If you don't agree, then you'll leave the group? Iraq is pressuring OPEC by using production quotas as leverage.

A senior official from the Iraqi Ministry of Oil revealed on Thursday that if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) does not significantly increase Iraq's production quota, Iraq will be forced to consider all viable options. Another source stated that Iraqi officials had previously studied the possibility of withdrawing from OPEC, but the current plan is to remain in the organization and strive for a higher production quota. With the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, hundreds of oil tankers previously stranded in the Persian Gulf are returning to the market with large supplies of Middle Eastern oil. Oil-producing countries in the region are also working to restore production capacity. However, the speed of production recovery varies among different countries. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, with complete infrastructure and mature technical conditions, are expected to return to pre-shutdown levels within a few weeks. The situation in Iraq is much more complex. Its southern exports rely heavily on the Basra Terminal, and prolonged shutdowns could disrupt reservoir depletion balance, leading to difficulties in rapidly restoring production capacity in some older fields. The industry estimates that it will take 6 to 12 months for Iraq to fully recover to maximum production, and the closer it gets to full production, the greater the difficulty. The aforementioned official from the Iraqi Ministry of Oil stated that due to the significant drop in oil exports caused by conflicts in the Middle East, Iraq is facing a severe financial crisis. Therefore, OPEC should take into serious consideration Iraq's demand for an increase in production quotas. Iraq has long argued that its current OPEC quota does not match its actual production capacity and post-war reconstruction economic needs. The country's Prime Minister has called for a review of oil export quotas based on actual production capacity and population size. However, it is worth noting that Iraq has consistently exceeded its quotas under the OPEC+ framework in recent years. Due to the dispersed energy policy responsibilities between the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government, Iraq's ability to implement production cuts is limited. The next OPEC+ meeting will be held on July 5th. With Iraqi officials making threatening remarks regarding a higher production quota, the latest decision to be announced by OPEC+ next week is expected to be closely watched. Obtaining a higher production quota will not only help alleviate pressure on Iraq to meet quota targets, but will also increase fiscal revenue through higher crude oil exports in the future. However, even with a higher production quota, the slow pace of production recovery in Iraq may have little short-term impact on the global oil supply landscape. For OPEC, if Iraq, one of its founding members, eventually considers withdrawing, it could be another blow to the organization following the UAE's exit earlier this year. As the third largest oil-producing country in OPEC, the UAE announced on April 28th that it would withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ mechanisms starting May 1st, ending its 59-year membership history. The UAE's exit was not a sudden decision, but a result of the accumulation of contradictions between long-term production capacity demands and OPEC's collective decision-making mechanism. In recent years, the UAE has been continuously expanding its energy production capacity, with a goal to increase daily oil production to 5 million barrels by 2027. However, OPEC's production quota mechanism has always been a constraint on its capacity expansion. At various OPEC+ meetings, the UAE has repeatedly sought to increase production quotas to match its capacity investments, but has often clashed with Saudi Arabia, which advocates for production cuts to maintain prices, leading to multiple instances where it was on the brink of exiting before finally making it official. Analysts point out that the UAE hopes to free itself from the constraints of OPEC quotas, release idle capacity, and adjust production levels flexibly. By leaving OPEC, the UAE hopes to gain full autonomy in energy production and trade, maximizing its economic growth potential. According to its official statement, after exiting, the UAE will no longer be bound by production restrictions and will be able to collaborate more flexibly with global partners and investors, focusing on releasing production capacity of crude oil, petrochemical products, and natural gas, aligning with its long-term economic vision. In the long run, the UAE will be able to independently formulate production policies, avoiding missing market opportunities due to collective decisions of OPEC, and facilitating its state-owned oil company, ADNOC, in advancing its AED 550 billion capital expenditure plan, promoting the energy industry towards low-carbon and diversified transformation, balancing short-term gains with long-term sustainable development. Furthermore, by breaking free from OPEC restrictions, the UAE may further expand energy cooperation with non-OPEC countries, reducing dependence on a single cooperation system and enhancing its bargaining power in global energy trade. At the same time, the UAE's exit may have a significant impact on OPEC's influence and the stable operation of the global energy market. As a global core alliance of oil-producing countries established in 1960, OPEC's core role is to stabilize international oil prices through collective production adjustments, and the departure of the UAE as a core member directly weakens OPEC's ability to regulate production - especially when Saudi Arabia becomes the only member with substantial idle capacity, greatly reducing OPEC's ability to smooth market supply imbalances. More importantly, some analysts believe that the UAE's exit could be the "beginning of the end of OPEC." Energy industry analysts believe that as the UAE leaves, OPEC will not only lose about 15% of its production capacity, but also lose a member country that adheres most strictly to the organization's rules. Other OPEC member countries may follow the UAE in the future, which would mean a fundamental reshaping of the Middle East geopolitical landscape and the global oil market. In the worst-case scenario, if Iraq follows the UAE in leaving OPEC, more oil-producing countries dissatisfied with production quotas may also consider exiting, further weakening OPEC's collective control capabilities. The global energy market may enter an era of "decentralized bargaining", and oil price fluctuations may become more frequent.