Industrial: High silver prices drive down photovoltaic costs, the industrialization of precious metals is imminent.

Industrial's research report stated that the high silver price will accelerate the industrialization of low-cost metal substitution technologies. The current mainstream technology routes in the industry mainly include silver-plated copper, electroplated copper, copper paste, and aluminum paste. Industrial applications are steadily landing, with the core purpose of effectively reducing the production costs of crystalline silicon solar cells and providing support for long-term cost reduction in the industry. Overall, the industrial introduction pace of low-silver and silver-free technologies is expected to continue to accelerate, driving the long-term decline in silver consumption in photovoltaic silver paste. Industrial's main points are as follows: The rise in silver prices increases the production costs of photovoltaics, making low-cost metal substitution the core breakthrough for cost reduction. Since 2024, international silver prices have been on the rise, directly driving up the cost of photovoltaic silver paste. If estimated at a silver price of 20,000 yuan/kg in 2026, the cost of silver paste per watt is about 0.163 yuan/W, accounting for nearly 20% of the cost in the module. The high silver price will accelerate the industrialization of low-cost metal substitution technologies. The core logic of low-cost metal substitution is to partially or fully replace silver with low-cost metals such as copper and aluminum. The current mainstream technology routes in the industry mainly include silver-plated copper, electroplated copper, copper paste, and aluminum paste. Each technology has its advantages and disadvantages in terms of process thresholds, compatibility with battery routes, and application scenarios, but all have moved beyond the early development stage. Leading companies such as LONGi Green Energy Technology, Jinko Solar, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy, and Jolywood each have their emphasis on low-cost metal pathways, and industrial applications are steadily landing, with the core purpose of effectively reducing the production costs of crystalline silicon solar cells and providing support for long-term cost reduction in the industry. The continued high silver price drives the acceleration of low-cost metal substitution, with copper paste and other solutions gradually entering mass production breakthrough periods. Specifically: LONGi Green Energy Technology is developing a nano-alloy matrix contact (ACM) technology platform, with a capacity of 20GW expected to be completed by June 2026; Jinko Solar plans to complete nearly 30GW of low-cost metal process transformation by the end of the second quarter of 2026; Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy has achieved 10GW electroplated copper mass production in Zhuhai; CSI Solar Co., Ltd. plans to reduce silver consumption by 30% in the middle of the year and achieve a 40% reduction by the end of the year; Jolywood's Shanxi TOPCon production line is advancing the Namic 1.0 technology transformation, with the goal of completing the upgrade of an 8GW production line. Overall, the industrial introduction pace of low-silver and silver-free technologies is expected to continue to accelerate, driving the long-term decline in silver consumption per unit in photovoltaic silver paste. Investment recommendations: The high silver price is driving the accelerated process of photovoltaic low-cost metal substitution. It is recommended to focus on Jiangsu Boqian New Materials Stock and Changzhou Fusion New Material; the application of low-silver and silver-free technologies at the battery end is continuously deepening, and it is recommended to focus on Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy, LONGi Green Energy Technology, Jinko Solar, CSI Solar Co., Ltd., and Jolywood. Risk warning: Macroeconomic fluctuations; industry policy changes; lower-than-expected downstream demand; changes in foreign trade policies; technological advancements not meeting expectations; Jinko Solar is a market-making company for our company.