Guosheng: AI optical interconnection is booming, paying attention to ceramic substrates and tube shells.

Guosheng released a research report stating that ceramic substrates have advantages in heat dissipation, insulation performance, and reliability, and have gradually become a key functional material in the AI industry chain. Aluminum oxide is cheap and the process is mature, with applications covering almost all semiconductor manufacturing equipment, making it a key component of traditional semiconductor production equipment. In the high-end field, aluminum nitride is the most promising high thermal conductivity ceramic material, and has become an indispensable strategic basic material in the AI computing field. As AI construction accelerates, ceramic substrates are in a key window period for domestic substitution, and it is recommended to pay attention to companies with core technology and a complete industrial layout. Guosheng's main points are as follows: Demand side: The power consumption of AI hardware continues to rise, and the upgrade of underlying materials brings rigid demand for ceramic substrates. AI servers and GPU clusters: Traditional PCB performance has reached its limit, and ceramic hybrid solutions have become the optimal breakthrough path. According to Nvidia's product roadmap, the next generation Rubin GPU power consumption can reach 2850W, with the Rubin Ultra version further breaking through 3000W, with overall power consumption continuing to rise. The current technical route is to use a hybrid solution of PCB and ceramic substrate in HDI (high-density interconnect) boards to ensure the integrity of high-frequency signal transmission. Currently, in AI server boards, the proportion of ceramic substrates replacing traditional PCBs has reached nearly 30%, and will continue to expand as chip power consumption increases. High-speed optical modules: Aluminum nitride ceramic substrates & covers, the preferred solution for high-speed optical modules Aluminum nitride has become the preferred solution for high-speed optical modules. The 800G/1.6T high-speed optical modules use aluminum nitride ceramic substrates, which can keep the chip junction temperature below 60C, increasing heat dissipation efficiency by more than 5 times compared to traditional substrates. The 800G optical module uses aluminum nitride ceramic substrates to achieve high-precision wiring of differential signals, reducing signal transmission loss by 40% compared to FR-4 substrates, meeting the long-distance transmission requirements of data centers. According to Cai Lin She, the total market size of ceramic components in the optical module field is approximately 13.5 billion yuan in 2026 (of which substrates are about 9.9 billion yuan and covers are about 3.2 billion yuan). By 2027, driven by the increase in volume and price brought about by the mass production of 1.6T/3.2T products, the overall market size is expected to surge to 20-22 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of over 60%. CPO packaging: Integration causes local high heat, ceramic substrates are one of the ideal solutions CPO encapsulates the optical engine directly next to the switching chip, with the two high-power devices close together, causing a sudden increase in local heat, which places extremely high demands on the accuracy, flatness, and thermal expansion coefficient matching of the substrate. Ceramic substrates have excellent thermal expansion matching, can disperse stress concentration areas, and provide structural support for high-power scenarios. Supply side: Rare earth supply disruption leads to production reduction in Japan, domestic substitution welcomes a key window period The global high-end ceramic substrate market presents a pattern of "Japan leading, Europe and America following, China catching up". In the high-end ceramic substrate material field, Japanese companies dominate; in the high-end aluminum nitride powder field, over 70% of global production capacity is monopolized by Japan's Denka. The core preparation material for aluminum nitride, yttrium oxide, has been restricted for export to Japan, industry inventory is at a low, and the high-end ceramic substrate substitution welcomes a key window period for domestic substitution. Currently, the domestication rate of high-end aluminum nitride powder is only 4%, leaving a large room for improvement in domestic substitution. Risk warning: Technological development falls short of expectations, downstream demand falls short of expectations, intensified industry competition.