The tide continues to rise on Wall Street: Goldman Sachs and others are bullish on US stocks in the second half of the year, while Bank of America is wary of a summer "squat".

Goldman Sachs Group's Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer said that global stock markets are expected to continue their hot upward trend from the second quarter, with the earnings growth of technology companies being a key driving factor. Oppenheimer said in an interview, "As long as earnings continue to remain strong and expand into more areas, I believe that our stock markets in the second half of the year will continue to see gains," "The increase may be lower than what we saw in the first half of the year - but I think it will be on a fairly broad basis." Oppenheimer said that the earnings growth in the technology industry will continue, even as investors shift their focus from data center and cloud computing platform operators to semiconductor and equipment manufacturers supporting the artificial intelligence boom. Driven by the unmatched demand for artificial intelligence devices, chip stocks hit record highs for the quarter on Tuesday. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded an 88% increase in the second quarter, marking the strongest quarterly performance in the history of the index and is expected to have its best year ever. Meanwhile, the constantly rising capital expenditures of super large-scale artificial intelligence companies have made some investors fearful: these tech giants are currently trading at their lowest relative valuation in over a decade, with current trading prices slightly higher than a 15% premium over the S&P 500. Nevertheless, Oppenheimer remains optimistic, believing that the significant growth in capital expenditures of these super large-scale companies will continue to trickle down, stimulating the earnings growth of industries that support artificial intelligence development. He said that European companies are especially poised to benefit from this process. "Even after industry adjustments, Europe still has a valuation advantage compared to other markets," he said, "Indeed, on average, their growth rates are often lower, but their profit support is actually quite good, and I believe this situation will continue." Wall Street's "Mid-Year Transformation": From Hesitation to Ready for Upward Movement Entering July, Wall Street's tone towards the second half of the US stock market has dramatically shifted - it is no longer "can it still go up?" but "how high can it go?". In the past week, several mainstream investment banks have successively updated their year-end targets for the S&P 500, with ranges from 7800 to 8150 points, generally increasing by 300-600 points from the beginning of the year, implying a remaining increase of about 8%-14% for the year. Behind this "large target upgrade" is the unanimous bet of institutions on the super cycle of AI capital expenditures. The predictions of mainstream investment banks differ by only 300 points, a level of consensus rarely seen in recent years. The core logic supporting this target is highly convergent: AI capital expenditures are replacing traditional cycles and becoming the main engine driving profit enhancements. Citigroup bluntly stated that this is an "unprecedented mid-term super cycle in AI capital expenditures"; Goldman Sachs estimated a 24% year-on-year increase in EPS by 2026, with the AI industry contributing nearly half of the incremental profits to the S&P. Morgan Stanley estimates that AI-related capital expenditures will reach around $800 billion in 2026 and will increase to $1.16 trillion in 2027, with benefits extending from semiconductors to data center REITs, utilities, and industrial components. It is worth noting that the leadership structure is changing - both Morgan Stanley and Stifel pointed out that stock concentration has reached a 40-year high and funds are spreading from the "seven giants" to equally weighted indices, indicating a wider upward trend in the second half of the year. Bank of America warns of a "Summer Dip below 7000" Amidst a chorus of bullish sentiment, Bank of America is the most cautious exception in the mainstream camp. Its strategist Paul Ciana gave a year-end target of 7100 points in the third quarter outlook and warned of a possible deep dip in the summer. He believes that the S&P 500 may first fall below the 7122 support level, even if it briefly climbs to 7741 ("bubble target") to lure more buyers. Ciana suggests that the market may enter a correction phase in the coming months. He predicts that the S&P 500 index may fall back to around 6850 points, a level about 7.6% lower than the current level. He wrote, "The summer roadmap is a three-wave correction." Bank of America's core warning comes from leverage data: margin debt in May surged by 54% year-on-year, nearing levels seen before market peaks in 2000, 2007, and 2021. Once the year-on-year increase exceeds 60%, the risk of a sharp sell-off will dramatically increase. This view is in sharp contrast to the "5%-10% regular correction" expected by other investment banks - Bank of America predicts a drop of over 10% first, followed by a rebound towards the end of the year. The key to the trend of the US stock market in the second half lies in two points: one, whether AI capital expenditures can continue to withstand valuation pressure amid high margin debt; and two, the final decision of the September FOMC interest rate meeting, where a 64% rate hike is priced in. Regardless of the path, Barclays' first-ever forward target of 8800 points for 2027 suggests that even the most optimistic investment banks expect the upward trend to follow a moderate slope of year-on-year deceleration, rather than a straight-line rise.