Hong Kong stock concept tracking | The most tense period of the Strait of Hormuz may have passed! Focus on the structural shipping market (with concept stocks)

With the recent phased ceasefire arrangement between the United States and Iran, maritime activities in the Strait of Hormuz have begun to gradually resume. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) of the United Nations has initiated a large-scale vessel evacuation plan to assist hundreds of commercial ships and oil tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf to pass through the strait in an orderly manner. However, industry insiders generally believe that although the Strait of Hormuz has "reopened", there is still a long way to go before normal operations are restored, and the global shipping industry will continue to face pressures such as high insurance costs, capacity mismatches, and supply chain adjustments in the short term. According to information released by the International Maritime Organization, some cargo ships, bulk carriers, and oil tankers have already passed through the Strait of Hormuz under the coordination mechanism, with evacuation work of about 11,000 sailors simultaneously underway. However, the current average daily traffic is only about 25 vessels, far below the normal level of over 120 vessels per day before the conflict, with about 500 to 600 vessels still waiting to pass through. Market data shows that despite the reopening of the waterway, shipping risk premiums remain high. The rates for some very large crude carriers (VLCCs) have soared to around $470,000 per day at one point, significantly higher than pre-conflict levels. Additionally, war risk insurance premiums remain high, and many ship owners are still cautious about returning to the Strait of Hormuz. Industry analysis indicates that the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has mainly impacted the shipping industry in three aspects: Firstly, shipping costs have significantly increased. During the conflict, war risk insurance rates have soared. Market data from the insurance industry shows that related premiums have increased several thousand times higher than before the crisis, with the cost of single transit insurance for some vessels reaching around 4% of the vessel's value. Even under the ceasefire framework, insurance institutions have not fully reduced the risk rating. Secondly, there is a short-term imbalance in global capacity allocation. Due to the long-term stranding of numerous oil tankers, liquefied natural gas carriers, and bulk carriers in the Persian Gulf, some shipping routes are experiencing a shortage of vessels, while the Middle East region has an overcapacity of vessels. As vessels gradually resume operations, the global shipping market may face significant price fluctuations in the coming months. Thirdly, the priority of supply chain security has increased. This crisis has exposed the global trade's reliance on critical maritime routes. More and more cargo owners and energy companies are beginning to evaluate alternative transportation options, including increasing strategic stockpiles, promoting pipeline construction, and optimizing source layouts to reduce dependence on the single channel of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, the most tense phase of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz may be over, but the "post-crisis era" of the shipping industry has just begun. High insurance costs, strict security reviews, and supply chain restructuring will be important themes in the global shipping market for the foreseeable future. Looking at the secondary market performance, in the cyclical industry, there is a clear positive correlation between the high-frequency freight rates and stock prices. Since 26 years, maritime stocks have been affected by geopolitical conflicts such as the US-Iran conflict, with structural trends in various sub-sectors, and the tanker industry witnessing the most significant improvement. In the container shipping sector, based on the trend of trade protectionism and the high energy prices caused by the US-Iran conflict, there has been a surge in freight rates from April 2026, reaching close to the high point of 24 years. In the oil shipping sector, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran conflict led to a spike in oil tanker rates followed by a decline, although the overall center has risen, and long-term charter prices have reached new highs. For dry bulk shipping, there has been an improvement in demand since March, with congestion in the Panama Canal leading to an increase in freight rates. Looking ahead, for container shipping, attention should be paid to the impact of changes in tariff policies and regional conflicts in 26 years. In the first half of 26, demand for ton-miles on the main routes between Europe and the Americas has been repaired due to the surge, while demand for container shipping in emerging markets remains strong. The demand for ton-miles for container shipping in 26-27 is expected to be 2.3%/3.0%; the circulation