OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for 2026 for the third time and raised the outlook for 2027.

The OPEC monthly report released on Monday showed that the organization has revised down its global oil demand growth forecast to 780,000 barrels per day in 2026, marking its third consecutive downward revision. Compared to other forecasting agencies such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), the oil-producing group still believes that consumption has been relatively unaffected since the outbreak of the Iran war. OPEC stated that the global economy may perform better for the remainder of this year and has raised its oil demand growth forecast for 2027. The war effectively closed one of the world's most important oil passages, the Strait of Hormuz, for months, restricting the production of millions of barrels from the Middle East. With Iran reaching a midterm peace agreement with the United States, production is starting to recover, although a new round of military strikes has raised concerns about shipments once again. In its report released on its website, OPEC stated, "The momentum of global economic growth in the first half of 2026 has generally remained resilient." "If energy markets and trade flows further stabilize, the potential easing of geopolitical tensions may provide some upside momentum for global growth in the second half of 2026." The current forecast has lowered this year's expected oil demand growth from the previous 970,000 barrels per day. For 2027, OPEC expects oil demand to increase by 1.94 million barrels per day, an increase of 210,000 barrels per day from previous forecasts. OPEC+, composed of oil-producing countries and allied nations such as Russia, had previously agreed to resume production increases from April, but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz prevented them from raising production to agreed-upon quota levels. The report cited secondary data sources used by OPEC to monitor production, stating that in June, OPEC+ produced an average of 36.28 million barrels of crude oil per day, an increase of about 3 million barrels per day from May as Gulf members resumed production interrupted by the Iran war. The data from May included the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which withdrew from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1.