Huaan: The supply side focuses on tightly constrained varieties, while the demand side explores emerging applications with high driving force as the two main themes.

Huaan released a research report stating that in 2026, the global macro environment faces great uncertainty. In the situation where global energy supply is limited, trade patterns are reshaping, and capital expenditure in the chemical industry is slowing down, the bank recommends focusing on two major investment themes with higher certainty: focusing on strong constraint varieties on the supply side and exploring emerging applications with high driving force on the demand side. In 2026, due to the influence of international geopolitical conflicts, the prices of crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities are expected to rise, driving CPI/PPI upwards and leading to price increases in chemical products. Key points from Huaan: Reshaping supply pattern, strong constraint varieties leading the way Domestic new capacity of organosilicon is peaking, with overseas manufacturers continuously exiting the market, leading companies leading the industry's recovery; PTA capacity expansion is nearing its end stage, polyester filament capacity becoming more concentrated and coordinated, and the prosperity level of the polyester chain is expected to rise; the caprolactam industry has begun a spontaneous anti-cyclical movement, with prices expected to rise along with the increase in oil prices after the Chinese New Year; significant destocking in the glyphosate industry has been confirmed, with the confirmation of the bottom price of raw materials, coupled with the US listing glyphosate as a strategic resource for national defense, which is expected to provide support to demand; stable and controllable coal supply, widening coal-oil price differentials highlighting the industry's safe asset attributes, leading companies have sufficient profit flexibility; light alkene-based chemicals benefit from a long-term abundant supply of ethane in the US, with raw material prices remaining low, combined with high oil prices amplifying the cost advantage of producing ethylene through gas, bringing about a valuation space under the trend of global diversification and lightening of olefin raw materials; the price of spandex has long been below the cost line, causing widespread losses in the industry, but with significant slowdown in the addition of new capacity and focalizing on leading companies after the Chinese New Year, the optimization of the supply pattern is expected to drive prices up; the second-generation refrigerant quota has been accelerated in cutting, while the third generation has entered a period of quota freeze, with strict expansion on the supply side driving the continuous rising of mainstream product prices. Competing new applications driving high demand growth, it is the right time to layout The market for MLCC has a broad outlook, with the rapid development of the global MLCC market due to the popularity of artificial intelligence technology, the exponential increase in new energy vehicle sales, and the iterative development of autonomous driving systems. Overseas manufacturers dominate the market, but the process of localization in China is significantly accelerating, suggesting a focus on Shandong Sinocera Functional Material; the explosive growth of AI servers has led to electronic-grade polyphenylene ether becoming a key material due to its excellent dielectric properties, with domestic manufacturers making technological breakthroughs and entering the top supply chain in response to increasing demand, leading to steady expansion of capacity by top manufacturers, suggesting a focus on Sichuan Em Technology and Jinan Shengquan Group Share Holding; the global display panel market is experiencing stable growth, with domestic enterprises accelerating material upgrades, iterative development, and research into material improvements, with a continuous increase in penetration rate, suggesting a focus on Shaanxi Lighte Optoelectronics Material; as 3M exits the market for fluoride liquid, the demand for liquid cooling and semiconductor manufacturing is growing, with an optimistic view on the increase in market share of domestic manufacturers under the reshaping of the supply pattern, suggesting a focus on Shenzhen Capchem Technology; the global expansion cycle of wafer capacity has begun, with electronic chemicals as essential consumables being driven by process improvement and expanded capacity, causing a cyclical upturn, suggesting a focus on Zhongju Semiconductor. Risk warning 1. Risk of significant fluctuations in chemical prices; 2. Risk of changes in industry and regulatory policies; 3. Risk of force majeure and safety production; 4. Risk of escalation of conflicts in global regions; 5. Risk of trade disputes between countries and regions; 6. Risk of significant economic downturn.