Starlink's super grand plan targets traditional telecom empires! SpaceX (SPCX.US) has ambitious aspirations for a "unified space and Earth" aiming at a $600 billion market.
SpaceX outlined its plan to directly compete with the largest carriers in the United States by building a ground-based mobile network and a satellite service program.
Elon Musk's American super technology giant SpaceX (SPCX.US), focused on "AI + space exploration," detailed its ambitions for direct competition with the largest telecommunications operators in the U.S. during its performance conference call after the market closed on Tuesday. The company aims to advance high-efficiency satellite communication services while building ground mobile networks.
SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell stated during her first earnings call as part of a publicly traded company: "The three major telecom operators in the U.S.AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobilecollectively represent a market size of approximately $600 billion annually. I expect we can attract a significant portion of that market because I believe our satellite services will be superior."
Following these remarks, shares of AT&T Inc. (T.US), Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ.US), and T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS.US) all faced significant declines in after-hours trading.
SpaceX has already enabled satellite data to be transmitted directly to smartphones via Starlink, thereby helping to fill critical network signal blind spots in existing ground networks. Constructing ground communication infrastructure, including cellular communication towers, will allow the company to compete more effectively against operators that rely on long-term customer contracts and have deep market presence.
Shotwell mentioned during the call: "We have a clear plan to build ground network infrastructure. Therefore, users will not only obtain connectivity capabilities from the satellites themselves, but we will also build the hardware and systems necessary for true mobile communication services."
SpaceX Declares War on the $600 Billion Traditional Mobile Communication Market
SpaceX has explicitly proposed building a hybrid system of "satellite direct connection + ground mobile network," supported by EchoStar's spectrum assets; its strategic identity is shifting from a complement to traditional operators' coverage to a formidable challenger directly competing for U.S. mobile users, pricing power, and network access from the three major traditional telecom operators.
SpaceX's strategy to challenge AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile is no longer limited to supplementing coverage in remote areas with Starlink, but is attempting to create a true satellite-ground integrated mobile operator: the first layer involves hundreds of Direct-to-Cell satellites acting as "space base stations," directly connecting ordinary 4G phones and eliminating traditional cellular network blind spots; the second layer utilizes wireless spectrum acquired from EchoStar to launch its own Starlink Mobile retail service; the third layer involves building ground infrastructure such as cellular base stations, core networks, backhaul links, and billing systems, providing capacity in urban and high-traffic areas, thereby gradually evolving from T-Mobile's satellite coverage partner to a national integrated network capable of directly competing for customers from the three major operators.
Notably, the U.S. FCC has approved the relevant spectrum transfer and required SpaceX to fulfill its network construction commitments, indicating that the aforementioned SpaceX Starlink vision is transitioning from a commercial declaration into the execution phase for spectrum and infrastructure.
The first quarterly financial report after going public reinforced the financial credibility of this strategy: SpaceX's second-quarter revenue surged from $4.1 billion to $7.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 92%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of $6.9 billion; Starlink contributed over half of the revenue, with its income increasing by 66% and operating profit rising by 79%, while the user base doubled to 12 million, continuing to serve as the cash flow and profitability engine for the entire SpaceX system.
Meanwhile, SpaceX is collaborating with NVIDIA Corporation to design computational payloads for its Starmind AI1 orbital computing satellite, planning to use NVIDIA Corporation chips to build a space data center; Starship is responsible for the low-cost, large-scale transport of higher bandwidth communication satellites, CECEP Solar Energy arrays, heat sinks, and AI servers. This creates a vertical closed-loop where "reusable rockets reduce launch costsStarlink establishes a global networkmobile communication expands user base and cash floworbital computing increases high-value data services." SpaceX's goals have transitioned from just telecommunications operators to becoming a global communications and AI computing infrastructure platform.
Satellite direct connection is just the prelude to the grand vision of satellite internet; the ground network is the ultimate goal for Starlink.
Ordinary 4G/5G smartphones can already connect to satellites via Starlink Direct to Cell, but essentially, it currently acts as a "space base station," using the mobile spectrum of partner operators to provide SMS, some application data, and emergency connections in areas without ground signals and unobstructed skies; however, its bandwidth, indoor coverage, capacity, and latency are still significantly weaker than traditional cellular networks, with some applications unable to function properly.
The so-called "ground network," on which SpaceX is increasingly focusing, involves building base stations, core networks, fiber backhaul, and urban high-density capacity, intended to support voice, high-definition video, and massive concurrent users; thus, satellite direct connection solves the "whether there is a signal" problem in remote areas, while the ground network addresses the issue of "whether the signal is fast enough and stable enough" in densely populated urban areas. It is only by combining the two that SpaceX can upgrade from being a supplementary coverage partner of AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile to a true integrated mobile operator.
The core advantage of satellite internet over traditional operators is that its coverage expansion does not require the gradual construction of towers, fiber optics, and data centers, enabling rapid access to mountainous regions, oceans, aerospace, disaster areas, and low-population density regions, and improving network resilience through satellite redundancy; however, its disadvantages are also clear: limited spectrum and individual satellite beam capacity, which results in significantly lower unit area capacity compared to ground cells during times of high user density, weaker connections in indoor and obstructed environments, as well as constraints from latency, power consumption, terminal uplink capability, and satellite replacement costs.
This is why pure satellite networks are more suitable for addressing whether "there is communication signal," whereas ground networks excel in ensuring that "millions of users can access high-speed internet simultaneously" in cities; the most competitive form is not the complete replacement of cellular networks by satellites, but rather the integration of satellites, spectrum, and portions of the ground network controlled by SpaceX into a seamless service. AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile have also announced joint investments in D2D satellite technology, indicating that traditional operators' counterattacks are also heading towards space-ground integration rather than rigidly adhering to purely ground networks.
The most optimistic public price target for SpaceX on Wall Street comes from Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale, who gives a target price of $800 with a "strong buy" rating. Based on the latest stock price of approximately $125.33, the theoretical upside potential is about 538%; assuming the IPO price of $135 corresponds to a valuation of $1.75 trillion and that the share capital remains basically unchanged, the $800 target roughly corresponds to a valuation of $10.4 trillion to $10.5 trillion. However, this is significantly higher than market consensus, representing an extreme bullish scenario. The average target price among Wall Street analysts is around $228 to $237. Raymond James effectively bets on SpaceX ultimately becoming a "century-level infrastructure platform" covering global communications, ultra-low-cost space transportation, and orbital AI computing, assuming that Starship achieves full reusability, space data centers scale up, and the company experiences exponential revenue growth around 2031.
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