Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) Q2 delivery fees increase modestly, AI narrative heating up, automotive business remains the cornerstone.

Although the market's focus is increasingly turning towards artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous driving, and Siasun Robot & Automation business, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) automotive business remains the core support of the company's development. Analysts predict that Tesla, Inc.'s global automotive deliveries in the second quarter are expected to increase slightly year-on-year, but still significantly below the peak levels of recent years. According to analyst forecasts, Tesla, Inc.'s global automotive deliveries in the second quarter are estimated to be around 396,500 units, a year-on-year increase of about 3%. Last year, due to controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk's role in the Trump administration, the company's brand was temporarily affected, leading to modest growth in deliveries this year. However, this performance is still far below Tesla, Inc.'s quarterly delivery peak of nearly 500,000 units in recent years. Experts believe that in the context of the overall slowdown in the global electric vehicle market growth, Tesla, Inc.'s automotive sales may have entered a new stage of "low growth, but more stable." Compared to automotive sales, many investors are now more focused on Tesla, Inc.'s future in the AI, autonomous driving, and Siasun Robot & Automation fields. Especially after SpaceX completed a large-scale initial public offering (IPO) in June this year, speculation in the market about Musk's future integration of SpaceX, Tesla, Inc., and AI businesses continues to heat up. Nevertheless, the automotive business remains an important source of cash flow to support Tesla, Inc.'s future expansion. Musk previously estimated that the company's capital expenditures this year will exceed $25 billion, about three times that of last year. This funding will mainly be used to expand factory capacity, promote the mass production of Optimus humanoid robots, enhance AI infrastructure, and drive the commercialization of autonomous Cybercab taxi services. However, analysts believe that it will take several years for these businesses to generate significant revenue. Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, said that as long as automotive deliveries can maintain moderate growth, investors will be satisfied as the market focus has gradually shifted towards the development of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software subscription services and Robotaxi autonomous taxi services. Munster said that Tesla, Inc. still needs to prove that its automotive business, as the core foundation, remains stable. He pointed out that a year ago, the company's brand image was still affected by Musk's participation in the Trump administration's large-scale budget cuts, but now the brand image is gradually improving, which is one of the important reasons for the sales recovery. In terms of regional performance, the European market has become one of the fastest-growing regions for Tesla, Inc. Previously, Musk's support for certain right-wing parties in Europe and close relations with Trump had once dragged down local market demand. However, in the first five months of this year, propelled by Germany's introduction of new zero-emission car subsidy policies, Tesla, Inc.'s European sales increased by 57% year-on-year. At the same time, the Chinese market has also shown some improvement. Preliminary data from China Passenger Car Association showed that Tesla, Inc.'s shipments from the Shanghai Superfactory in May increased by 39% year-on-year. In contrast, the US market demand still faces pressure. Analysts predict that due to the cancellation of electric vehicle tax credits by the Trump administration last year, US sales in the second quarter may even be lower than the relatively weak levels of the same period last year. TD Cowen analysts said that if Tesla, Inc.'s deliveries in June are strong, the company's second-quarter deliveries are expected to exceed market expectations, boosting the stock price that has been under pressure recently. As of the close on Tuesday, Tesla, Inc.'s stock price has fallen by about 6.5% since the beginning of the year. However, with a lack of significant progress in the short term in autonomous driving, AI, and Siasun Robot & Automation businesses, market attention is gradually shifting to another potential catalyst, whether Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX (SPCX.US) may merge in the future. Some analysts believe that this potential transaction is influencing investors' valuation logic for Tesla, Inc. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. analyst Philippe Houchois said that as market expectations for the future integration of the two companies continue to rise, investors may pay more attention to the exchange ratio between the two parties to reduce the impact of share dilution. He believes that in the future, Tesla, Inc.'s stock may even gradually evolve into an important investment target tracking the value of SpaceX.