The "unsealing" of the Hormuz Strait triggers a shortage of super oil tankers, causing Persian Gulf VLCC freight rates to soar to 9 times the benchmark.

On June 24th, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) was preliminarily booked at a price of 897 Worldscale points to transport about 2 million barrels of crude oil from the Persian Gulf to India - a price equivalent to 897% of the benchmark freight rate, or nearly nine times. According to shipbrokers, the vessel was provided by the South Korean shipowner Sinokor (Changjin Shipping), marking the highest rate in the tanker market since 2026. Worldscale is the standard measurement index for chartering costs in the tanker industry, with benchmark freight rates set annually for specific routes (index 100), and vessel booking prices expressed as a percentage of that benchmark - known as "points." Sinokor's booking was based on the benchmark rate for the Persian Gulf to Singapore route. 897 points means that the charterer paid almost nine times the premium for this voyage. Emails received by shipbrokers showed that Sinokor provided the VLCC for loading oil from Basra terminal in Iraq on June 24th and transporting it through the Strait of Hormuz - despite the continued restrictions on traffic in this waterway, this demonstrates Sinokor's confidence in navigation prospects. The surge in freight rates has caused a chain reaction from "scrambling for ships" to a situation where there are "no ships left to scramble for." This extreme "tanker shortage" stems from a chain reaction caused by the recently reached temporary agreement between the US and Iran. Since the serious conflict broke out in the Middle East on February 28th (also known as the new round of US-Israeli confrontation with Iran), commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely affected. By May, with the US escalating the maritime blockade, Iran's oil exports by sea plummeted by 93% from 29.7 million barrels in April to only 2.01 million barrels. The substantial closure and blockade of the strait for three months led to a large amount of oil and gas cargoes that were already loaded or waiting to be loaded being stranded in the Persian Gulf waters. It is estimated that at the peak, nearly 500 oil tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships were stuck in the strait area. As of June 22nd, there were still over 400 large vessels anchored in the eastern waters of the Strait of Hormuz, waiting for the channel to fully open. Since the temporary agreement between the US and Iran last week, buyers have been rushing to charter tankers to load cargoes that have been stranded at sea since the end of February. Meanwhile, producers in the Persian Gulf region are also intensifying their exports. According to the latest data from ship tracking agency AXSMarine, as of June 22nd, the daily number of vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz has surged to 42 (including 32 outbound and 12 inbound vessels), reaching the highest level since the conflict broke out on February 28th. However, this number is still only around 27% of the normal pre-conflict level of about 110 vessels per day. However, the supply side is severely lagging behind the rebound in demand. During the three-month period of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, many tanker owners transferred their fleets to other routes. Supporting this recovery now requires a very limited number of available vessels - it may take weeks for fleets to return to the Persian Gulf. The direct result of supply and demand imbalance is the surge in freight rates. Industry data shows that this week, the average charter rate for VLCCs has seen a strong rebound, soaring by 85% compared to the previous week to reach $194,380 per day. The TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) earnings for VLCCs on the Middle East-China route have risen to about $500,000 per day. It is worth noting that even at previous market highs, rates on mainstream routes were only around WS 163 points. The deal at 897 points is almost 5.5 times the market average. As reported earlier, when Chinese and Indian oil companies attempted to charter VLCCs to load crude oil from Basra port in Iraq this week, they received offers of WS 650-750 points (nearly three times pre-war rates) but abandoned them due to high costs and lack of passage assurance. The deal at 897 points further confirms the severity of the market tension. The cost of chartering tankers outside the Strait of Hormuz has nearly doubled, rising from $106,500 per week to $190,500 per day in the past week. Although the market still faces high uncertainty and war risk insurance rates remain high, tanker charter prices have risen to nearly three times the pre-conflict levels, enough to offset risk costs. Sinokor Positions Itself as the Biggest Winner in the Aftermarket, Freight Rates May Fluctuate at High Levels In this feast of the tanker market, the South Korean shipowner Sinokor is undoubtedly the most eye-catching player. Since the end of last year, Sinokor has been actively expanding in the tanker market and has been one of the most active participants in the Persian Gulf region during the war. Industry data shows that since 2026, Sinokor has been dominant in the second-hand VLCC transactions, acquiring 35 out of 45 VLCCs in total, accounting for a high share of 78%. Analysis by Signal Ocean shows that Sinokor currently controls 78 VLCCs in spot trading, which will increase to 88 this quarter. With its own VLCCs reaching 80, and adding chartered vessels, the total capacity exceeds 100, accounting for 20% to 25% of the global compliant VLCC market share. It is estimated that Sinokor controls a fleet of about 120 VLCCs, accounting for 12% to 13% of the global total fleet and one-fourth of the tanker fleet. This scale surpasses Saudi Arabia's Bahri (controlling about 50 vessels), making it the world's largest VLCC operator. Sinokor's proactive strategy is not a blind bet. Industry analysis suggests that if the tensions between the US and Iran end and the Strait of Hormuz is fully passable, the stranded crude oil in the Persian Gulf will generate the first wave of demand for transport. At the same time, the global oil inventory cycle may officially start - according to IEA data, global oil stocks in March decreased by 129 million barrels, and in April by 117 million barrels; EIA predicts a reduction of 6.3 million barrels per day in global petroleum stocks in the second quarter of 2026, and 7.6 million barrels per day in the third quarter; OECD countries' petroleum stocks will drop to the lowest levels since 2003. On June 23rd, TradeWinds reported that as stranded oil tankers began to escape from the Middle East Gulf, Sinokor was sending vessels to the region - as the world's largest VLCC shipowner, Sinokor dispatched two VLCCs through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday of this week. While other market players are still waiting and watching, Sinokor has taken the lead. Looking ahead, the direction of the tanker market will still depend greatly on the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Fitch Ratings, the Strait of Hormuz may reopen around the end of July, and the tanker market will continue to benefit from the current high freight rate environment for the remaining time of 2026. Analysis by CMSC also points out that the US-Iran conflict led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing tanker rates to surge and retract, raising the overall center, and setting a new high for one-year charter prices. However, uncertainties cannot be ignored. The memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran is more of a "stopgap" than a "cure" - there are obvious differences between the two sides on key terms such as navigation rules in the Strait of Hormuz and asset unfreezing. Israel openly stated that it is not bound by the agreement, casting a shadow over the fragile ceasefire prospects. The current ceasefire lacks a strict monitoring mechanism for compliance, and if negotiations are blocked, the situation could rebound at any time. In addition, the fundamentals of the tanker market are also facing variables. Global VLCC new ship orders are at historically low levels, with limited supply growth in the coming years. On the demand side, major importing countries such as India are seeking energy import diversification - India's crude oil imports from Russia in June have increased to 2.66 million barrels per day (from 1.91 million barrels per day in May). If more demand countries turn to more distant supply sources such as West Africa, the Gulf of Mexico, and Brazil, the longer distances will further increase demand for oil ton-miles. In any case, the figure of 897 Worldscale points has already entered the history of oil tanker transportation. It is not only a reflection of market panic under geopolitical impact, but also a sign of the extreme imbalance between supply and demand. Global energy analysts point out that if the 60-day temporary agreement between the US and Iran goes smoothly, the super tanker freight rates in the Persian Gulf may still remain at historical highs in the next two to three weeks, until the return of empty vessels from afar fully fills the gap. This shipping windfall period triggered by geopolitical reversals is reshaping the profit landscape of global commodity logistics.