Overnight US stocks | The US military launches attacks on Iran, causing the three major indices to fall. Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US) has its worst weekly performance since the bursting of the internet bubble in 2001.

On Friday, the three major indexes fell, with the S&P 500 index closing below its 50-day moving average for the first time since April. The US military launched an attack on Iran, with President Trump accusing Iran of launching drone attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, "foolishly violating" the ceasefire agreement. The attack occurred over a week ago, after President Trump and the Iranian president signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at establishing a permanent peace agreement to end the war between the two countries. Vice President Pence traveled to Switzerland last weekend to discuss the agreement with the Iranian side. After the attack, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated, "We announce counteractions against the US military's attack on Sirik Island." This week, the S&P dropped about 1.9%, the Dow rose about 0.4% for the third consecutive week, and the Nasdaq dropped about 4.4%. Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US) fell 19.4% this week, marking the largest weekly decline since the dot-com bubble burst in August 2001, as investors' concerns about AI financing intensified. In the latest fiscal year, the company's capital spending surged by 162%, with a nearly $24 billion deficit in free cash flow and a debt of up to $130 billion. [US Stock Market] At the close, the Dow fell 44.51 points, or 0.09%, to 51876.11 points; the Nasdaq fell 60.99 points, or 0.24%, to 25297.62 points; and the S&P 500 index fell 3.47 points, or 0.05%, to 7354.02 points. Semiconductor and storage concept stocks weakened, with Western Digital Corporation (WDC.US) falling 13%, Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX.US) falling 12%, SanDisk (SNDK.US) falling 10%, Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) falling 6.6%, and Qualcomm (QCOM.US) falling 7%. [European Stocks] The German DAX30 index fell 328.90 points, or 1.32%, to 24671.64 points; the UK FTSE100 index fell 19.23 points, or 0.18%, to 10510.66 points; the French CAC40 index fell 46.74 points, or 0.55%, to 8384.87 points; the European Stoxx 50 index fell 45.53 points, or 0.73%, to 6222.00 points; the Spanish IBEX35 index fell 75.13 points, or 0.39%, to 19438.47 points; and the Italian FTSE MIB index fell 480.41 points, or 0.93%, to 51302.50 points. [Asian Stock Markets] The Nikkei 225 index fell 4.15%, and the KOSPI index in South Korea fell 5.81%. [US Dollar Index] The US Dollar Index, measuring the dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.07% to 101.357 in the currency market's closing. At the close of the New York currency market, 1 euro was exchanged for 1.1386 US dollars, higher than the previous trading day's 1.1373 US dollars; 1 British pound was exchanged for 1.3200 US dollars, higher than the previous trading day's 1.3198 US dollars. 1 US dollar was exchanged for 161.74 Japanese yen, lower than the previous trading day's 161.80 Japanese yen; 1 US dollar was exchanged for 0.8097 Swiss francs, lower than the previous trading day's 0.8098 Swiss francs; 1 US dollar was exchanged for 1.4192 Canadian dollars, lower than the previous trading day's 1.4197 Canadian dollars; and 1 US dollar was exchanged for 9.7409 Swedish kronor, higher than the previous trading day's 9.7352 Swedish kronor. [Cryptocurrencies] Bitcoin hovered near the $60,000 mark, reporting $60,060 at the time of writing; Ethereum was at $1577.16. [Crude Oil] International crude oil futures prices fell significantly on the 26th as the market focused on improving political tensions in the Middle East and prospects of increased oil supply, with the price of the New York crude oil futures near-month contract falling below $70 per barrel for the first time since March. At the close on the 26th, the price of light crude oil futures for August delivery at the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $2.69 to $69.23 per barrel, a decrease of 3.74%; and the price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery fell by $3.27 to $71.99 per barrel, a decrease of 4.34%. [Precious Metals] Spot gold rose 1.52% to $4087.84 an ounce; spot silver rose 2.28% to $59.186 an ounce. [Macro News] US Central Command: US strikes against Iran in response to its attack on merchant ships. The US Central Command stated that on June 26th, the military conducted strikes against Iran as a strong response to the attack on a merchant ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz the previous day. On June 25th, Iran used one-way attack drones to attack the cargo ship "Ever Lovely." US military aircraft then struck Iranian missile and drone storage facilities and coastal radar stations. Iran's military's unprovoked intrusion against merchant ships clearly violated the ceasefire agreement. Furthermore, with a large amount of trade passing through this crucial international TRADELINK passage, Iran's dangerous behavior also undermines freedom of navigation. US Central Command