Sealand: Focus on the progress of reusable rocket technology and investment opportunities in the industry chain, maintain "recommended" industry rating.
Commercial space industry-level changes have emerged, and it is advisable to keep a close watch.
Sealand released a research report stating that the current commercial space race is experiencing a triple resonance of demand rigidity release, breakthrough in recyclable technology cost reduction, and accelerated capacity construction. The report suggests paying attention to the progress of rocket recyclable technology and investment opportunities in the rocket industry chain such as rocket structure, engine, and control system. The industry may accelerate towards a golden development period and maintains a "recommended" rating.
Sealand's main points are as follows:
The dense launch of low-orbit satellites, breakthrough in rocket recyclable technology, and the emergence of space computing constellations may trigger a new round of commercial aerospace industry revolution.
Since 2025, China's satellite launches have significantly accelerated (according to CCTV, the number of launches in 2025 reached 92, a record high), there have been many advancements in the field of recyclable rocket technology (the Zhuque-3, Long March 12A, Long March 10 and other launch vehicles have undergone recyclable technology testing), and the future space launch costs may significantly decrease. At the same time, the dense networking of low-orbit satellite Internet and constellations, the industry's development trend is positive. In addition, with ground computing approaching resource boundaries, the emergence of space computing as a new blue ocean may become a new direction for future great power strategic games, and will also bring significant new momentum to the commercial aerospace industry. Currently, overseas verification of technologies such as on-orbit edge computing, satellite AI inference, and the deployment of some commercial computing constellations are accelerating. Several domestic research institutions and enterprises have also initiated research and experiments in satellite computing, on-board inference, inter-satellite laser communication, and other directions. Multiple rounds of industrial level changes in commercial aerospace have appeared, and it is recommended to pay close attention.
China's launch rockets have entered a phase of intensive recyclable testing, and the balance between rocket capacity and cost is currently a key focus.
The large-scale network launch of low-orbit constellations requires rocket capacity with high cost-effectiveness, which is also a major bottleneck for the current development of the commercial aerospace industry. Recyclable rockets can achieve significant cost savings through the repeated reuse of key components such as first-stage boosters and fairings (such as the cost of reusable Falcon 9 is less than 1/3 of a new rocket). The value distribution of the rocket industry chain is relatively concentrated, with power systems, structures, and control systems being the core high-value links. With the simultaneous development and test flights of multiple types of rockets by state-owned enterprises and private companies, the future cost of rocket capacity is expected to significantly decrease.
Recommendations for attention:
1) Rocket Side: Guanglian Aviation Industry, Shaanxi Aerospace Power Hi-tech, Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology, Jiangxi Guoke Defence Group, Guizhou Aviation Technical Development, Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology, Avic Heavy Machinery, Shaanxi Sirui Advanced Materials, Xi'an Bright Laser Technologies, Western Metal Materials, Fushun Special Steel, Beijing Navigation Control Technology, NanJing GOVA Technology, Guizhou Space Appliance, Beijing Relpow Technology, LandSpace (unlisted), CASIC Space (unlisted), Tianbing Technology (unlisted), Interstellar Glory (unlisted), Star River Power (unlisted), Dongfang Space (unlisted), etc; 2) Satellite Side: Aerospace Electronics, Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies, Xinsci Telecom, Jushri Technologies, Inc, Hunan Aerospace Huanyu Communication Technology, Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co., Ltd., China Spacesat, CETC Lantian Technology, Guobo Electronics, Zhejiang Chengchang Technology, Zhenlei Technology, Chengdu M&S Electronics Technology, Guangzhou Haige Communications Group Incorporated, Shaanxi Huada Science Technology, Guizhou Space Appliance, Jonhon Optronic Technology, Changshu Tianyin Electromechanical, Geovis Technology Co., Ltd, China Satellite Communications, GEOVIS INSIGHTER, Avic Aviation High-Technology, Weihai Guangwei Composites, Sinofibers Technology, Raytron Technology, Guangdong Hongda Holdings Group, Beijing Aerospace Shenzhou Intelligent Equipment Technology, etc; 3) Others: Xi'an Xice Testing Technology, Sichor, Suzhou Sushi Testing Group, Chengdu Jiachi Electronic Technology, Hefei Jianghang Aircraft Equipment, etc.
Risk Alerts: 1) Delay in commercial process progress; 2) Industry policy changes; 3) Unforeseen progress in rocket recyclable technology verification; 4) Supply chain management risks; 5) Product price reduction risks etc.
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