Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures fell together. Washington will appear at the European Central Bank forum tonight.

Pre-market Market Trends 1. Pre-market on July 1st (Wednesday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes fell together. As of writing, Dow Jones futures were down 0.39%, S&P 500 index futures were down 0.37%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.66%. 2. As of writing, the Germany DAX index fell 0.01%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.61%, the France CAC 40 index fell 1.00%, and the Europe Stoxx 50 index fell 0.61%. 3. As of writing, WTI crude oil fell 0.71% to $69.01 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 1.06% to $72.18 per barrel. Market News 2008 Financial Crisis Class Reunites in Sintra! Fed Rate Hike Expectations Rise Against "AI Bubble Pressure Test" The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Wash, and three other central bank policy veterans who experienced the 2008 global financial crisis will appear together this week. The potential risks of a new round of financial turmoil continue to plague global central bank officials, including the Fed. The Fed Chair will publicly appear outside the US for the first time since taking office in May, at the ECB's annual central bank symposium in Portugal on Wednesday, where he will meet with ECB President Christine Lagarde and other key players from that market crisis. In addition to any hints or forward guidance on central bank interest rates, Wednesday's central bank monetary policy group discussion will also be closely scrutinized to observe any potential chemistry in the atmosphere of the central bank symposium following Wash's arrival. Iran Is Determined to Charge "Passage Fees" for the Strait of Hormuz Or ready to start in mid-August. According to two senior Iranian officials, Iran is determined to seek international recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz and its right to charge tolls for ships entering and leaving the Persian Gulf, even if it has to resort to force. Under a temporary agreement reached with the US earlier this month to end a three-month conflict, Iran has agreed to allow ships to pass through the strait for free within 60 days. However, Iranian officials believe that the wording of the agreement still allows them to decide which ships can pass through and which route they should take in this narrow waterway. The officials also stated that Iran is determined to ensure that this control is permanently and formally recognized after the expiry of the temporary agreement. In peace talks currently underway between the US and Iran, Iranian negotiators will not engage in discussions in other disputed areas until this point is acknowledged. If the temporary agreement is terminated without an extension, Iran will start charging shipping vessels for passage in mid-August, although the Iranian side has not yet announced specifics on the fee structure or implementation. Iran Announces Plan to Start Negotiations on the Iran-US Final Agreement at the Right Time On July 1st, local time, Iran announced that Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi led a delegation to Qatar to meet with Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad to discuss issues such as implementing the US-Iran memorandum of understanding and implementing a ceasefire in Lebanon, to "remove existing obstacles". It was reported that after the meeting between Gharibabadi and Mohammad, representatives from Iran, Qatar, and Pakistan held a trilateral meeting in Doha to review the implementation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding. Gharibabadi stated after the meeting that Iran had established a working group responsible for following up on the implementation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding and negotiating the final agreement, but formal negotiations had not yet begun. Iran continues to negotiate through intermediaries to determine the time and place for its working group to begin negotiations, and "if necessary conditions are met, the working group will formally start negotiations". 162 Lost Barrier, 170 Curse Approaching? Yen Defense War Reaches Turning Point, Japan's Exchange Rate Supervisor Implies US Approval of Currency Market Intervention Japan's top official in charge of currency affairs has suggested that foreign exchange intervention is an effective strategy, and pointed out that Tokyo maintains close communication with Washington on currency issues. At a time when the yen is hovering near its lowest level in nearly forty years, Junzaburo Mimura, Vice Minister of International Affairs at the Japanese Ministry of Finance, said in an interview on Wednesday that the Japanese side's last foreign exchange intervention two months ago was "apparently meaningful" judging by the subsequent market trends. He also indicated that Japan's intervention at the time did not face opposition or resistance from the US. He said, "As far as I know, the US has never made any comments opposing what we did, and if there were any differences, it was that there were actually some more supportive comments." Mimura emphasized the frequency of his communication with Washington officials, saying, "I may be in contact with my American counterparts by phone and email much more often than most people imagine." Trump Administration Lifts Ban on Anthropic's Strongest AI Model Fable 5, But Regulatory Uncertainty Still Needs to Be Addressed The US government has lifted restrictions on Anthropic's Fable 5 artificial intelligence (AI) model. After the AI startup addressed security concerns raised by the Trump administration, the model was allowed to be more widely released. The US Department of Commerce sent a letter to Anthropic co-founder Tom Brown on June 30, officially announcing the lifting of export controls on Fable 5 and Mythos 5. Anthropic confirmed on the X platform on Tuesday that it had received the Commerce Department's notice and would begin resuming access the next day. Although the restrictions on Fable 5 and Mythos 5 have now been lifted, the export control order previously issued by the US Department of Commerce was the most significant intervention by the US government in the operation of an AI company to date, sparking legal disputes over whether export controls could be used to regulate access to AI model permissions. Despite the ban on Fable 5 and Mythos 5 being lifted, concerns remain about the uncertainty