New stock outlook-Zixun Technology: High performance growth highlights growth fundamentals, track ceiling restricts valuation as core constraint

With the continuous prosperity of cross-border e-commerce, e-commerce security operation software is gradually becoming a necessity. Due to the prevention of cheating by businesses on cross-border e-commerce platforms, sellers are strictly prohibited from opening multiple stores on the platform. If the same device is used to log in, it is easily determined as a "related" account, leading to account suspension. However, sellers need to test products in multiple stores and spread the risk, which goes against the platform rules. The emergence of e-commerce security operation software is to solve this pain point. The software uses forged browser fingerprints and isolates IP addresses to make each store appear as an independent user in the eyes of the platform, in order to avoid being banned. This makes e-commerce security operation software the core risk control infrastructure for cross-border sellers. Recently, the largest domestic e-commerce security operation software provider has initiated the journey to go public in the US. It was observed that on June 26th, ZimTech (Fujian) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as ZimTech) submitted its application for listing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with GUOTAI JUNAN I as its exclusive sponsor. According to the prospectus, ZimTech has maintained a leading market share and achieved continuous high-speed growth. From 2023 to 2025, ZimTech's revenue is estimated to be approximately RMB 299 million, 470 million, and 687 million, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.58%; and the adjusted net profit for the same period is 50.53 million, 147 million, and 245 million, with a compounded annual growth rate of up to 120.22%. E-commerce security operation products are the core driving force behind the revenue growth, with a revenue share of over 96% in 2025. The history of development can be traced back to 2015 for ZimTech, which has been continuously focusing on the field of cross-border e-commerce software services. After more than ten years of accumulation, the company has built an integrated product matrix to meet the evolving needs of e-commerce sellers. ZimTech's product matrix mainly includes ZBird Browser, Station Axe Browser, and LinkFox. Among them, ZBird Browser is the first security operation software specially designed for cross-border e-commerce in China, launched by the company in 2018, specifically for complex store management scenarios. As of June 20th, ZBird Browser has served over 8 million stores since its launch, establishing a strong brand awareness and a loyal customer base. As AI technology has rapidly changed the operational paradigm of the e-commerce industry, ZimTech introduced the e-commerce AI application product matrix LinkFox in 2023. The company has built a comprehensive AI intelligent body matrix under the LinkFox brand, aiming to optimize the core operational processes of e-commerce stores and bring substantial AI productivity to sellers. In mid-2024, ZimTech successfully acquired the relevant assets of Station Axe Browser for about RMB 10 million. This acquisition is part of the company's strategy to enhance its technological strength and expand its product range. Station Axe Browser has a mature browser technology infrastructure and a relatively high level of user engagement, which can complement the company's existing e-commerce security operation platform business. With this, ZimTech's integrated product matrix has officially formed. However, in terms of revenue structure, e-commerce security operation products are the absolute core of the company's revenue, accounting for over 96.5% in 2025, of which ZBird Browser revenue accounts for 84.1% and Station Axe Browser revenue accounts for 10.6%. The scale of e-commerce AI application products is still relatively small, with a revenue share of only 2.5% in 2025. Behind ZimTech's continued high growth performance lies the continuous efforts of all product lines. ZBird Browser, as the company's core growth engine, achieved steady growth in revenue from 2023 to 2025, reaching approximately RMB 291 million, 411 million, and 578 million respectively. The acquisition of Station Axe Browser has also accelerated the release of performance, with revenue for this product in 2024 and 2025 reaching RMB 38.52 million and 72.757 million respectively. In addition, although the revenue share of e-commerce AI application products is still relatively low, the growth momentum is relatively strong. From 2023 to 2025, the revenue for these products was RMB 445,000, 2.791 million, and 17.448 million respectively, contributing to the growth of the company's total revenue. While ZimTech has experienced high growth in revenue, its profit release is more elastic. The prospectus shows that the compound annual growth rate of the company's adjusted net profit from 2023 to 2025 reached 120.22%, significantly surpassing the 51.58% revenue growth rate for the same period, with a difference of nearly 70 percentage points. This strong trend of "increased revenue and increased