forces will continue to provide coordination and support for the safe passage of merchant ships through the strait. The US military will remain present and vigilant to ensure that all agreements reached with Iran are adhered to and effectively enforced. Trump threatens Europe not to impose digital services tax. US President Trump stated on social media, "Many European countries have been discussing imposing a digital services tax on American companies. Some of these countries are close to implementing it. I hereby declare that any country imposing such taxes will have 100% tariffs imposed on all goods it exports to the US. These tariffs will replace any trade agreements with the relevant countries, regardless of whether these agreements have been implemented, signed, or not yet effective. In addition, if the relevant countries insist on imposing such taxes, the 100% tariffs will take effect immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter." Fed's Kashkari: Expects one rate hike in 2026. Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that signs of widespread inflation have led him to expect one rate hike this year, as announced in the Fed's economic forecast earlier this month. The rate is expected to remain unchanged in 2027. Kashkari said in an interview with the media on Friday, "I am concerned about inflation, and this is not just related to the situation in the Middle East, but a more widespread indication of inflation pressures in the economy." The Iran war has raised oil prices, and prices in many categories have also risen. This has heightened the concerns of some Fed officials, who believe that inflation is more broad-based and sustainable, and may require the central bank to take stronger action. A report released earlier this week showed that the May PCE annual rate recorded a 4.1% increase, the largest since April 2023. Prices have exceeded the Fed's 2% target for over five years. In the Fed's dot plot projections released last week, half of the officials who provided dot plot projections expect at least one rate hike this year. US June Consumer Confidence Index higher than initial estimate boosted by falling gasoline prices. The final value of the US June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was 49.5 (initial value 48.9), up nearly 10% from May due to a slight drop in gasoline prices. Consumer confidence improved across income, wealth levels, and political affiliations. Expectations for the future business condition surged by 16%, indicating that consumer concerns about the long-term consequences of the Iran conflict appear to be easing. However, the confidence index remains in negative territory, down 13% from February 2026 (before the Iran conflict erupted) and nearly 20% lower than the same period last year. The cost of living remains the top concern for consumers: for the third consecutive month, over half of consumers mentioned that high prices are dragging down their personal finances. Future annual inflation expectations fell slightly from 4.8% in May to 4.6% this month, still at high levels. The current reading is significantly higher than the 3.4% in February before the Iran conflict erupted and all data for the entire year of 2024. Long-term inflation expectations fell from 3.9% last month to 3.3% in June, slightly higher than the range of 2.8%-3.2% for 2024. [Stock News] It is reported that OpenAI is considering an IPO as early as 2027. According to sources, OpenAI is considering going public as early as 2027, with its AI competitor Anthropic potentially going public first. Sources revealed that both companies have secretly submitted IPO applications to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), but OpenAI's management expects that Anthropic is likely to go public first. Earlier reports indicated that OpenAI's goal was to go public this fall, while Anthropic is considering an IPO as early as October. Sources state that recent volatility in tech stocks has affected OpenAI's IPO timing. Discussions are ongoing, and details about OpenAI's IPO plans may change. Meta (META.US) CEO Zuckerberg urges Meta to explore collaboration with Polymarket and Kalshi. Three sources revealed that Meta CEO Zuckerberg is urging executives at the company to explore partnerships with popular prediction trading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi. Currently, Meta is developing a similar application. The app Meta is building is called Arena, where users can bet on various events. As the prediction trading sector continues to expand, Meta hopes to get a piece of the action. Internal company executives stated that Arena and Polymarket, Kalshi, which support cash betting, are fundamentally different: the app will use virtual points similar to online game points rather than real money. Three unnamed employees (all of whom have signed non-disclosure agreements) stated that Zuckerberg has placed Arena as a core focus project and its strategic planning is more extensive than previously understood by the public. He has requested company executives to actively engage with Polymarket and Kalshi, but there is currently no definite decision on how the two parties will collaborate.