SpaceX stock price has dropped nearly 30% from its peak, seasoned investor commented: a flood of unlocks is imminent, only worth $30 per share.

Space exploration technology company SpaceX (SPCX.US) stock price has fallen by about 28% from its post-IPO closing peak of over $200, with veteran investor George Nobil once again sounding the bearish alarm and warning that the stock will face pressure from insider selling in the coming months. Nobil posted a lengthy analysis on the X platform last Saturday, stating, "The largest IPO in history is shaping up to be the largest 'exit liquidity' operation in history." He bluntly stated, "The structure of this IPO is designed to cut off the funds of retail investors from the company's equity." Nobil, who was involved in the founding of Fidelity Overseas Fund, pointed out that SpaceX's valuation is severely disconnected from its fundamentals. He calculated that when the company went public at $135 per share, the price-to-sales ratio was over 90, and after listing, it even approached a ratio of nearly 140 times sales. He also believed that the initial rise of the stock after the IPO was not driven by fundamentals, but rather by what he called "forced shorting." Nobil stated that after the IPO, SpaceX's float accounted for less than 5% of the total shares, and the company was quickly included in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ, IQQ) and Russell indexes (IWB, IWL), forcing passive funds and ETFs to buy billions of dollars' worth of shares amidst a tight public float. "The supply is negligible, but the buying is mandatory - this is a forced shorting created by humans," Nobil wrote. Nobil predicted that this situation is about to reverse. He pointed out that the disclosed lock-up arrangements show that insider shares will be gradually unlocked - starting after the release of the second quarter financial report until the end of the year, with the final batch scheduled to be unlocked in June 2027. According to Nobil's calculations, as employees and early investors gain selling rights, these unlocked batches may significantly expand the float. He believes that the main catalyst for the stock price in the coming months will not be the company's fundamentals, but the disclosed unlocking schedule. Nobil stated that Starlink is SpaceX's only consistently profitable business, but this alone is not enough to support the company's current market value. He estimated a fair value for SpaceX of around $30 per share and called the company "the most serious large-cap stock valuation bubble I have ever seen." On Friday, SpaceX's stock closed at around $145, only about $10 above the $135 IPO price.