Sealand: Loan slowing down and improving quality may become the new norm, optimizing reverse repurchase operation mechanism.

Sealand released a research report stating that in June, social financing increased by 7.4% year-on-year, with a smaller increase in new social financing, active direct financing, and a significant slowdown in the increase of government bonds. The credit side relies on bill financing to support, while the demand for medium and long-term credit for enterprises and residents continues to weaken, and the slowdown and improvement of loans may become a new normal. The central bank stated that policy tightening or loosening should not be judged solely based on single open market operations, with short-term interest rates as the core observation index. The overnight reverse repurchase operation mechanism will be optimized to stabilize and maintain market liquidity. The bank maintains a "recommended" rating for the banking industry. Key points from Sealand: - In June, there was a smaller increase in new social financing, with active direct financing. - In June 2026, social financing increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 861.5 billion yuan. Renminbi loans increased by 1.7645 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 595.5 billion yuan; government bonds increased by 768.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 582.1 billion yuan, with a relatively moderate pace of government bond issuance in the first half of the year. The net financing amount of corporate bonds + stocks increased year-on-year by 203.7 billion yuan, possibly due to the preference of innovative companies to choose equity, bonds, and other direct financing methods under the current economic structure. - The slowdown and improvement of loans may become a new normal. - In June 2026, various loans increased by 1.61 trillion yuan, consistent with the characteristics of the peak season for credit release at the end of the quarter. However, the demand is still relatively weak, with a year-on-year increase of 630 billion yuan. Medium and long-term loans for enterprises increased by 560 billion yuan year-on-year, a decrease of 450 billion yuan. The willingness of real enterprises to invest in the medium and long term is still weak; bill financing increased by 114.4 billion yuan year-on-year, an increase of 525.3 billion yuan, which is a core impulse item for credit that month. Household credit is still in a contraction range, with short-term household loans increasing by 106.1 billion yuan year-on-year, a decrease of 156 billion yuan, and medium and long-term household loans increasing by 158.4 billion yuan year-on-year, a decrease of 176.9 billion yuan. - Liquidity control anchors short-term interest rates, optimizing the reverse repurchase operation mechanism. - In terms of monetary policy, the central bank pointed out that open market operations are aimed at serving liquidity regulation, and the scale of a single operation cannot determine the policy orientation. The core of regulation is to maintain reasonable and ample liquidity and stabilize the operation of short-term interest rates. In the future, the central bank will continue to improve the monetary policy operation framework, gradually increase the frequency of overnight reverse repurchase operations in response to the actual needs of primary dealers, and simultaneously do market communication to guide overnight interest rates to operate stably near the policy interest rate. Risk factors: - Significant changes in financial regulatory policies - Debt reduction efforts and progress are lower than expected - Concentrated risk exposure in the real estate sector - Occurrence of unforeseen events during the economic recovery process - Abnormal fluctuations in the bond market - Focus on company profit forecasts falling short of expectations.