"Musk premium" fluctuates: SpaceX's IPO surged in the first month and then fell back, while Tesla, Inc. launched a defensive counterattack.

The halo of the largest IPO in global history has not faded yet, but the stock price of SpaceX (SPCX.US) has fallen from the clouds to the ground. This giant controlled by Elon Musk, combining aerospace, telecommunications, AI, and social media, has experienced a sharp drop of over 35% from the closing high of $225.64 on June 16th, just one month after its IPO. On July 9th, the stock price hit a historical low of $145.20. As of the close on July 9th, SpaceX was at $149.29, falling below the opening price of $150 on the first day of trading for two consecutive days. In a subtle contrast, the stock price of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) has actually risen slightly since SpaceX went public - opening at $399.49 on June 12th and currently trading around $402. The market is witnessing a cruel tug-of-war between the "faith premium" for Musk. From $225 to $145: The end of the "honeymoon" for the largest IPO in history SpaceX's IPO set multiple historical records. On June 11th, the company issued 5.556 billion shares at $135 per share, raising $750 billion; if the underwriters exercise the greenshoe option, the fundraising scale could reach up to $860 billion. It opened on its first day of trading at $150 on June 12th, with the stock price soaring and reaching a closing high of $225.64 on June 16th, with a market value approaching $3 trillion. However, after the feast comes the cruel return to value. On July 7th, on the first day of trading when it was included in the Nasdaq 100 index - a record-setting 15 days from IPO to inclusion in the index - SpaceX's stock price plummeted, closing down 6.83% at $149.47, falling below the $150 opening price. Bloomberg industry research analysts estimated that the inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 and Russell index series should have generated at least $5.4 billion in buying demand from index-tracking funds. However, Mike Kao, Chief Strategist of the option analysis platform OpenInterest.PRO, pointed out that SpaceX's weight in the Nasdaq 100 is only 1.3%, significantly weakening the passive buying pressure. JJ Kinahan, Senior Vice President of Cboe Global Markets Inc., warned on the eve of inclusion: "We know that volatility is high... Can you accept the stock price fluctuating by $20 within 11 days? The price can rise by $20, but it can also fall by $20." The gap between faith and fundamentals: A net loss of $4.276 billion in the first quarter, with a market-to-sales ratio exceeding 100 times Behind the sharp drop in SpaceX's stock price is the market's general concern about the overvaluation of AI concept stocks. According to SpaceX's prospectus, the company is still in a loss-making state. In the first quarter of 2026, SpaceX's revenue was $4.694 billion, with a net loss of an astonishing $4.276 billion, nearly approaching the full-year loss of the previous year. FactSet surveys show that the median forecast for SpaceX's earnings per share for 2026 by 23 analysts is - $0.42. Among the company's three main business segments, only the Connectivity segment, centered on the Starlink satellite internet, is able to "generate blood," while the Space and AI segments continue to "burn money." The Grok model has not gained a competitive advantage in the market. SpaceX expects revenue of around $36 billion in 2026 and has not yet achieved profitability, with a market-to-sales ratio of 41 times based on future 12-month revenue. A more conservative estimate shows that with a market value of $2 trillion and annual revenue of approximately $190 billion, the market-to-sales ratio exceeds 100 times. Due to continuous losses, SpaceX does not meet the profitability threshold for inclusion in the S&P 500 index, meaning that the benchmark index will not include it for at least a year. Wall Street's "faith vote": Average target price of $236, with a high of up to $800 Despite the sharp drop in stock price and concerns about fundamentals, major investment banks have almost unanimously given buy ratings after the end of the quiet period. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that the average target price of analysts is as high as $236.45, representing a premium of approximately 58% over the current closing price. Morgan Stanley is the most aggressive, with an "overweight" rating and a target price of $300, setting a pessimistic scenario of $75 and an optimistic scenario of $600. The bank expects SpaceX's revenue to reach $319 billion in 2030 and surpass $3.3 trillion in 2040, but predicts that the company will not achieve positive free cash flow until 2035. In its initial coverage report, Raymond James gave a "strong buy" rating with a target price of $800. Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft gave a "buy" rating with a target price of $255; JPMorgan gave an "overweight" rating with a target price of $225; Bernstein gave an "outperform" rating with a target price of $239; RBC gave an "outperform" rating with a target price of $225; and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. gave a "buy" rating with a target price of $205. There are also institutions with a skeptical outlook. MoffettNathanson gave an initial "neutral" rating, while CFRA advised to "sell" the stock. Merger speculation: The "Musk premium" defense battle for Tesla, Inc. The performance of SpaceX after going public has had a subtle and far-reaching impact on Tesla, Inc. Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A, described Tesla, Inc. as a "faith-based" stock - Musk has earned huge wealth for many loyal followers. However, this faith is now facing a double test. On the one hand, if SpaceX performs well, it will attract the attention and capital of overlapping investors in both companies; on the other hand, if SpaceX performs poorly, it will hinder the future value of a merger. Ivan Feinseth, Chief Investment Officer at Tigress Financial Partners, pointed out that SpaceX's sensational IPO has shifted the focus of retail investors and momentum funds from Tesla, Inc., but the equally high valuation of SpaceX also supports the perceived "safety net" of Tesla, Inc. Merger speculation is becoming a focus of market attention. Rajat Gupta, an analyst at JPMorgan, stated that a merger between Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX "makes sense on paper," and the two companies' shared AI ambitions could be a "potential strategic adhesive." However, Gupta warned that potential obstacles include regulatory approvals in multiple jurisdictions, governance and voting rights asymmetry, and the perception that the merger would be driven by SpaceX. JPMorgan expects that if the deal goes through, the most likely structure would be SpaceX acquiring Tesla, Inc. in an all-stock deal. Tom Narayan, an analyst at Royal Bank of Canada, believes that the likelihood of a merger is increasing, with SpaceX hoping to merge with Tesla, Inc. mainly for "operational cooperation." He raised the target price for Tesla, Inc. from $475 to $500, implying a 22% increase. However, analysts at BNP Paribas in France expressed skepticism, pointing out that the significant cash burn and major regulatory risks of both companies make a merger complex, maintaining a "underperforming the market" rating for Tesla, Inc. with a target price of $280. Tesla, Inc. will release its second quarter earnings report on July 22nd. Despite delivering 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter, a record for the second quarter with a 25% year-over-year increase, the stock price fell sharply by 7.49% on the day the delivery data was announced. Strong sales volume failed to boost the stock price, reflecting the capital market's re-examination of Tesla, Inc.'s core narrative: when growth is primarily driven by price reductions and promotions, Tesla, Inc.'s story is moving from "technological disruption" to the logic of "traditional automotive". Outlook: The crossroads of faith SpaceX's performance in the month since its IPO has revealed a profound transformation in the pricing logic of the "Musk concept" in the capital market. During the IPO frenzy, investors were willing to pay a sky-high premium for Musk's vision; but as the hype fades, fundamentals - expanding losses, uncertain WINOX, and a market-to-sales ratio of up to a hundred times - are starting to reassert influence on pricing. Mark Haak, Chief Market Strategist at Nationwide, said that concerns about the overvaluation of AI concept stocks may persist until the earnings are released. SpaceX needs to fully achieve the complete reusability of Starship in the coming years, significantly enhance the competitiveness of Grok, and successfully develop cost-effective space-based CECEP Solar Energy data centers. Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that SpaceX will need to raise $84 billion annually from 2027 to 2034 to support infrastructure development. Tesla, Inc. faces similar tests. If Robotaxi and Siasun Robot&Automation technologies fail to develop into meaningful businesses as planned, the foundation of its $1.5 trillion market value will be challenged. An analyst at Karobaar Capital stated, "Even if Tesla, Inc. can operate successfully, it doesn't even need SpaceX." The earnings season test: Can the autonomous driving narrative land on July 22nd? On July 22nd, Tesla, Inc. will release its full second-quarter earnings report. This will be a critical moment to test the viability of the "Musk premium". Investors' focus is no longer on vehicle delivery numbers but on: the expansion plans and timelines for Robotaxi, the subscription growth of FSD, the production progress of Cybercab and Semi, and the prospects for the return on AI capital expenditures. Dmitry Shlyapnikov, an analyst at Horizon Investments, summarized: "The earnings report on July 22nd will be a short-term test to see if management can translate the theory of autonomous taxi and warehouse business into actual performance." SpaceX's earnings report, on the other hand, is more distant - as a company still incurring huge losses, the market's patience with it is based on the distant vision of "future revenue of $3.4 trillion". But if Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous driving narrative cannot meet market expectations on July 22nd, the valuation logic of the entire "Musk Empire" will face a reassessment. Before the IPO, many on Wall Street were concerned that SpaceX's listing would pose a "survival threat" to Tesla, Inc. - draining funds, competing for attention, diluting the "Musk premium". However, a month later, the market's response shows that merger expectations are transforming this potential "zero-sum game" into a kind of "symbiotic narrative": SpaceX's retreat has not dragged down Tesla, Inc., and instead, speculation that the two companies will eventually merge is providing new support for Tesla, Inc.'s stock price.