Sealand: AIDC Liquid Cooling Permeability Improvement Expected to Benefit Core Component Suppliers

Sealand has released a research report stating that the demand trend for AI-driven data center liquid cooling is becoming clear, with core component manufacturers entering a period of performance release. According to their calculations, the global market size for core components of data center liquid cooling will reach $61.1 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 33% from 2026 to 2030. The industry is expected to remain in a high prosperity zone for a considerable time, and they maintain a "recommended" rating for the dedicated equipment industry. Sealand's main points are as follows: Driving Factors: Enhanced computing power drives increased energy consumption + PUE requirements rise + TCO cost advantages boost AIDC liquid cooling penetration 1) The increase in AI computing power leads to higher chip and server power consumption. The dominance of training in large AI models is shifting to inference, with the density of intelligent tasks continuously rising, pushing single-chip TDP from 700W for H100 to 2300W for Rubin. The power density of a single cabinet has broken through the limits of air cooling, making liquid cooling transition from an "optional configuration" to a "necessary solution." 2) Requirements for PUE in large data centers are increasing both domestically and internationally. China mandates that newly constructed large data centers have a PUE below 1.3, while Germany has legislated that existing data centers must achieve a PUE below 1.3 after July 2030, with new data centers required to maintain a PUE 1.2 starting from July 2026, making liquid cooling more capable of meeting these requirements. 3) The total cost of ownership (TCO) advantage is significant. According to IIM and Kezhi Consulting, TCO for liquid cooling solutions is 19%-24% lower than air cooling within a three-year period, with investment cost recovery typically achievable in about two years. Technical Path: Cold plates as the mainstream solution in the short term, coexisting with immersion cooling in the medium to long term In the short term, cold plate solutions remain mainstream, benefiting from: 1) NVIDIA's GB200/GB300/Rubin platforms mandating liquid cooling, with cold plates expected to see earlier volume increases. 2) Significant retrofit demand for existing data centers, with lower costs for cold plate modifications. 3) Policy-driven pressure from PUE red lines. In the medium to long term, cold plates and immersion cooling are likely to coexist. Market Space: Global core component market for data center liquid cooling is expected to reach $19.5 billion in 2026 and $61.1 billion in 2030 Core components of cold plate liquid cooling systems include cold plates, CDU, quick connectors, and manifolds, with value concentrated primarily in cold plates and CDU. The core components of immersion cooling include coolant, CDU, and liquid cooling tanks, also focused on coolant and CDU. It is expected that the new power for data centers will increase year by year and that liquid cooling penetration will rise. The report projects that the liquid cooling core component market will reach $61.1 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 33% from 2026 to 2030. The optical module liquid cooling market is expected to grow from $2 billion to $8 billion (CAGR 42%), and the CDU liquid cooling pump market is projected to reach $6.6 billion by 2030. Competitive Landscape: Demand side presents a "NVIDIA chain + Google chain + Huawei chain" landscape with one leader and many strong players, while the supply side sees rapid breakthroughs in domestic substitution NVIDIA dominates the global GPU market and adopts a multi-layered gradual certification system. DIGITIMES observes that Googles TPU is expected to capture a 46% market share in the high-end ASIC market by 2026. According to AIX Financial News, Huawei's Ascend ranks first among domestic brands, establishing a localized ecosystem with an emphasis on vertical integration and strategic alliances. On the supply side, the CDU market is led by international giants like Vertiv, while Shenzhen Envicool Technology stands as a domestic leader and has obtained Tier 1 certification from NVIDIA; in the liquid cooling pump sector, Feilong Auto Components and Zhejiang Dayuan Pumps Industry are rapidly entering the supply chains of top domestic and international clients, highlighting significant potential for domestic substitution. Risk Warnings: Risks of data center installation volumes being lower than expected; policy risks; risks of key companies performances not meeting expectations; risks of significant product price fluctuations; risks of new capacity construction falling short of expectations; risks of project delays, inability to implement projects, or failure to generate expected returns; risks of discrepancies between data statistical calculations and actual conditions.