Morgan Stanley is bullish about Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) with a target price of $415: Robotaxi plan continues to expand, Model YL launched in the U.S. opens up new growth opportunities.

In a recent research report released by Morgan Stanley, they commented on two major events of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US): the launch of Robotaxi (self-driving ride-hailing) service in Miami and the release of the long wheelbase three-row, six-seat version of Model Y (known as Model YL) in the United States. At the same time, the firm maintained a "hold" rating on Tesla, Inc. with a target price of $415. This target price represents an approximate 3% upside from Tesla, Inc.'s closing price on Tuesday. On July 3, Tesla, Inc. officially launched Robotaxi service in Miami (including unmanned vehicles). In the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year performance demonstration materials, Miami, along with Phoenix, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas, were listed as "in preparation" cities. Morgan Stanley expects Tesla, Inc. to launch Robotaxi service in all these major metropolitan areas before the end of this year. Additionally, there have been sightings of test Robotaxi vehicles in New Orleans recently (not yet confirmed by Tesla, Inc.), a city that was not included in the list of preparation cities in the previous quarter's financial report demonstration materials. Morgan Stanley believes that the market will welcome the aforementioned news, as the market had previously thought the pace of Robotaxi deployment was slowing down. They pointed out that the number of active Robotaxi fleet vehicles has declined since the end of April based on Robotaxi Tracker data (although these data are not confirmed by Tesla, Inc.). In addition, Morgan Stanley noted that Tesla, Inc. is increasing the recruitment of AI safety operators in the north of Austin based on their Alphawise data, indicating preparations for expanding Robotaxi operations. Meanwhile, the use of FSD (Full Self-Driving) continues to accelerate, with accumulated mileage reaching 10 billion miles as of early May. Morgan Stanley has also established a set of Austin Robotaxi fleet monitoring indicators based on data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and standardized processing. The data shows a significant improvement in average mileage per accident since the launch of Robotaxi. Given the ongoing controversy in the market regarding Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous driving technology, investors are currently closely monitoring the speed of monthly safety data improvement. Morgan Stanley believes that whether Tesla, Inc. can continuously expand the scale of the Robotaxi fleet while improving accident rates (i.e. continuously increasing average mileage between accidents) will be the most critical indicator for investors to judge the success of its Robotaxi business. The firm expects Tesla, Inc.'s Robotaxi fleet (including manned and unmanned vehicles) to reach 1,500 vehicles by the end of this year and expand to 30,000 vehicles before 2030. Although the absolute number of Robotaxi vehicles this year still contributes limited profitability, changes in the speed of Robotaxi deployment will provide clearer judgment criteria for investors who continue to question whether Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous driving technology can achieve large-scale commercialization. Apart from the progress of Robotaxi service deployment, Tesla, Inc. also announced last week that they will launch a larger size Model Y (Model YL) in the United States, with deliveries expected to begin in October and a starting price of $61,990, including one year of FSD service, one year of Supercharging service, one year of premium connectivity service, and free choice of all body colors. The launch of Model YL in the U.S. market follows the successful launch of this model in the Chinese market. This six-seat long-wheelbase SUV was first released in China last year, priced about $4,000 higher than the standard Model Y. In comparison, the U.S. Model YL is about $12,000 more expensive than the Model Y Premium AWD version and about $22,000 more expensive than the Model Y rear-wheel-drive version. Morgan Stanley stated that the strong initial demand for Model YL after its launch in China proves that consumers have high demand for a more spacious three-row Tesla, Inc. model. This is likely to be an important reason for Tesla, Inc. to push this model to the global market. U.S. customers are expected to start receiving deliveries in October, so this model will contribute more significantly to sales in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 2027. In the long term, by targeting large families, Model YL has expanded Tesla, Inc.'s serviceable market, partially filling the market gap left by the discontinued Model X and helping to improve the product portfolio and average selling price (ASP), as well as maintaining demand for Model Y in major markets. Morgan Stanley has set a target price of $415 for Tesla, Inc., composed of five parts: 1) core automotive business: $45 per share. 2) Network services: $144 per share. 3) Robotaxi travel business: $125 per share. 4) Energy business: $40 per share. 5) Humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation: $60 per share.