Global LNG crisis sees the first light of dawn! Qatar is expected to lift the force majeure clause for Asian buyers in July, aiming to restore 80% of its production capacity within two months.

According to sources, QatarEnergy has not yet informed its Asian customers of its intention to extend the force majeure clause. The company usually notifies customers about a month before the extension declaration, strongly indicating its intention to let the clause expire officially in mid-July. Similar force majeure clauses covering European buyers are expected to expire in mid-August, and buyers also expect the clause to be lifted. The force majeure clause allows suppliers to delay deliveries due to uncontrollable factors such as war or extreme weather. Its removal will release previously restricted Qatari LNG cargoes, helping to alleviate European concerns about spot supply during low inventory periods and providing Asian buyers with more choices during the peak summer electricity demand. The global LNG supply crisis, which has lasted for nearly four months, is finally seeing substantial relief. The US-Iran "60-day agreement": Reopening the Strait of Hormuz The direct premise for the lifting of Qatar's force majeure is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In March, 2026, Iran launched missile attacks on Qatar's Ras Laffan large-scale liquefied natural gas facility, severely damaging two liquefied production lines. Subsequently, the Strait of Hormuz was actually closed, cutting off approximately one-fifth of global LNG supply. QatarEnergy announced force majeure in March, shocking the market - this Gulf producer is known for its reliability and rarely interrupts supply even in turbulent times. After several rounds of negotiations, the US and Iran officially signed a temporary peace agreement in Switzerland on June 19. On June 23, Iran's permanent representative to the United Nations in Geneva, Baharvand, officially confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to global merchant ships for 60 days, with no tolls. The US Treasury Department simultaneously issued waivers for oil exports, and Iran's $12 billion frozen assets overseas began to be unfrozen in batches. However, the fragility of the peace window cannot be ignored. The core limitation of this round of agreements is that consensus still focuses on technical areas such as economics and navigation, and the most crucial core issues have not entered substantial negotiations. Both sides have agreed on a roadmap for the final agreement within 60 days, establishing a high-level committee to coordinate progress. The agreement stipulates that the management of the Strait of Hormuz will be jointly decided by Iran and Oman after the 60-day deadline. Iran has clearly stated that after 60 days, whether the strait will remain open depends on the US fulfilling its obligations. Israel is the biggest external variable - once the southern Lebanon fire reignites, Iran could shut down the strait again at any time. Despite this, shipping data has already shown positive signals. Ship tracking data shows that QatarEnergy's LNG carrier "Al Hamla" became the first post-war vessel to enter the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz to Ras Laffan to load LNG, with an expected load of over 209,000 cubic meters of LNG. Up to eight empty LNG carriers have arrived at the Ras Laffan hub, preparing to load ultra-cold natural gas in the coming days. Other LNG carriers are heading towards the Strait of Hormuz. The movement of these ships marks the resumption of Qatar's LNG export chain. Recovery roadmap: 50% recovery in one month, 80% recovery in two months The Qatari government has established a clear timeline for recovery. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani told the media this week that aside from the damaged facilities, Qatar plans to resume normal LNG production within a few weeks. According to sources, QatarEnergy has informed buyers that production is expected to increase to around 50% of capacity within a month of the safe navigation resumption in the Strait of Hormuz and to about 80% within two months. This timeline is faster than the expectations of some analysts and traders. Qatar's pre-war LNG production capacity is about 77 million tons per year. The market previously estimated a global LNG surplus of about 60 million tons in 2026, but Qatar's sudden reduction of about 12.8 million tons eliminated this buffer overnight. It is estimated that the Asian market alone lost about 10.2 million tons per year of LNG supply. QatarEnergy has been preparing for rapid recovery since April, including testing equipment and carrying out necessary maintenance. Multiple production lines have been running at lower capacities, supplying neighboring countries and leaving operational space for future production increases. Satellite monitoring data from Energy Aspects' Kayrros division shows that Ras Laffan Line 3 resumed operation last Sunday. However, the road to recovery is not without challenges. On June 22, a technical accident during the restart process at the Ras Laffan plant led to an explosion, resulting in 13 deaths and at least 66 injuries. This event has added uncertainty to the recovery process. QatarEnergy still expects to fully restore available production capacity by October. "Permanent scars" on production capacity: 17% of capacity requires 3-5 years to repair Despite the acceleration of the recovery process, the production capacity of the Ras Laffan plant has left "permanent scars". The Iranian missile attacks in mid-March damaged two of Qatar's 14 liquefied production lines - Line 4 and Line 6, accounting for about 17% of the country's LNG export capacity. Saad Al Kaabi, CEO of QatarEnergy, previously stated that repair work will take three to five years. A natural gas to liquid fuel facility was also affected, expected to be offline for at least a year. This means that even after recovering 80% of capacity in two months, the Ras Laffan plant will still operate at a lower level than before the war. The global LNG market will continue to face a structural supply gap in the foreseeable future - about 17% of Qatar's capacity will not be able to return to the market for several years. In addition, Qatar's shutdown has cut off about 30% of the global helium supply capacity - helium is a byproduct of the Ras Laffan LNG facility and is widely used in semiconductor manufacturing, medical imaging, and the aerospace industry. The recovery of helium supply will progress in parallel with LNG production. Market impact: Spot price premium narrows, but structural gap remains The lifting of Qatar's force majeure will have a profound impact on the global LNG market. For global investors and energy buyers, the return of Qatar's LNG is undoubtedly a positive signal - but it does not mean that the alarm has been completely lifted. The 60-day opening window of the Strait of Hormuz, the unresolved US-Iran nuclear issue, and the deep-rooted structural contradictions in Middle Eastern geopolitics all mean that this "global LNG market stabilizer" could still be revoked at any time. In the short term, the lifting of force majeure will release previously restricted Qatari LNG cargoes, significantly improving the liquidity of the global LNG market, and the spot price premium is expected to narrow. Asian buyers will have more choices during the peak summer electricity demand. The head of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum stated this week that if the Strait of Hormuz remains open, the natural gas market will stabilize in the third quarter; by the fourth quarter, if Gulf shipping remains smooth, the natural gas market should achieve a rebalance. In the medium term, about 17% of Qatar's capacity will require three to five years to repair, meaning that the global LNG market will still face structural supply constraints. The actual production progress of Qatar's North Field expansion project is a key variable. In addition, the pricing mechanism of Qatar's long-term contracts may need to be renegotiated - price fluctuations during the force majeure period have significantly changed the risk expectations of both buyers and sellers. Geopolitical risks remain the biggest variable. The 60-day opening window of the Strait of Hormuz has a definite time limit. If the situation deteriorates again, QatarEnergy may restart force majeure at any time. Recent incidents of ship attacks have once again raised concerns in the market. Shipowners, traders, and producers are closely monitoring further developments in the situation. For Asian economies, especially China, South Korea, and Japan, which rely on Qatari LNG, the recovery of Qatar's supply will significantly alleviate energy security pressures. Currently, Qatar is almost the only long-term LNG supplier for South Korea in the Middle East, as contracts with other Middle Eastern countries have expired. For Europe, with inventory at low levels, the return of Qatari LNG will help alleviate supply anxieties before winter.