Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures rise together, Wall Street diminishes worries about "excess computing power", and the US June nonfarm payroll will debut tonight.

Pre-market Market Trends 1. In pre-market trading on July 2nd (Thursday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose. At the time of writing, Dow Jones futures rose by 0.18%, S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.15%, and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.25%. 2. At the time of writing, the Germany DAX index rose by 1.05%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.67%, the France CAC 40 index rose by 1.08%, and the Europe Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.95%. 3. At the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell by 2.04% to $67.18 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 1.83% to $70.26 per barrel. Market News The US June non-farm payroll report will be released tonight. The market generally expects an addition of 110,000 jobs in June, the smallest monthly increase in four months after three consecutive months of better-than-expected growth. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3% for the fourth consecutive month. Average hourly earnings are expected to grow by 0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from May, while the year-on-year wage growth rate is expected to rise slightly from 3.4% to 3.5%. Despite the expected slowdown in job growth, the June employment report may still indicate resilience in the labor market. "New Fed Communication Agency": Powell says inflation risks are diminishing but refuses to reveal whether there will be a rate hike in July. Federal Reserve Chair Powell signaled an improvement in the inflation situation during the European Central Bank forum in Portugal but remained deliberately silent on whether there would be a rate hike in the July meeting, making it more difficult for the market to judge the Fed's next move. The Wall Street Journal's "New Fed Communication Agency" wrote that Powell stated in Sintra, Portugal, that inflation expectations had decreased in the past four weeks, and inflation risks had receded, which he saw as early evidence that the market had fully understood his hawkish stance. He explicitly warned that anyone who expected the Fed to tolerate sustained inflation above the 2% target "would be disappointed." However, the "New Fed Communication Agency" believes that Powell remains taciturn tactically. Faced with questions about whether there should be a rate hike at the July 28-29 meeting, he only expressed hope for a "constructive family debate" with his colleagues and refused to give a clear direction. This attitude further increases uncertainty in the market about the Fed's policy path. Dispute over Fed reform heats up, independence struggle resurfaces. Warren calls on Waller to halt the comprehensive reform plan of the 12 regional branches of the Federal Reserve and questions whether the plan may not comply with the federal legal framework and poses a risk to weaken the Fed's independence. Such statements have further increased the political sensitivity of the reform issue. According to available information, as a member of the Board of Governors responsible for regional Reserve Bank affairs, Waller has some supervisory authority, but the regional branches themselves have strong autonomy in their institutional design, daily operations, and management decisions, leading to structural disputes and coordination difficulties over the reform plan's execution. Warren further pointed out that the direction of the reform plan seems to strengthen the centralization tendency of the appointment and management rights of regional Reserve Bank presidents, implying a connection with Trump-related political demands, suggesting it may weaken institutional independence. From a market perspective, this event reflects tensions within the monetary policy system's internal governance structure, with the focus shifting to the evolving paths of congressional attitudes and internal Fed consensus. Meta (META.US) "selling computing power" crashes AI hardware! Wall Street quickly dissects: Don't panic, this does not mean there is an oversupply of computing power, nor is it an inflection point in the industry. Earlier, news about Meta selling excess computing power externally indicated that the company is developing a cloud business plan that may offer two types of services: hosting models/API access similar to AWS Bedrock and "original computing power" rental similar to Neocloud. Following this news, the stock price of the next-generation GPU cloud star provider, CoreWeave, dropped by 13%, Nebius fell by 15%, and the AI hardware sector including chips experienced a sharp decline. In response, Wall Street investment banks such as UBS Group AG, Morgan Stanley, and Bernstein quickly dissected this event. This may not necessarily indicate a collapse in the fundamentals of AI but rather a pragmatic move by the industry giants to find a balance between computing power constraints and financial returns. This event should