around the Red Sea continues to add to the blockage of the Middle East waterway, increasing the average sailing distance in 26; assuming the Red Sea resumes navigation in the middle of 27, the growth rate of ton-miles in 26-27 is expected to be 3.4%/-1.2%. In terms of supply, the growth rates of container shipping capacity in 26-27 are expected to be 3.9%/7.5%. Price outlook, while supply remains limited in 26 due to the surge in demand, there may be a sharp rise in prices in the short term; in 27, with relative supply abundance, prices may decline in a stepped manner. For oil shipping, the energy supply chain is being reshaped, and the supply-demand situation for oil tankers is improving. In March 26, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil transport volume dropped significantly, but with the easing of tensions between the US and Iran and improved passage through the strait, it is anticipated that the volume of oil transport in 26 will decrease by 4.9%, and the growth rate of ton-miles demand will narrow to -3.1% (trade route adjustments, longer sailing distances). If inventory needs persist in 27, the growth rate of ton-miles demand is expected to recover to +6.9%. In terms of supply, the growth rates of shipping capacity in 26-27 are expected to be 5.0%/5.7%, with VLCC growth rates of 4.2%/6.0%; however, due to factors such as sanctioned ships and the retirement of older vessels, the actual effective supply of capacity remains tight (26/27 25-year-old ships account for 9.6%/12.6%). Price outlook, in the second half of 26 after the improvement in passage through the strait, the Middle East cargo market is expected to see a concentrated release, and prices in Q3 may increase significantly; prices in 27 are expected to remain high. For dry bulk shipping, focus on the long-term increase in iron ore and grain trade turnover. Looking ahead to 26-27, the acceleration of iron ore shipments (from Western Australia), improved demand for coal transportation, and the continuation of contracts for grain trade between the US and China are expected to support the overall prosperity of dry bulk shipping. The growth rates of dry bulk shipping volume in 26-27 are projected to be 1.3%/1.4%, with growth rates of ton-miles demand at 2.1%/1.7%. In terms of supply, the growth rates of shipping capacity in 26/27 are expected to be 3.5%/3.8%, with limited growth in Capesize capacity. Price outlook, if tensions between the US and Iran ease, there may be a marginal decline in prosperity in Q3, but the El Nio phenomenon may lead to accelerated coal destocking and drought in the Panama Canal, resulting in a rebound in prices in Q4. In the long term, the center of dry bulk shipping prices is expected to steadily rise. CMSC points out that in the second half of 26, attention should be paid to the rise in oil tanker prices following the easing of US-Iran tensions, the improvement in profits for the container shipping industry in Q3, and the impact of the El Nio phenomenon on the dry bulk industry in Q4. In the second half of 2026, there are two main areas of focus: 1) the improvement in passage through the strait and the trend of rising freight rates after the easing of US-Iran tensions; 2) the tight container shipping space and strong freight rates. Related concept stocks: COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919): Morgan Stanley's research report states that COSCO Shipping Holdings' first-quarter performance was solid, with a net profit of 6 billion yuan, roughly in line with the bank's expectations. Management has a positive outlook on the industry's prospects, believing that the market is overly focused on supply growth and has overlooked the absorption of about 8% to 9% of disrupted capacity globally, resulting in a more relieved effective supply. The bank believes that the company's performance reflects a positive momentum in the industry before the peak season, and the company is also focused on improving shareholder returns. It maintains an "overweight" rating, with target prices of HK$21 for H shares and HK$22 for A shares. The Pacific Shipping (02343): CICC's research report states that The Pacific Shipping's 2026 net profit of 176 million USD remains unchanged, with newly introduced 2027 net profit of 180 million USD. The current stock price corresponds to 11.9 times 2026 price-to-earnings ratio and 11.5 times 2027 price-to-earnings ratio. It maintains an outperform rating, considering the increasing risk appetite in the industry, and raises the target price by 41.67% to HK$3.4 per share, corresponding to 12.9 times 2026 price-to-earnings ratio and 12.5 times 2027 price-to-earnings ratio. OOIL (00316): Morgan Stanley's research report states that the target price of OOIL has been raised by 12.4%, from HK$89 to HK$100. The bank maintains a "underperform" rating on the company, mainly due to the expected oversupply in the next 12-24 months. However, if the spot market performs strongly in the next 1-2 months with a surge in US replenishment demand, Morgan Stanley believes there is short-term upside risk.