profit" is mainly due to the resonance of two core logics: Firstly, the continuous improvement of profit foundation. With the increase in revenue, the scale effect quickly dilutes marginal costs, driving the steady increase in gross profit margin. From 2023 to 2025, the company's gross profit margin increased from 60.9% to 65.2%, building a solid profit fortress. Secondly, the accelerated release of operating leverage. The company has demonstrated strong cost control capabilities during the expansion phase, achieving cost reductions and efficiency improvements through refined operations. During the same period, the total of the three expenses (sales, administration, and research and development) as a percentage of revenue significantly decreased from 49.24% to 30.03%. The continuous optimization of expenses highlights the operating leverage effect, becoming a key amplifier for the profit growth rate to significantly outpace the revenue growth rate. The company ZimTech is undoubtedly a high-growth quality target from the perspective of the profit and loss statement. However, after its listing, it will face a comprehensive examination of the capital market. At that time, the potential risks and challenges faced by the company in its business operations will also be fully exposed. Recent key operational data of ZimTech has shown a significant downward trend. For ZBird Browser, for example, the number of subscribers from 2023 to 2025 was 186,400, 267,700, and 415,600 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.53%. However, the average revenue per subscriber during the same period showed a continuous downward trend. At the same time, the net income retention rate and renewal rate have also decreased. These data reveal two hidden concerns: on one hand, the expansion of user base highly relies on the "price-for-volume" strategy, which has overspent the value of individual customers; on the other hand, the weakness of retention indicators directly points to weakening customer stickiness and rising churn rate. The stability and rebound of ARPU value have become a key observation point. If the declining trend of the unit price does not change, it will not only erode the existing high gross profit level but also cause a fundamental impact on the company's profit model. The acquisition of Station Axe Browser in 2024 also shows the same characteristics. The number of subscribers, the number of cumulative serviced stores, and the average monthly active users all achieved significant growth in 2025. However, the average revenue per subscriber decreased by 13.68%. The characteristic of "price-for-volume" is evident. Furthermore, the industry's ceiling may become the core constraint of valuation. Data shows that the size of the Chinese e-commerce security operation market is relatively limited, with a market size of only RMB 2.2 billion in 2025. Although it is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of 18.8% over the next five years and reach RMB 5.2 billion by 2030, the physical boundary of the market capacity will still limit the company's valuation expansion logic. Compared to the ceiling of the industry's scale, the extreme imbalance in the revenue structure may actually be the biggest long-term risk that ZimTech faces. In 2025, the revenue share of the company's e-commerce security operation products reached as high as 96.5%, with the core product ZBird Browser contributing 84.1% of the revenue, forming a business binding pattern of "one glory, one loss". The core value of e-commerce security operation products is to help cross-border sellers adapt to, or even evade, the account risk control rules of e-commerce platforms. Its survival soil completely depends on the ecosystem rules of third-party platforms. Once core platforms like Amazon, TikTok Shop adjust their account management policies - such as upgrading fingerprint recognition algorithms, cracking down on multiple account-related operations (similar to the regulatory logic behind the account suspension wave on Amazon in 2021), or raising the entry threshold for sellers, the core functionality of ZBird Browser will face the risk of becoming obsolete, which may directly impact the company's performance. Faced with the constraints of the industry's ceiling and the single revenue structure, ZimTech has ventured into LinkFox, attempting to open up a second growth curve with the e-commerce AI application matrix. However, the current results are still thin - with a revenue share of 2.54% and a gross profit margin of less than 30%, making it difficult for the company to grow into a new growth engine in the short term. Essentially, this "parasitic" model that deeply relies on third-party platform ecosystems lacks independent countercyclical genes and constitutes the underlying logic of its operational risks. Therefore, whether LinkFox can transition from an "experimental field" to a "main food storage" is not just an issue of expanding business boundaries, but also a decisive factor in whether the company can break free from the constraints of valuation and reconstruct its growth narrative. Its breakthrough in scale will be the core focus of ZimTech's reshaping of the valuation anchor point.