A-share "Yi Zhongtian" collectively responds to the U.S. ban on optical modules; institutions expect a low probability of policy implementation.

On August 5, the A-share telecommunications equipment sector opened lower today, with subsequent declines collectively narrowing. Market news suggests that the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is drafting a ban aimed at prohibiting the import of new types of Chinese data center components, including optical modules. However, several institutions believe that leading domestic companies account for over 70% of the global high-speed optical module production capacity, holding a core competitive advantage, and solely relying on North American production may fail to meet demand; thus, the likelihood of this policy being implemented is considered low. According to media reports, informed sources revealed that the Trump administration is drafting a ban intended to prohibit the import of new types of Chinese data center components, aiming to protect the infrastructure that supports the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. The FCC, which regulates the U.S. telecommunications industry, is formulating this measure to ban the import of new Chinese optical modules (transceivers). U.S. officials hope to release the bill this year, at which point it will officially take effect. Informed sources emphasized that the FCC may still modify or postpone this restrictive measure. On the same day, media contacted the boards of directors of Zhongji Innolight, Eoptolink Technology Inc., and Suzhou TFC Optical Communication. A staff member from Zhongji Innolight (300308.SZ) stated that the company has noted the relevant market information and verified that the FCC has not issued any restrictive documents in this area. The official stated, "Since the FCC has not issued any restrictive documents in this area, the company will not comment on the related rumors." A staff member from Eoptolink Technology Inc. (300502.SZ) said that the company has paid attention to the aforementioned news, and it will closely monitor any impacts. "Currently, this news does not have an authoritative source, but if it meets the information disclosure standards, the company will respond through announcements or other means." A staff member from Suzhou TFC Optical Communication (300394.SZ) stated that the impact of the relevant news on the company is mainly reflected in market sentiment, and the extent of its impact depends on whether the market rumors are true. "The company specializes in optical devices, and optical modules are our downstream customers." Industry insiders state that seven of the top ten optical module manufacturers globally are from China, and Chinese manufacturers account for 70% of shipments in high-speed optical modules such as 800G and 1.6T, while U.S. manufacturers face limitations in production capacity and technological advancement. Additionally, historical circumstances suggest that the possibility of strictly prohibiting the import of Chinese optical modules is low. This is due to the opposition from U.S. cloud companies. Therefore, even if related policies are introduced, it is expected that there will be many exemptions. The CITIC SEC telecommunications team interprets that the vast majority of global high-speed optical modules currently come from Chinese manufacturers, and relying solely on overseas manufacturers cannot support North American demand. The cost of completely replacing existing stock is unimaginable; thus, the related restrictions will ultimately have a limited impact despite the initial highlights. CICC stated that the core function of optical modules is to convert optical signals and does not involve the storage of business data. Compared to active devices, they have distinct differences in risk boundaries and attack capabilities.