Raymond James reiterated an $800 price target: SpaceX's 13th test flight is an "execution check" of the investment logic.

SpaceX (SPCX.US) announced that it will conduct the 13th integrated flight test of the Starship system on July 16th at the earliest. This mission comes just around seven weeks after the 12th test flight on May 22nd, marking a significant improvement in launch cadence for the space exploration company. The turnaround time has been shortened from 221 days between the 11th and 12th flights, to approximately 55 days between the 12th and 13th flights. The launch window for this mission will be 90 minutes and is set to open on Thursday afternoon at 5:45 PM Central Time (6:45 AM on July 17th in Beijing). Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale described this mission as an "execution test" for the world's largest rocket system, the Starship. He emphasized that the success of the Starship in entering regular operations remains crucial for SpaceX's long-term investment prospects. Gesuale believes that SpaceX is accelerating its testing program in order to increase launch frequency and reduce mission intervals. If the 13th flight launches as planned, it would mean a turnaround time approximately four times faster - indicating that the Starship is moving from isolated research milestones towards a more repeatable operational rhythm. This rhythm shift is a core basis for Raymond James' target price of $800. From "Research Milestones" to "Repeatable Operational Rhythm" Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale described this mission as an "execution test" for the world's largest rocket system, the Starship. He emphasized that the success of the Starship in entering regular operations remains crucial for SpaceX's long-term investment prospects. The 12th test flight was the first integrated flight test of the new V3 version of the Starship, but it encountered multiple anomalies during the process. The main issue was that the "Super Heavy" booster failed to complete the planned return burn after stage separation, eventually crash landing in the Gulf of Mexico. SpaceX's investigation attributed the problem to a timing issue with the ship's side engines firing, causing the booster to flip and deviate about 90 degrees, leading to five Raptor engines not igniting. Additionally, a Raptor engine on the booster failed during ascent, and another engine on the ship's side malfunctioned. In preparation for the 13th test flight, SpaceX has completed static fire tests on 33 Raptor engines and made modifications to the engine ignition sequence to make it more robust to timing changes. The booster has also undergone hardware modifications to improve re-ignition reliability. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced the end of the accident investigation on July 13th, accepting SpaceX's investigation findings and corrective measures. The accident report identified two main root causes - thermal effects on propulsion system components during ascent and incorrect engine alarm system settings. SpaceX has identified four corrective measures, including hardware and software configuration updates. First Deployment of 20 Starlink V3 Satellites: From "Simulation" to "Combat" The 13th test flight will carry 20 fully functional Starlink V3 satellites for the first time and attempt deployment. Previous launches only carried mass simulators of V3 satellites. V3 satellites are equipped with advanced laser links for inter-satellite communication, deployable CECEP Solar Energy battery arrays, and onboard cameras. Six of the satellites are equipped with cameras that will capture images of the Starship heat shield during approximately an hour-long flight. The satellites will deploy their CECEP Solar Energy battery panels and antennas after deployment, attempting to connect to a ground station in South Africa and other Starlink satellites. As the satellites will be in a similar suborbital trajectory as the Starship, they will stay in space for about 20 minutes before deorbiting and reentering the atmosphere. This deployment marks a crucial transition for the Starship from "test payloads" to "actual commercial missions." SpaceX had already deployed around 1,600 Starlink satellites by the first half of 2026, surpassing the 1,489 deployed by the first half of 2025. The upgrades in V3 satellites can be considered as a "generational leap." The communication capacity of a single satellite is 1Tbps, more than 10 times that of V2. A fully loaded Starship carrying 60 V3 satellites can add 60Tbps of total bandwidth capacity to the Starlink network, approximately 40 times the capacity of a Falcon 9 carrying V2 Mini satellites. The uplink rate has increased to 160Gbps, 24 times that of V2. With satellite-to-satellite laser communication links, network latency is expected to decrease from the current 40-50 milliseconds to below 20 milliseconds. The physical size of V3 satellites has also significantly increased: the mass of a single satellite exceeds 2 tons, more than three times that of V2 Mini; the wingspan of the unfolded CECEP Solar Energy battery panel is about 60 meters, far exceeding the limits of Falcon 9 fairing accommodation. This test flight will carry 20 satellites for early technical validation, with a maximum capacity of 60 satellites when fully loaded. Six of the satellites are specially modified with camera systems to capture images of the Starship's heat shield and transmit them in real-time. Gesuale stated that the continuous progress of Starlink deployment, along with an accelerated launch cadence, enhances SpaceX's competitive advantage on its commercial model. FAA Clearance and Investor Focus Following FAA clearance, SpaceX received a launch permit. This mission will continue to validate key technologies such as the V3 version of the Starship and reusability. The main objectives include verifying reliable stage separation, engine performance under various conditions, controlled re-entry, single Raptor engine re-ignition in space, and controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean. Raymond James reiterated its "strong buy" rating on SpaceX and a target price of $800. Gesuale emphasized that the success criteria lie in addressing the key anomalies of the 12th flight - the booster's guidance issue, engine failures on the ship's side, and the sequence of space engine re-ignition. Bernstein SocGen Group also reiterated its "outperform the market" rating, maintaining a target price of $239. Wall Street's valuation judgment on SpaceX still shows significant differences. Currently, at least 13 analysts cover the company, with only one holding a neutral position. Investors are now required to price SpaceX as a publicly traded company rather than a private spectacle. The divergence between bulls and bears lies in the bears' belief that SpaceX is still a demonstration company with ambitious goals but lacking sustained profitability, while the bulls see the Starship no longer as an isolated spectacle but moving towards an operational rhythm similar to commercial aviation. This is the core divergence that investors need to focus on. If the Starship is becoming reusable, the public market can start to view SpaceX more as infrastructure rather than a rocket project; if not, it will be harder to justify the high valuation narrative. Outlook: "Key Leap" to Orbit and Artemis If the 13th test flight is successful, SpaceX may be able to attempt the Starship's first orbital launch in the next flight. The company is pushing forward with the Starship's service for deploying Starlink V3 satellites and as a moon lander for NASA's Artemis lunar landing program. If the 13th flight is successful, SpaceX may be able to conduct the Starship's first orbital launch in the next flight. SpaceX is working diligently to advance the service of the Starship for deploying Starlink V3 satellites and as a moon lander for NASA's Artemis lunar landing program. Musk has also stated that this test flight will accumulate key data for the "chopstick robotic arm ocean recovery rocket" in the 14th test flight. This mission is also the first Starship test flight after SpaceX's IPO. Investors are evaluating the company's performance to assess whether its substantial valuation is reasonable, and the performance of the Starship in the test flights is a key factor in market judgment. The compression of the launch cadence from 221 days to 55 days, if the Starship can truly enter a repeatable, high-frequency operational state, will lead to a reassessment of SpaceX's commercial model and valuation logic. Thursday's test flight will be the most critical step in this process.