The quiet period has been lifted! 22 investment banks will collectively "open the microphone" next week, and SpaceX's $2 trillion valuation exam is coming.

Since SpaceX completed its record-breaking initial public offering (IPO) last month, investors have essentially been in an "information blackout" - very few financial forecasts are available, making it difficult to determine the true value of the stock. But this situation is about to change next week. The quiet period for analysts involved in the $86 billion IPO underwritten by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Group, and JPMorgan Chase, among 22 other banks, is about to end. Beginning next Tuesday, investors are expected to receive a large number of research reports, target prices, and performance growth forecasts, which will help investors clarify the stock's potential short-term and future trends. At B. Riley Wealth, Chief Market Strategist Art Hogan said, "Everyone is talking about the heights this company could reach in 2030, rather than its actual performance in the next 12 months. This is an investment that looks to the distant future, but your vision still needs to span four years." The challenge of determining SpaceX's fair value lies in the huge gap between its current financial data and the expectations for the not-so-distant future. According to early estimates by institutional analysts not involved in this IPO, the company, formally known as Space Exploration Technologies Corp., is expected to have revenue of around $36 billion in 2026, but is not yet profitable. Compiled data shows that based on expected revenue for the next 12 months, SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio is as high as 41 times. For comparison, the highest in the S&P 500 index is Palantir Technologies (PLTR.US) at only 32 times, while Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) are below 9 times the expected sales. Robert Glendening, Senior Portfolio Manager of the Growth Stock Team at Allspring Global Investments, said, "A significant amount of the company's future value is still reliant on somewhat distant revenue streams. This is bound to lead to its stock price fluctuating much more than most more mature, stable companies." "I may not live to see that day." To bridge the gap between SpaceX's current valuation and reality, Wall Street has been aggressively promoting its aggressive growth path. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. research team expects the company's total revenue to reach $474 billion by 2030. Evercore ISI analysts expect sales to exceed $1 trillion by 2031. And reportedly, Morgan Stanley analysts believe revenue could reach as high as $34 trillion by 2040. Vickren Rai, Portfolio Manager and Macro Trader at First New York, joked, "I may not live to see that day. When forecasts are pushed so far into the future, there's really no way to verify." Therefore, the intensive release of brokerage reports in this round will be crucial - these reports should contain more specific short-term forecasts and quantitative indicators, providing benchmarks for investors to evaluate this rapidly becoming one of the hottest stocks in the market. The stock was issued at $135 on June 11, opened at $150 the next day, and quickly soared. On June 16, SpaceX closed at $201.80, with a market value of $2.6 trillion, ranking as the sixth largest company globally. However, the momentum has reversed. On Wednesday, the stock closed at $157.54, with a market value falling below $2.1 trillion, a 22% drop from its peak, approaching the IPO opening price. Overall, Wall Street leans towards a bullish view. Out of the 12 analysts tracking the stock, 8 have given a "buy" rating. Target prices for the next 12 months range from $165 to $401, with an average target price of $223, 41% higher than Wednesday's closing price. Estimated results indicate that SpaceX is expected to achieve a slight profit in 2028, with revenue doubling to $160 billion. However, according to industry research analyst George Ferguson and his team, even if sales increase eightfold by 2030, the stock's value will still be more expensive than those of tech giants with much higher revenue multiples. In their report on June 30, they wrote, "According to our model, despite the projected substantial increase in revenue and profit for the next five years, SpaceX's valuation remains high. Even with sales expected to grow nearly 9 times and EBITDA growing 17 times by 2030, the model shows that its valuation will still exceed the levels of profit giants such as Microsoft Corporation, Meta (META.US), Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US), and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) in 2026." "Beyond perfect pricing" This partly explains the skepticism of some analysts. Nicholas Owens of Morningstar gives the stock a "sell" rating; Argus has a "hold" coverage, stating that SpaceX's valuation multiples may need several years to return to more normal levels; CFRA analyst Keith Snyder gives a "sell" rating with a target price of only $115 for the next 12 months, below the IPO price, citing that the company's valuation is too high and significantly capital-intensive. In a report on June 12, Snyder wrote, "The current investment logic requires investors to endorse multiple difficult-to-achieve expectations simultaneously." The difficulty in valuing SpaceX lies in its difficulty in making horizontal comparisons with traditional aerospace companies, satellite operators, telecom service providers, cloud infrastructure manufacturers, or AI model companies. He further pointed out, "SpaceX is an outstanding company, but if its valuation already factors in future success, even outstanding companies may become unattractive investments." More dramatically, the end of the analyst quiet period coincides with SpaceX being included in the Nasdaq 100 Index. Considering the large number of funds tracking this tech stock benchmark, this move will bring significant buying support to the stock - it is estimated that the inclusion will bring in $4.9 billion in buying funds. David Trainer, CEO of the technology research company New Constructs, believes that this timing is favorable for minimizing stock price volatility. However, he still cautions investors to remain cautious, as the company's market value has significantly deviated from its fundamentals. "Its pricing has gone beyond perfection, even beyond this world," he said.