Hong Kong stock concept tracking | e-commerce growth continues to be stable. Institutions are optimistic about the attractive valuation of leading express delivery companies (with concept stocks attached).

From January to May, the express delivery volume totaled 82.87 billion pieces, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year. In May alone, the express delivery volume reached 18.3 billion pieces, up 5.7% year-on-year. The steady increase in business volume has driven industry revenue to continue to rise. From January to May, the total revenue of the express delivery business reached 635.37 billion yuan, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year. In May, the express delivery revenue reached 137.44 billion yuan, up 9.5% year-on-year. The pace of express delivery going international is accelerating. From January to May, the international/Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan express delivery volume reached 1.78 billion pieces, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year. The share of same-city, different-city, and international/Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan express delivery volumes accounted for 7.1%, 90.8%, and 2.1% of the total express delivery volume, respectively. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May this year, the national online retail sales of goods reached 5.2718 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.0% year-on-year. A CITIC SEC research report stated that the emphasis on the high increase in e-commerce express delivery profit in the second quarter of 2026 may further increase the profit growth rate for the quarter. Expectations of policies such as "boosting consumption with greater strength" and the exploration of incremental commercial flow more actively may lead to an increase in express delivery volume in the second half of the year. It is expected that the annual growth rate of volume will be maintained at 8%. In addition to price increases, attention is being paid to the differentiation in cost reduction ability. The competition between express delivery companies is leading to a narrowing of price differences, which may drive more competitive leading express delivery companies to achieve economies of scale. Additionally, the application of AI is leading to further differentiation in volume and cost reduction capabilities, with the competitive advantage expected to continue to expand. Amid uncertainties in the external policy environment, it is important for excellent express delivery industry leaders to continue to strengthen their network competitiveness and create value incrementally. Currently, the valuation of leading express delivery companies is highly attractive, and it is recommended to seize the opportunity to invest. Express delivery businesses involved in related Hong Kong stocks: ZTO Express (02057): J.P. Morgan stated that the anti-"overwork" policy is reducing price competition, allowing ZTO to improve efficiency, invest in technology, and raise industry entry barriers. ZTO's business volume guidance for 2026 is 10% to 13%, higher than the industry's forecast of 8%, benefiting from increased market share, a more rational pricing environment, and profit margin expansion. J&T EXPRESS-W (01519): CIMB sees the potential for J&T Express' global expansion, expecting it to continue gaining market share and benefiting from the prosperity of Southeast Asian e-commerce, with strong growth expected in other markets such as Latin America due to the rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce platforms and increased online penetration. After market close on June 9, J&T Express and S.F. Holding announced the completion of a new cross-shareholding agreement, with J&T Express now holding a 4.29% stake in S.F. Holding, and S.F. Holding holding a 9.98% stake in J&T Express. S.F. Holding (06936): The company's core business segment, express delivery, has strong profit resilience, and the supply chain and international business segments are benefiting from the wave of Chinese companies going global. Strategic cooperation with J&T Express opens up synergies and is expected to continue building a second growth curve. JD LOGISTICS (02618): The company successfully achieved its goal of doubling the area of its self-operated overseas warehouses in 25 years, with a total self-operated overseas warehouse management area of nearly 2 million square meters covering 25 countries and regions globally. The company has made positive progress in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region over the past 25 years, driving high growth in its overseas business. SF INTRA-CITY (09699): The network layout is continuously improving with the growth of revenue scale. In 2025, the company added more than 7,900 new cooperative stores, and the active merchant base reached 1.12 million, an increase of 72% year-on-year. B2B same-city delivery service is a core growth driver for the company in 2026, benefiting from the booming scenarios of restaurant takeout and non-food instant retail, with the segment's annual revenue reaching 10.7 billion yuan, up 60% year-on-year. The C2C same-city delivery business has achieved stable growth, with a year-on-year growth of 13.7% in 2025, reaching a revenue of 2.77 billion yuan.