CMSC: Approval of Normalization Marks the Beginning of a Peak in Nuclear Power Plant Production

CMSC released a research report stating that during the State Council meeting on July 31, four nuclear power projects, including Phase I of the Zhuanghai project in Liaoning, were approved, totaling 8 nuclear power units with a combined installed capacity of approximately 10.48 million kilowatts, continuing to maintain a high approval rate. The agency believes that a top-level design will clarify the active, safe, and orderly development of nuclear power through legal and planning forms. From 2026 to 2030, China is expected to enter a peak production period, and nuclear power operators will have considerable installed capacity flexibility; against the backdrop of the large-scale application of (third-generation indigenous) technology, the entire industry chain is expected to welcome a high prosperity cycle, with long-term optimism regarding the investment value of nuclear power operators. The main viewpoints of CMSC are as follows: Top-level design promotes the active, safe, and orderly development of nuclear power. China resumed approval of nuclear power projects in 2019, with approvals of no less than 10 units over four consecutive years from 2022 to 2025. This time, a total of 8 units were approved, maintaining a high approval volume. On the policy level, the Atomic Energy Law will officially take effect in January 2026, for the first time clarifying through a fundamental and comprehensive law the country's active, safe, and orderly development of nuclear power, encouraging the application of advanced reactors, and covering the nuclear fuel cycle, spent fuel management, radioactive waste, decommissioning, and comprehensive utilization; the "14th Five-Year Plan" for building a new energy system and the "14th Five-Year" carbon peaking action plan both propose that by 2030, the installed capacity of operational nuclear power will reach approximately 110 million kilowatts. As of June 30, 2026, there are 62 operational nuclear power units in China, with an installed capacity of 66.14 million kilowatts, corresponding to around 44 million kilowatts of production space in the next four years, suggesting that nuclear power is likely to welcome a "dual peak" in construction and operation. From 2026 to 2030, the peak production period will occur, and nuclear power operators will have considerable installed capacity flexibility. China National Nuclear Power: A peak in production is expected in 2027. As of the end of June, the company holds 27 operational nuclear units, with an installed capacity of 26.212 million kilowatts. There are 18 units under construction and awaiting approval, with an installed capacity of 20.675 million kilowatts. Among them, Unit 7 of the Tianwan nuclear power plant and the Hainan small reactor are expected to be put into operation in 2026, with a total installed capacity of 1.39 million kilowatts. From 2027 to 2030, it is expected to put into operation 4/2/3/1 units respectively, corresponding to an annual increase of 5.04/2.565/3.715/1.215 million kilowatts, with increases of 18%/8%/11%/3%; if all units are operated as planned, by 2030, the company will have reached an operational installed capacity of 40.138 million kilowatts, an increase of 13.926 million kilowatts or 53.1% compared to the current capacity. In 2027, the concentrated operation of Units 3 and 4 of the Sanmen plant, Unit 8 of the Tianwan plant, and Unit 3 of the Xudabao plant will mark the companys first peak in production. CGN Power Co., Ltd.: A peak in production is expected in 2030. As of the end of June, the company manages 30 operational nuclear power units, with an installed capacity of 34.248 million kilowatts. There are 18 units under construction and awaiting approval, with an installed capacity of 21.812 million kilowatts, including Unit 2 of the Huizhou plant, expected to be operational in the second half of 2026, with an installed capacity of 1.202 million kilowatts. From 2027 to 2030, it is anticipated to add 2/1/1/5 units respectively, corresponding to annual additions of 2.41/1.20/1.21/6.12 million kilowatts, with increases of 7%/3%/3%/15%; if all units are operated as planned, by 2030, the company will have an operational installed capacity of 46.392 million kilowatts, a 35.5% increase from the current level. In 2030, Units 1 and 2 of the Lufeng plant, Unit 3 of the Huizhou plant, Unit 6 of the Ningde plant, and Unit 3 of the Cangnan plant will see concentrated production. Sustaining high approval rates, the industry is entering a period of high prosperity. China's indigenous third-generation nuclear power technology has progressed from demonstration projects to large-scale applications, with "Hualong One" having entered the multi-base mass construction stage and "Guohe One" transitioning from demonstration projects to standardization and mass promotion. This time, the approval of 8 units offers the possibility of a second batch of approvals within the year, likely maintaining a normalized approval pace of over 10 units. The agency pointed out that this approval has three major highlights: The Phase II of Jin Qimen and Phase III of Taipingling adopt the "Hualong One Technology Integration Plan 2.0," applying advanced technology in intelligent control, modular construction, and enhancing safety, advancement, and economic efficiency across the board; Phase I of Laiyang adopts the high-power passive pressurized water reactor "Guohe One" technology, marking the first large-scale construction project of "Guohe One" following the Shandong Rongcheng demonstration project; the Zhuanghai nuclear power project receives approval for the first time, with Phase I adopting the currently mass-built "Hualong One" technology, which is expected to further expand the long-term growth space of China National Nuclear Power. Risk Warning Risks of safe and stable operation of nuclear power units; risks from project construction falling short of expectations; risks of decreasing electricity prices.