conversion rate for AI-recommended traffic is 42% higher than that of non-AI traffic, a phenomenal turnaround from "38% lower" in March 2025. Shopify's data further corroborates this trend: in Q1 2026, AI-referred orders on the platform grew nearly 13 times year-over-year, with conversion rates nearly 50% higher and average order values up 14%. Josh Friedman, Head of Digital and E-commerce at Ulta Beauty, stated that consumers discovering their products through Gemini and ChatGPT have seen conversion rates and purchasing intentions double. The company is collaborating with Alphabet Inc. Class C to integrate its shopping cart and Ulta Beauty Rewards membership program into Gemini's AI shopping platform. The "power play" of AI traffic sources: open web vs. walled garden. In the realm of AI shopping, tech giants and e-commerce platforms exhibit starkly different strategic orientations. Represented by OpenAI and Alphabet Inc. Class C, one side opts for complete openness, allowing natural language interactions and intelligent recommendations to access product information and shopping scenarios across platforms and channels. To date, approximately 20% of ChatGPT's referral traffic directs to Etsy, 15% to Target, and 10% to eBay. On the other hand, traditional platforms represented by Amazon.com, Inc. and eBay adopt a relatively closed strategy. Amazon.com, Inc. restricts ChatGPT and Gemini from scraping its platform product data via technical means while accelerating the development of its own AI shopping assistant, Rufus. By early 2026, Rufus had been used by over 300 million customers, with shoppers utilizing the assistant experiencing about a 60% higher purchase conversion rate. In the past year, sales driven by Rufus have increased by nearly $12 billion. Data from Sensor Tower reveals that heavy Amazon.com, Inc. users now employ Rufus in about 60% of shopping sessions, with shoppers using the assistant being 2.74 times more likely to make a purchase. Vince Koh, AWS Global Digital Commerce Lead at Amazon.com, Inc., clearly stated, When shoppers complete purchases on the brand's own website... the retailer maintains a direct relationship with that customer. AWS is encouraging retail clients to leverage AI platforms to promote products while ensuring their own websites remain the best place to buy. Retailers' counteroffensive: proprietary AI assistants and data moats. In the face of AI platforms siphoning traffic, retailers are fortifying their defenses from two directions. First, developing proprietary AI shopping assistants. Walmart Inc. has launched a generative AI-driven shopping assistant, Sparky, which has been integrated into the Walmart Inc. App. Users of Sparky have an average order value about 35% higher, and weekly active users have more than doubled in the most recent quarter. Walmart Inc. has also adopted an "embedded" strategyintroducing Sparky into the ChatGPT and Alphabet Inc. Class C Gemini platforms to directly assist consumers in AI chats. Second, deepening data moats. Retailers generally believe they understand their products and customers better than general AI tools, creating a unique competitive advantage. Raina Moskowitz, CEO of wedding planning platform The Knot, stated, LLM is another starting point, another search point, another planning point, but we have 30 years of data to help couples coordinate their weddings. Koh pointed out that when shoppers search for specific products on the Kate Spade website, retailers can utilize browsing history, budget, and style preferences to deliver personalized recommendations and build loyalty. The dream of instant checkout shattered: OpenAI's strategic turnaround and retailers temporary victory. The most emblematic event occurred in March 2026. OpenAI officially terminated the "Instant Checkout" feature of ChatGPT, no longer supporting users to complete orders and payments directly in AI conversations, instead redirecting users to third-party e-commerce platforms to complete transactions. One of the immediate reasons for this decision was the disappointing conversion rate data. Walmart Inc. executives revealed that the conversion rate for the embedded instant checkout function in ChatGPT was only one-third of that for transactions initiated via the official website, a drop of 66%. An OpenAI spokesperson described this adjustment as a strategic shift: Instant checkout is transitioning to applications where purchases can be made more seamlessly. Etsy's practices validate this logic. As one of the first integration partners for ChatGPT's instant checkout, Etsy observed that ChatGPT excels in product discovery. Etsy's Chief Product and Technology Officer Rafe Colburn noted that users who find products through ChatGPT typically return to the Etsy website to complete their purchases and remarked, This marks the beginning of a deeper relationship, rather than merely a relationship always mediated by ChatGPT. In May of this year, Etsy launched a native application within ChatGPT, further reinforcing its positioning as a "discovery layer" rather than "checkout destination." Retailers' "temporary advantage": data sovereignty remains a moat. In the wave of AI shopping assistants, retailers currently maintain a key advantage: consumers still prefer to complete purchases on the retailers' own websites. While traffic brought by AI platforms is growing rapidly, the final point of the conversion funnelthe checkout processremains firmly in the hands of retailers. Therefore, in this data battle, loyalty programs are becoming the most powerful moat for retailers. For example, Ulta Beauty boasts over 47 million loyalty program members, with 95% of sales completed through the loyalty program. The company is working with Alphabet Inc. Class C to integrate shopping carts and the Ulta Beauty Rewards loyalty program into Geminis AI shopping experience. At the same time, Ulta has launched its proprietary AI shopping assistant "Ulta AI," built on Gemini Enterprise. The underlying logic of this strategy is that even if shoppers discover products through AI platforms, loyalty points and personalized experiences will still drive them back to the retailer's own channels to complete transactions. As one industry observer said, "Loyalty data has become the new currency in the age of AIwhoever can capture the most first-party shopping data can train the most accurate recommendation algorithms." As Friedman from Ulta Beauty remarked, Whether it's Alphabet Inc. Class C search, affiliate marketing, or Facebook, interacting with customers on someone elses platform always comes at a cost. I dont think there's any difference. Retailers are willing to "pay taxes" on AI platforms in exchange for traffic, but refuse to relinquish control over customer relationships. However, this battle is far from over. Bain & Company predicts that by 2030, artificial intelligence could impact 25% of e-commerce business in the United States. A report from NielsenIQ indicates that within AI-driven e-commerce, AI agents are starting to become actual decision-makers, assessing on behalf of consumersand often comparing across multiple retailers simultaneously. As AI agents evolve from "recommenders" to "decision-makers," retailers brand premiums and customer loyalty will face unprecedented challenges.