of US government regulation of AI. Global AI Boom Boosts Chip Demand, South Korea's June Exports See Close to 50-Year Record Increase Under the continued drive of the global artificial intelligence boom, the demand for high-performance chips is strong, driving a significant increase in South Korea's exports. In June, exports increased by a whopping 70.9% year-on-year, reaching a record $102.25 billion, the fastest growth since October 1978. Imports for the same period increased by 30.1% to $66.10 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $36.15 billion for the month, surpassing the $27.04 billion surplus in May. The South Korean Ministry of Industry, Trade, and Resources pointed out that semiconductors remain the main engine of export growth, with chip exports reaching a new monthly high of $44.82 billion in June. The export growth rate for May was revised to 53.4%, and the June data also easily surpassed the median forecast of 57.3% by economists. Stock News Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) Plans Another Round of Layoffs! "AI Revolutionizing Everything" Sweeps Business Operations Computing infrastructure budgets accelerate the replacement of manpower. Media reports citing sources familiar with the matter revealed that US tech giant Microsoft Corporation is preparing to implement a new round of layoffs, which could affect thousands of employees. The tech giant is reportedly seeking to cut less than 2.5% of its global workforce; according to a team document submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as of June 30, the company had approximately 228,000 full-time employees at that time. Sources familiar with the matter indicated that the upcoming layoffs are expected to be announced as early as next week. The restructuring layoffs are expected to cover various business departments of Microsoft Corporation, especially the Xbox gaming business department, and sales and consulting-related positions. Paramount Sky (PSKY.US) Submits Antitrust Remedies to the EU Further progress in the $110 billion acquisition. According to a regulatory filing on Wednesday, Paramount Sky has submitted remedies to address the EU's competition concerns about its $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD.US). Last week, sources familiar with the matter told the media that this move is likely to help the deal obtain approval from the European Commission. Paramount stated that it "is confident that the remedies can directly and comprehensively resolve any concerns expressed in the European Commission's preliminary assessment and support timely approval". The European Commission, the EU competition enforcement agency, did not provide details of the remedies, consistent with its usual policy. A person familiar with the matter told the media last week that Paramount would propose to divest its joint venture with Universal Pictures to alleviate concerns raised by European film operators. The European Commission has extended the deadline for a decision from July 7 to July 22 to allow time to evaluate the remedies. The "Ammunition" of the Electric Power "Arms Dealer": Bloom Energy (BE.US) Expands Financing Capacity Fivefold to $25 Billion with BAM, AI Power Shortage Creates New Opportunities After-hours on Tuesday Eastern time, Bloom Energy announced that its financing cooperation with Brookfield Asset Management (BAM.US) for AI power projects has been expanded from $5 billion to $25 billion, five times the initial scale announced in October 2025. Under the latest agreement, Brookfield will provide up to $25 billion in funding support for Bloom Energy's fuel cell power projects through its special AI infrastructure fund. This scale is five times larger than the initial $5 billion announced in October 2025. The two companies stated in a joint statement that the expansion "reflects the strong and sustained demand from super-large data center operators and AI infrastructure developers for fast, reliable, and community-friendly power." The two companies are advancing a new "AI Factory" model that integrates power, computing, data center infrastructure, and capital from the project planning stage. Betting on Energy Transition and AI Demand, Middle East Conflict Rings the Supply Alarm! Alcoa (AA.US) Swallows South32 for $5.6 Billion to Expand Aluminum Business Alcoa Corporation has agreed to acquire South32 Ltd.'s bauxite, alumina, and aluminum smelting assets for up to $5.6 billion, further consolidating its position as a leading global aluminum producer. According to statements from both companies, Alcoa will pay $3.1 billion in cash and approximately $1 billion in Alcoa stock, while assuming $750 million in net debt and lease liabilities. In addition, if aluminum and alumina prices exceed agreed thresholds in the next four years, South32 will receive an additional $750 million in contingent consideration. AI Infrastructure Boom Drives Valuations to a 30-Year High! Carter's Incorporated (CAT.US) Becomes the Latest Target for "Big Short" Burry Michael Burry, the prototype of "The Big Short," announced on Tuesday that he has established a short position in Carter's Incorporated (CAT.US), a construction machinery manufacturer, and believes that the company has become one of the highest valued beneficiaries in the market from the artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom. According to Burry, Carter's Incorporated's current valuation has reached a level that has caused him significant concern. A chart he shared shows that as the stock price reaches an all-time high, Carter's Incorporated's price-to-sales ratio has risen to its highest level in at least the past 30 years. In addition, Burry also established short positions in NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), Applied Materials (AMAT.US), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US), and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) as he prepares for what he believes to be an overextended rally in AI concept stocks. Upcoming Important Economic Data and Events 20:15 Beijing time: US June ADP Employment Change 21:30 Beijing time: Speeches by Fed Chair Wash, ECB President Lagarde, BOE Governor Bailey, and BOC Governor Macklem at the ECB Forum 21:45 Beijing time: US June SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final 22:00 Beijing time: US June ISM Manufacturing PMI 22:30 Beijing time: US EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change for the week ending June 26