Asian stock markets rebounded to end three consecutive declines! Middle East mediation efforts are pushing oil prices lower, and the market is waiting for AI to welcome the "big test" of financial reports.

On Tuesday, as efforts to mediate in the Middle East pushed oil prices down from their one-month high, Asian stock markets ended a three-day decline. At the same time, investors are preparing to welcome the upcoming corporate earnings season to test whether the currently pressured artificial intelligence (AI) investment theme still has momentum. In the stock market, the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan stock index rose by over 2%, ending the previous three consecutive trading days of decline. The Japanese and South Korean stock markets rose significantly. The Nikkei 225 index rose by 3.26%, Kioxia surged by 14%, and Softbank rose by 6.1%. The KOSPI in South Korea rose by 3.56%, SK Hynix rose by 4%, and Samsung Electronics rose by 6.1%. The four major A-share indexes also rose collectively. Meanwhile, as of the time of writing, the futures of the three major US stock indices were all rising. In recent weeks, global stock markets have experienced intense volatility due to the drag caused by the correction in technology stocks, particularly chip stocks. Investors have been increasingly concerned about overvaluation, profit growth prospects, and whether the massive investment in AI infrastructure will eventually bring tangible returns. Regarding the rebound in Asian stock markets on Tuesday, Chalu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Shengbao Bank, said, "This seems more like a technical rebound rather than a signal that risks have been completely resolved. If oil prices remain under control and technology company earnings can validate the logic of AI capital expenditure, then the rebound may continue, but both premises are still very fragile." It is reported that amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, efforts are being made to restore a fragile ceasefire agreement. Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan, and other intermediaries have proposed a 10-day ceasefire to the US and Iran. The Trump administration is studying the possibility of a ceasefire and is also preparing for a full-scale war. According to sources in the Middle East region, "We have told the US and Iran to propose a cooling-off period." The report indicated that the US military may continue to bomb Iran for several days before seriously considering the proposal. While the Trump administration studies the 10-day ceasefire proposal, it also urges Israel not to take actions that would "close diplomatic windows." If the US and Iran reach a 10-day ceasefire agreement, negotiations will be held during this period for a long-term arrangement in the Strait of Hormuz. One negotiation scenario would allow Iran to collect a "reasonable service fee" for maritime security, environmental protection, etc. Another scenario would involve pooling related costs into a joint fund managed by the International Maritime Organization. As investors hope for a de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East, Brent crude oil futures fell by over 1%, to $88.27 per barrel at the time of writing. The previous trading day, Brent crude oil futures reached as high as $91.42 per barrel, the highest level in a month. Nick Twidell, Chief Market Strategist at ATFX Global in Sydney, said, "I think the current situation is very strange. Investors are still trying to remain optimistic because a few months ago we went through a similar situation, and they hope that the end result can be repeated." However, Twidell said that concerns about the situation getting out of control and conflicts spreading further throughout the Middle East are likely to be escalating, "I think as long as another triggering factor appears, market sentiment could quickly get out of control, and the situation will escalate rapidly." Meanwhile, investors are focusing on the upcoming earnings reports from tech giants such as Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) and Intel Corporation (INTC.US) to determine whether the AI investment theme still has room for further growth amidst high expectations for second-quarter earnings in the market. In the backdrop of intensified political turmoil at GEO Group Inc and a sharp correction in AI trading, the performance and future outlook of these tech giants will be a key pricing point to test whether the unprecedented capital expenditure on AI computing power can be translated into actual revenue, cash flow, and investment return, ultimately determining whether the current wave of AI trading sell-off is nearing its end. Despite strong earnings reported by Samsung Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, they still failed to meet investors' high expectations, highlighting the challenges the entire industry is facing. Fred Neumann, Chief Asian Economist at HSBC Hong Kong, said, "Although demand for AI hardware remains exceptionally strong, businesses are struggling to meet market demands, but investors' expectations for performance are getting higher, meaning that even a slight adjustment in earnings expectations could have an impact." As tensions escalate between the US and Iran, concerns about inflation are rekindled in the market, pushing up US Treasury yields. Neumann added, "The macroeconomic environment is becoming more complex. Rising energy prices and higher interest rates make the economic outlook more challenging, which also means that even the AI hardware industry cannot escape the impact of these macro factors entirely."