GF SEC: Capital expenditure drives the expansion of logistics demand in the semiconductor industry, while specialization and domestic substitution open up growth opportunities.

GF SEC has published a research report stating that semiconductor products require multiple cross-border and cross-factory transfers throughout their lifecycle, from design, wafer manufacturing, packaging, and testing to end applications. This results in three main logistics segments: transportation of raw materials, transportation of equipment and finished products, and intelligent in-plant logistics. The upward trend in capital expenditure within the semiconductor supply chain is expected to gradually influence the turnover of raw materials, the cross-border transportation of equipment and finished products, and the demand for automated handling in wafer factories, leading to an improvement in the specialized logistics sector. The main points of GF SEC are as follows: Capital expenditure in the supply chain resonates with the expansion of wafer factories, and the demand for semiconductor logistics is expected to grow steadily. The high demand for AI computing power is driving the expansion of advanced processes and packaging. According to Futurum, the total capital expenditure of the world's top five cloud service giants is expected to exceed $600 billion by 2026. At the same time, local wafer factories are continuously advancing capacity construction, with new or expanded fabs simultaneously increasing demand for raw material distribution, equipment installation, finished product transportation, and AMHS system configuration. According to Mordor Intelligence and Zhiyan Consulting data, the global semiconductor logistics market size is estimated to be approximately $86.55 billion by 2026, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.12% from 2026 to 2031. Based on the same logistics ratio, it is estimated that the size of the semiconductor logistics market in China will reach approximately 149.5 billion yuan by 2025. Transportation of raw materials With strong regulation and the highly pure and hazardous nature of chemicals, the industry share is expected to concentrate towards specialized service providers. Semiconductor raw materials span various categories including electronic special gases, photoresists, wet electronic chemicals, silicon wafers, and polishing materials, which impose stringent requirements regarding the qualification for transporting hazardous goods, temperature and humidity control, shock-proof equipment, and full traceability. Transportation of equipment and finished products The upgrading of export structures, coupled with constraints on widebody transportation capacity, presents growth opportunities for high-value air logistics. Photolithography machines, wafers, and finished chips are characterized by high value, time-sensitive requirements, and precision fragility, making them highly dependent on specialized transportation equipment, air freight capacity, and cross-border service networks. The growth in exports of high-tech products and integrated circuits from China brings structural increments to air cargo; simultaneously, the expansion of global cargo aircraft and passenger aircraft bellyhold capacity is constrained, with the supply growth rate expected to lag behind the growth rate of freight demand. Intelligent in-plant logistics The expansion of wafer factories is driving demand for AMHS (Automated Material Handling Systems), and the domestic substitution is entering a phase of acceleration. According to the prospectus of Mifei Technology, the global AMHS market size is projected to reach $4.053 billion by 2025, with Japan's Daifuku and Murata Machinery collectively holding nearly 90% of the global market share, while the domestic market's localization rate remains relatively low. According to SEMI, the compound annual growth rate of equipment expenditure for global 300mm wafer fabrication facilities is expected to reach 9% from 2026 to 2028, with expenditure on equipment for processes below 10nm even reaching a CAGR of 37%. Risk warnings Risks of semiconductor supply chain capital expenditures and capacity expansions falling short of expectations; risks related to international trade and export controls; intensified industry competition and fluctuations in air cargo rates; risks of domestic substitution for AMHS and business expansion falling short of expectations; and safety risks in the operation of hazardous chemicals and precision logistics.