U.S. July consumer confidence rises to five-month high, consumers still concerned about rising inflation.

Boosted by the fall in gasoline prices, consumer confidence in the United States rose to its highest level in five months in early July. However, concerns about future inflation still exist, with the escalation of the situation in the Middle East pushing up energy prices and adding uncertainty to future price trends. Preliminary data released by the University of Michigan on Friday showed that the consumer confidence index for July rose from 49.5 in June to 54.4, not only reaching a new five-month high but also exceeding the expectations of all economists surveyed by the media. The data showed that from June to early July, gasoline prices in the United States continued to fall, easing the pressure on household living costs, which was a major factor driving the improvement in consumer confidence. However, with the conflict in the Middle East escalating again recently, oil prices have risen again, intensifying concerns about future inflation prospects in the market. The survey was conducted from June 23 to July 13, but more than 70% of respondents completed the questionnaire before the United States launched military strikes against Iran in early July, so the survey results have not fully reflected the impact of the recent escalation in geopolitics. The report showed that this round of improvement in consumer confidence covered different age groups, income levels, and political positions, showing a more widespread warming trend. In terms of inflation expectations, consumers expect prices to rise by 4.2% in the next year, lower than 4.6% in June, and long-term inflation expectations for the next five to ten years remain at 3.3%, unchanged from last month. Joanne Hsu, head of the University of Michigan Consumer Survey, said consumers are still generally concerned that future inflation pressures may rise again. She pointed out that more and more consumers believe that it is a better time to buy goods now to avoid further price increases in the future. At the same time, American households have improved their assessments of their financial situation and the overall economic outlook. The index for durable goods purchases has risen to its highest level since October last year, reflecting a stronger willingness of consumers to make purchases. However, the cost of living remains a major pressure for American families. Although data released this week showed the largest monthly drop in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) since the pandemic, overall inflation levels are still significantly higher than the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. Sub-category data showed that the current conditions index, reflecting the current economic situation, rose to 54.9, reaching a four-month high, while the expectations index for future economic prospects rose to 54, the highest level since February.