not be simplistically equated to "Meta no longer needs computing power." The meaning may vary for different assets. SoftBank aims at the US AI cloud market with a scale of 10GW! Masayoshi Son and Mark Zuckerberg both want to turn idle GPUs into cash. Is there really an oversupply of AI computing power? Just as market news shows concerns about a potential oversupply of AI computing power triggered by news that Meta, the parent company of Facebook, is preparing to lease/sell its idle AI computing power infrastructure, SoftBank Group and its telecommunications business unit will start leasing the AI computing power infrastructure resources they have deployed on a large scale in recent years to American companies in the next fiscal year, seeking to leverage the expanding AI data center project reserve to achieve a more robust profit path. Unfazed by "AI computing power oversupply" panic SK Hynix plans to invest 100 trillion Korean won to build NAND and advanced packaging plant. SK Hynix announced on Thursday that it plans to invest 80 trillion won (approximately $51.46 billion) to construct a new NAND flash memory plant in Cheongju, Chungcheongnam-do, South Korea, to address chip shortages caused by the AI boom. The plant, named M17, is expected to start operations in 2029. SK Hynix also plans to invest an additional 20 trillion won in constructing a chip packaging plant in Cheongju by the end of 2027. Individual Stock News Quiet period lifted! 22 investment banks will collectively "speak out" next week, and SpaceX (SPCX.US) faces a $2 trillion valuation challenge. Since completing its record-breaking initial public offering (IPO) last month, investors have been in an "information blackout" with very few financial forecasts available to judge the true value of the stock. But this situation is about to change next week. The quiet period for analysts involved in the $86 billion IPO, jointly underwritten by Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp, Citigroup, and JPMorgan, among 22 other banks, is coming to an end. Starting next Tuesday, investors are expected to receive a large number of research reports, target prices, and performance growth forecasts, providing clarity on the stock's likely short-term and future trajectory. Amazon.com, Inc.'s hardware chief reveals company's self-developed AI chip layout Echo, Fire TV, and future devices will switch to self-developed chips across the board. Panos Panay, head of Amazon.com, Inc.'s devices and services business, recently revealed the company's strategic layout for self-developed semiconductor chips in its proprietary hardware and disclosed that Amazon.com, Inc. is actively advancing experiments with various types of AI-powered devices. Panay stated: "We do design end-to-end silicone for the devices we ship." He pointed out that Amazon.com, Inc.'s self-developed chips have been used in products such as Echo Show 8, Echo Show 11, and Fire TV. Final verdict of 4.1 billion euros! The European Union's highest court rejects appeal, Alphabet Inc. Class C's 8-year Android antitrust battle ends in defeat. Alphabet Inc. Class C has finally lost a long-running legal battle against a 4.1 billion euro (approximately $4.7 billion) antitrust fine by the European Union. Judges at the EU's highest court upheld the previous decision by regulators to penalize the US tech giant for abusing its dominant position in the Android market. The European Court ruled on Thursday to maintain the earlier judgment against Alphabet Inc. Class C in the appeal against the European Commission's penalty. The decision is legally binding and marks a major victory for the Brussels-based regulatory body. Since first imposing the fine in 2018, the agency has been in a legal battle with Alphabet Inc. Class C. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) to provide financial guarantees for GPU purchases and take a cut from cloud service revenue. NVIDIA Corporation is using its strong balance sheet to help more companies purchase its expensive AI chips and is expected to profit from it. According to insiders from GPU cloud service providers Firmus and Sharon AI (both participating in the project) and three other companies doing business with NVIDIA Corporation, NVIDIA Corporation has promised to provide financial support to young cloud service providers renting out its graphics processing units in exchange for a share of the revenue. If these companies fail to find AI developers to rent GPUs, NVIDIA Corporation will support them by repurchasing unused GPU capacity. These transactions are part of NVIDIA Corporation's internal "AI Computing Partner" program, as referred to by some employees. NVIDIA Corporation has proposed to pay a guaranteed price for unsold GPU capacity from cloud service providers. Key Economic Data and Events Preview 20:30 Beijing time: US June non-farm payroll data, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27, and revised monthly rate of durable goods orders for May. 22:00 Beijing time: US factory orders monthly rate for May. Next day 04:30 Beijing time: US Federal Reserve balance sheet as of July 1.