Zhongtai: Important IPO cycle waiting to be released, technology style may still be the main theme.

Zhongtai released a research report stating that the current market's most important core positive factor is the listing of Changxin Technology on the science and technology innovation board. The short-term market risk is limited, and the technology style may still be the main trend. Recently, the Changxin IPO was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. In Q1 of 2026, Changxin Technology's operating income reached 50.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 719%, with a net profit of 33 billion yuan. The listing of Changxin Technology has multiple significance: on one hand, it provides a reference standard and evaluation system for the capitalization path of subsequent hard technology companies, and on the other hand, it reflects the policy orientation of the capital market serving the country's innovation-driven development strategy and focusing on the core positions of "hard technology" companies. Zhongtai's main points are as follows: 1. Last week, the overall market was under pressure, with the AI industry chain still leading the way. Last week, the A-share market presented a pattern of "rising and falling, extreme differentiation" under the influence of multiple macro events. On the macro side, on June 21, Iran and the United States held negotiations in Switzerland, announcing an agreement in the early hours of the next day. In terms of technology, on the early morning of June 25, leading storage chip manufacturer Micron Technology announced that its performance in the third quarter of the 2026 fiscal year exceeded expectations. In this context, the A-share industry showed intense differentiation. As for leading industries, building materials and electronics were the two most prominent trends last week. Building materials were driven by the logic of rising prices of upstream CCL/electronic cloth. The electronics sector benefited from the catalyst of Micron's better-than-expected financial report, with the storage chip concept exploding on June 25. Non-bank financials also received a boost from the science and technology innovation board's IPO follow-up investment system and active market trading. 2. Major IPO cycles are building momentum, and the technology style is still the main trend. The most important core positive factor in the current market is the listing of Changxin Technology on the science and technology innovation board, with limited short-term market risks and the technology style potentially remaining the main trend. From a longer-term perspective, the market environment before and after Changxin's listing may need to be maintained in a range of "neutral to stable" fluctuation patterns: it is necessary to avoid disturbances caused by unilateral declines affecting the IPO issuance window, and also prevent rapid rises leading to valuation bubbles and narrowing IPO pricing space. At the same time, the market currently faces the issue of some parts of leveraged funds being overheated, with structural imbalances in leveraged funds. The recent frequent market fluctuations are essentially a spontaneous process of "deleveraging" and risk release. Only when the pressure of leveraged funds in the technology race is fully released can the next round of market trends led by Changxin's listing be built on a healthier and more sustainable financial foundation. The market's expectations for its IPO valuation are relatively conservative, and the post-listing valuation increase is expected to drive the semiconductor equipment sector up. In terms of overseas factors, US policy is a sentiment variable rather than a turning point in trends. In recent times, overseas technology stocks have experienced adjustments, not due to a deterioration in the fundamentals of the AI industry, but rather because the US regulatory authorities have upgraded restrictions on the release of advanced AI models. Recently, the US government has required companies to limit the widespread release of GPT-5.6 to a selected group of trusted partners before its broad release. This move comes less than two weeks after two of Anthropic's most advanced AI models were forced to be removed under government pressure. In terms of impact, at the short-term level, the slowdown in the iteration pace of advanced models directly suppresses the expected demand for upstream computing power chips, which is the direct cause of the recent adjustment in US technology stocks and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. However, it is important to note that the "arms race" for computing power among major model manufacturers and the massive capital spending by cloud service providers on AI infrastructure are the underlying drives of the AI market, and there has been no directional change at present. In the medium term, there is an "inherent unsustainability" in the US policy restrictions: if the continuous decline in technology stocks leads to systemic risks, the administrative authorities may be forced to change their policy stance; secondly, the global competitive landscape of the AI industry determines that excessive restrictions will weaken the international competitiveness of US companies. Therefore, Zhongtai believes that the short-term adjustment in the overseas computing power chain is more of a sentiment disturbance than a trend reversal. Future structural assessments: Technology diffusion rather than style change. First, the policy focus is clearly on the supply side of technology. The recent research directions of the State Council's main leaders still focus on high-end manufacturing, sending a very clear signal. Real estate sales and investment data remains at low levels, the growth rate of social retail sales is weak, and the domestic demand sector lacks a transmission chain from policy expectations to performance realization, lacking a sustainable basis for continued growth. Secondly, the logic driving the rise of brokerage firms is "AI extension" rather than "financial independent market trends". The recent activity in the brokerage sector is mainly driven by the expected gains from the science and technology innovation board IPO follow-up investment system, rather than a shift direction unrelated to technology. 3. Investment recommendations Overall, the market is likely to maintain a clear bottom and consolidation pattern in the next one to two weeks. After the important IPO listing, with uncertainties in the market settling down and sentiment improving, the market is expected to see a new round of highs. The future market style is still focused on technology diffusion rather than style change. 1. Focus on technology: storage and semiconductor equipment, overseas computing power chain. Storage and semiconductor equipment are the most certain directions currently. The short-term adjustment in the overseas computing power chain due to US policy disturbances has potential, but the fundamentals of the US AI sector are strong, and the revenue growth of major model manufacturers has not slowed down. 2. Non-technology directions: new energy, AI-related new materials and minor metals, engineering machinery, brokerage firms. In the new energy sector, the mid-term support is formed by the demand for electricity brought by the expansion of AI computing power and the logic of going abroad. In terms of AI-related new materials, the spiral of rising prices for coated copper-clad laminates (CCL) has started. Brokerage firms benefit from IPO follow-up investments and active market trading, still providing short-term trading opportunities. Risk warning: unexpected development in domestic economy, fiscal and monetary policies, global unexpected events, sudden events in the stock market, delayed or untimely data, distortion of historical trends, etc.