Before the market opened on Monday, the weather changed.

The risk level for Monday's opening needs to be raised. This time it's not just a regular "Middle East escalation", but entering a more sensitive stage: if the US military suffers direct casualties, the market will immediately reprice the level of US retaliation. The script for Monday's opening has completely changed: According to the Associated Press, the US military confirmed that two American soldiers were killed, four were injured, and one is missing after Iran launched attacks on Jordan. Iran announced on Saturday that they will no longer abide by the terms of the temporary peace agreement. First, the news of US military casualties this time has escalated the war to a whole new intensity. In the past, the market could still understand the US-Iran conflict as a "controllable escalation": you hit me, I hit you back, oil prices rise for a while, then negotiations cool down. If there weren't any US military casualties, the White House could still choose to exercise restraint, send negotiation signals, and provide a buffer for the market. But with American casualties, the pressure on Trump has increased exponentially, and it's difficult to respond just with words, he needs to make a "equivalent or even double" military response. Now the market is not concerned about what Iran says, but where the US will strike next. If the response extends to Iran's energy, ports, and maritime transportation, the risk premium on crude oil will rapidly increase. Second, just on Friday the market had raised concerns about AI to new heights, and now concerns about the Middle East conflict have also escalated to new heights. It is particularly noteworthy that the market's decline last Friday was driven purely by liquidity stampedes and valuation bubbles, and oil prices did not rise much that day (geopolitics was not even the core issue at the time). In the past, the market always treated AI and energy as two separate logics. But if oil prices surge on Monday, these two lines will intersect for the first time, triggering a rebalancing of assets across the entire market. Third, according to our survey released on Saturday, investors are slightly bearish on gold prices next week (42% bullish, 40% bearish), strongly bullish on oil prices next week (70% bullish, 18% bearish), and bearish on the US stock market (28% bullish, 63% bearish). The market is currently sliding toward a very tricky and dangerous pricing logic. Fourth, Asian markets will first bear the pressure for US stocks on Monday because the US market has not opened yet. South Korea is the most sensitive because it is at the forefront of the AI deleveraging trend. The A-shares will be relatively stable, but AI and semiconductors will also be affected by the drag of South Korea and Taiwan. What the market is really afraid of is the war altering the inflation path; what is truly dangerous is AI experiencing a pullback when oil prices surge. If these two lines exert force simultaneously, the market will enter a more complex repricing. This article is reposted from the WeChat public account "Wall Street Intelligence Circle", author: The Greatest Trader; GMTEight editor: Yan Wencai.