"Prime Minister-elect" Burnham on the eve of taking office, UK election polls reversed: Labour Party expected to win 217 seats, leading the pack, hung parliament may reappear.

As Andy Burnham is set to replace Keir Starmer as the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, the latest opinion polls show that the ruling Labour Party will win the most seats in the upcoming election. According to a so-called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification survey (MRP) commissioned by the communication consultancy firm PLMR to Electoral Calculus, if a general election were to be held in the UK at present, the Labour Party would win 217 seats out of 650 in the House of Commons. While not reaching the threshold for an absolute majority, the Labour Party's seats would still lead the Conservative Party (151 seats) and the UK Reform Party led by Nigel Farage (127 seats). This is a stark contrast to the situation in April when the election forecasting agency Electoral Calculus ranked the Labour Party's seats third, far behind the Reform Party and the Conservative Party. Labour leads in the latest election forecast It is reported that the Prime Minister of the UK, Keir Starmer, announced his resignation in June, and Andy Burnham, as the only eligible candidate within the Labour Party, is almost certain to take over as the leader of the Labour Party and become the Prime Minister, referred to by the media as the "Prime Minister-designate." The next general election is scheduled to be held by August 2029 at the latest. Public records show that the "King of the North" Burnham served as the Mayor of Greater Manchester from 2017 to 2026, promoting the nationalization of the public transport system and establishing the "Bee Network," which increased the region's economic growth rate to double the national average. With deep roots in the north of England, he is seen as a key figure in potentially winning back support for the Labour Party among blue-collar voters in the north. "Although the possibility of another hung parliament remains the most likely based on these data, the final outcome of the next general election still remains uncertain," said Kevin Craig, founder of the leading UK public affairs and communication consultancy firm PLMR, in a statement. "Andy Burnham has clearly injected new energy into the Labour Party, but the current challenge is to translate this optimism into tangible progress." The so-called hung parliament refers to a parliament in a parliamentary democracy where no party or party alliance has an absolute majority of seats in the lower house of parliament (usually requiring more than half). The poll also highlights the turbulence in the right-wing political scene in the UK. Due to Farage's financial situation being under scrutiny, the support for the Reform Party has declined in the polls. Reform Party leader Farage announced his resignation from parliament on Tuesday, accusing the British "establishment" of trying to defeat him through "dirty tricks." He vowed to participate in the subsequent by-elections, allowing voters to "judge" his actions. Starmer resigned after a disastrous performance in the local elections in May, prompting Burnham to run and win a seat in the House of Commons. The nomination for the Labour Party leader will officially begin on Thursday and end a week later. If there are no other challengers, Burnham is expected to take office as Prime Minister on July 20th. The poll was conducted from June 23rd to 30th, with a sample size of over 5500 people. The MRP technique aims to infer the results of individual electoral districts by using a larger sample size and utilizing demographic characteristics of voters, providing more detailed election predictions than traditional polls. The survey results by Electoral Calculus assume a certain level of "strategic voting," where voters may abandon their supported party to prevent a third candidate from taking office. The results show that both the Labour Party and the Conservative Party benefit from this strategy, increasing their seats from 195 and 124 to 217 and 151, respectively. The Reform Party becomes the loser, with its seats decreasing from 166 to 127. The latest opinion polls show that the Liberal Democrats will win 72 seats, ranking fourth; the Green Party wins 30 seats; and the Scottish National Party wins 28 seats. In terms of percentages, the Labour Party and the Reform Party are tied at 22% of the votes; the Conservatives receive 20% of the votes. The situation has significantly changed compared to the MRP survey conducted by Electoral Calculus in January. At that time, the poll showed that the Labour Party only won 41 seats, ranking sixth, the Reform Party won an absolute majority with 335 seats, the Conservatives won 92 seats, and the Liberal Democrats won 60 seats.