Guosen: The core competitiveness of scenic spots is shifting towards operational capability. In the short term, we should focus on the summer window from June to August.

Guosen releases research reports, stating that the tourism industry is experiencing resonance between policy cycles and business cycles, with incremental demand coming from holiday system optimization, inbound tourism growth, and demographic changes. Overall, scarce resources often correspond to long-term operations, but do not necessarily correspond to high market value; leisure vacation products have a lifecycle, but proper operation can open up market value space. In terms of investment, engage in short-term trading during peak seasons and seek operational growth in the medium to long term. In the short term, focus on the summer vacation window from June to August, as cooling demand is expected to become a focus amid high temperatures and the El Nio background. Guosen's main points are as follows: Industry changes: The tourism industry is undergoing a structural shift in competitive elements, with the core shifting from resource endowment to operational capability. Post-epidemic "prosperity without wealth" is transitioning from cyclical fluctuations to normalcy, with consumers placing more emphasis on quality-price ratio rather than simply price-performance ratio; the opening of high-speed rail and the popularity of self-driving reduce travel thresholds, and crossover experiences such as concerts and sports events are emerging in large numbers, with tourism competition extending beyond just tourism sites; online platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu are reconstructing customer acquisition logic through algorithm distribution, leading to the emergence of niche tourist attractions and continued widening of performance differentiation due to differences in product experience and customer acquisition efficiency. Industry policies: The industry is currently experiencing resonance between policy cycles and business cycles, with incremental demand coming from holiday system optimization, inbound tourism growth, and demographic changes. With an 8-day Spring Festival holiday, a 5-day May Day holiday, and the addition of 2 days of statutory holidays throughout the year, long holidays have both the effect of expanding traffic and increasing customer spending; the Spring and Autumn holidays are accelerating in 13 provinces, and if implemented nationwide under a neutral hypothesis, they could increase the number of outbound trips by over a billion and increase domestic tourism revenue by over a hundred billion yuan; inbound tourists are expected to reach 155 million by 2025, with a 30.6% year-on-year increase in foreign visitors. Alongside demographic changes, senior citizen tourism is expected to become a growth point. Company models: Tourism sites are essentially offline traffic conversion businesses, with different models based on resource and operational focus. Tourism sites are essentially offline traffic businesses based on scarce resources, with different business models based on different resource and operational focuses. Natural tourism establishments like ticketing and cable car operations generally have gross margins of 60%-90%, with the industry's median comprehensive gross margin around 47%, featuring strong cash flow and high operational leverage; on the other hand, businesses like hotels and entertainment have more significant profit fluctuations and differentiation, but by effectively managing destination operations, they can enhance customer value and open up growth opportunities. Overall, scarce resources often correspond to long-term operations, but do not necessarily correspond to high market value; leisure vacation products have a lifecycle, but proper operation can open up market value space. Company growth: Drawing on overseas large-market value tourism sites and cruise companies, the firm expects domestic tourism industry ROE growth to come from product upgrades, capacity releases, and asset integration. Comparing with overseas theme parks and cruise companies, it is evident that long-term value comes not just from increased traffic, but from deepening consumer spending and replicating operational capabilities. The growth paths within China mainly involve three categories: product upgrades: Three Gorges cruises have evolved from "sightseeing" to "interprovincial vacation," with customer spending increasing from hundreds to over 4000 yuan; capacity releases: the opening of Huangshan Tourism Development East Gate is expected to increase future traffic, and the capacity of Emeishan Golden Summit cable car will double; asset integration: Regional integration led by local state-owned assets is accelerating, and national players are improving capital efficiency through cross-regional mergers and acquisitions and asset-light strategies. However, it is also important to consider that high-profit margins in natural tourism sites often come from existing ticketing, cable car, and merchandise business, and future development may face the contradiction of regional investment and development growth versus maximizing ROE; in contrast, artificial tourism sites rely on continuous product iterations and can enjoy valuation premiums during the initial stages of product verification, project replication, and growth narrative. Risk factors: Macroeconomic fluctuations, slower than expected consumer spending recovery, extreme weather conditions, delays in project construction progress, and intensified industry competition.