Guosen: The reconstruction of fresh business formats reshapes the consumption landscape, focusing on key targets with leading abilities to integrate the supply chain and scenes.

Guosen released a research report stating that the fresh format will transition from the validation period to the accelerated growth period, with increasing industry differentiation. Supply chain efficiency, scene integration capabilities, and brand differentiation will become core barriers. The report recommends focusing on the leading low-temperature milk leader New Hope Dairy (002946.SZ), top players in fresh snacks, and cross-border/platform-based fresh beer targets. It also suggests paying attention to traditional liquor companies leading in low-alcohol and youthful transformation, such as Chongqing Brewery (600132.SH). Guosen's main points are as follows: Demand and supply resonance drive the rapid rise of the fresh format With Z-generation consumers accounting for about 40% and an awakening health consciousness, consumers' demand for "freshness", "immediacy", and "scene experience" continues to increase, blurring the boundaries between retail and dining. The fresh format is characterized by short shelf life, high frequency, and on-demand production, making it the dominant form of consumption and retail in the next stage. On the demand side, the emotional value and health management driven by three major consumer groups resonate, while on the supply side, the sales of refrigerated trucks nationwide are expected to increase by 30.2% by 2025, with national backbone cold chain logistics centers covering 31 provinces and municipalities, providing solid support for the three-level daily distribution system of "central kitchen - regional warehouse - stores". Capital continues to increase, with BUSYMING Group having more than 20,000 stores after multiple rounds of financing and a Hong Kong IPO in 2026, confirming the strong market preference for the fresh format. Low-temperature milk validates the logic of "freshness", while fresh beer and fresh snacks enter the accelerated diffusion stage Looking at the diffusion path, low-temperature milk has validated the logic of "freshness". The market size of low-temperature milk in China increased from 77.4 billion yuan in 2019 to 89.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 3.0%, significantly outperforming ambient milk; the CAGR is expected to increase to 7.2% from 2025 to 2029, with the market size reaching 125.9 billion yuan by 2029, and the penetration rate is expected to increase from the current 25.3% to around 31.8%. New Hope Dairy and Yili have achieved national or regional leading models, with continuous improvement in net profit margin; fresh beer has entered the stage of scene diffusion, with a market size of about 58.67 billion yuan in 2025, and Fulde Home stores rapidly expanding from 270 at the beginning of 2025 to over 3,000 by the end of May 2026; fresh snacks, as the most explosive track currently, have a market size increasing from less than 5 billion yuan in 2020 to about 18 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR exceeding 40%, the model of top brands in a single store has been verified, and the number of national stores is expected to exceed 3,000 in the next 3-5 years. The fresh format is systematically reshaping the stock industries and driving the differentiation of valuation systems. The rise of the fresh format is driving consumer mindset shifts from "low price, multiple SKUs" to "freshness, health, and experience" in traditional snack channels, diverting some of the customer base from bulk snacks and supermarkets; brand companies are facing opportunities for a second growth curve, needing to shift from product power to supply chain efficiency and scene integration capabilities. Risk warning: Demand recovery is lower than expected; significant increases in raw material prices (milk source, malt, packaging materials, etc.); intensified industry competition leading to price wars and increases in loss rates; the speed of supply chain construction lags behind the speed of store expansion, leading to a weakening of the core value perception of "freshness"; stricter regulations on instant retail or new alcohol formats; food safety risks, etc.