Guotai Haitong: Heavy truck sales decline month-on-month in May, natural gas sales volume dragged down by rising gas prices.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that with the confirmation of the "old-for-new" policy for heavy trucks in 2026, the bank believes that domestic sales of heavy trucks in 2026 are expected to reach 850,000 units, up 5.9% year-on-year. The effect of the old-for-new policy in 2025 is significant, with a high base for heavy truck sales, but the bank observes that the domestic logistics industry is still in good condition. Under the high replacement base from 2017 to 2021, it is expected that domestic heavy truck sales will continue to rise. Overall, in terms of wholesale sales, the bank believes that sales in 2026 are expected to reach 1.25 million units, up 9.3% year-on-year, with exports expected to maintain growth. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: In terms of total sales, domestic heavy truck sales in May were 109,000 units, an increase of 23% year-on-year, but a decrease of 6% month-on-month. From January to May, domestic heavy truck sales totaled 544,000 units, up 23% year-on-year. The bank believes that the month-on-month decline in heavy truck sales in May is mainly due to the surge in LNG prices leading to a decrease in natural gas heavy truck sales, thus lowering overall sales for May. The year-on-year growth is mainly due to the accelerated replacement of National V diesel heavy trucks under competition and "squeeze" from gas-powered and electric heavy trucks in 2026, resulting in strong demand for new vehicle purchases. Focusing on natural gas heavy trucks, domestic sales of natural gas heavy trucks were 16,000 units in May, up 27% year-on-year, but down 36% month-on-month. From January to May, cumulative sales of natural gas heavy trucks totaled 101,000 units, up 35% year-on-year. Natural gas semi-trailer tractors: In May, domestic sales of natural gas semi-trailer tractors were 15,000 units, up 24% year-on-year, but down 36% month-on-month. From January to May, cumulative sales of natural gas semi-trailer tractors totaled 96,000 units, up 33% year-on-year. The penetration rate of natural gas in heavy trucks in May was 15%, and from January to May, the penetration rate was 19%. According to the bank's calculation of the total cost of ownership for heavy trucks, for tractor-trailers with an average annual mileage of over 150,000 kilometers, using natural gas for most of the time is more cost-effective. The bank believes that with the promotion of large-scale equipment renewal policies, natural gas heavy trucks, as equipment with low operating costs, are expected to further increase their penetration rate. Focusing on new energy heavy trucks, domestic sales of new energy heavy trucks in May were 26,000 units, up 102% year-on-year, and up 9% month-on-month. From January to May, cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks totaled 104,000 units, up 74% year-on-year. The penetration rate of new energy in heavy trucks in May was 24%, and the cumulative penetration rate from January to May was 19%. According to the bank's calculation of the total cost of ownership (TCO) for heavy trucks, new energy heavy trucks are most optimal when the annual mileage is between 45,000 to 100,000 kilometers. The bank believes that with mature technology and declining costs, new energy heavy trucks already have inherent growth potential, and the penetration rate of new energy in 2026 is expected to continue to increase. Therefore, continuous attention should be paid to the implementation of the old-for-new policy for new energy heavy trucks. Risk warning: Economic development falls below expectations, and raw material prices rise significantly.