CMSC International: July sales of leading autonomous vehicle manufacturers continued to grow, with performance among new forces showing differentiation.

CMSC International released a research report stating that in July, the sales of leading domestic auto manufacturers continued to grow, with a distinct performance among the new forces. LEAPMOTOR (09863) has for the first time surpassed monthly sales of 100,000 units. Exports remain the clearest source of structural increases, with Chery (09973), BYD COMPANY (01211), GEELY AUTO (00175), and Great Wall Motor (02333) leading in overseas sales ratio. Among the leading domestic manufacturers, the July sales figures for BYD Company Limited, Geely, Chery, and Great Wall were 419,000, 250,000, 262,000, and 108,000 units respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 22%, 5%, 24%, and 4%. Among the new forces, the sales figures for Leapmotor, Hongmeng Zhixing, XPENG-W (09868), NIO (09866), ZEEKR, LI AUTO-W (02015), XIAOMI-W (01810), Deep Blue, Jihu, and Lantu (07489) were 101,300, 45,000, 38,000, 35,900, 35,800, 30,500, more than 30,000, 29,200, 23,500, and 13,200 units respectively; the highest year-on-year growth rates were recorded by ZEEKR (+150%), Jihu (+111%), and Leapmotor (+102%); among them, Leapmotor has for the first time surpassed 100,000 units, significantly leading among new force auto manufacturers. The report indicates that during the mid-year reporting period, negative factors have largely been mitigated, and there is a medium to long-term focus on investment strategies regarding capacity going overseas. Given the lower year-on-year base in the second half of the year, a larger scale of subsidy funding, stronger peak season effects, and potential consumption surges triggered by disruptions in subsidies next year, there is an expectation of marginal improvement in the industry in the second half. During the mid-year report in August, the most negative factors regarding domestic demand weakness are expected to clear, making the capacity going overseas a new strategic focus for auto manufacturers. The report predicts that next year's market trend will shift to "domestic demand steady, overseas strength," and looks favorably at three mainlines: upgrading of new energy structures, market expansion of high-end brands, and promotion of localized production overseas. This is currently a good opportunity for medium-term investments in quality companies, especially those leading in capacity going overseas. For the offshore capacity theme, it is favorable for leading companies with significant overseas scales, with a strong recommendation for a basket of GEELY AUTO, BYD Company Limited, and Chery for overseas expansion, followed by smaller but promising new forces such as XPENG and Leapmotor.