Houthi rebels rewrite the inflation script by reopening. Maxwell cuts Brent crude oil expectations, shouting for a $200 oil price.

Recently, the international financial giant Macquarie Group, headquartered in Australia, significantly lowered its benchmark forecasts for international oil prices in 2026 and 2027. The core reason for this is that the institution expects oil flows from the Middle East to quickly return to normalcy due to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under the framework of the US-Iran peace agreement. Recently, Wall Street giants including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have cut their main theme in the commodity market, reducing the "war risk premium" in oil price pricing expectations and unanimously lowering oil price expectations. Meanwhile, Brent has fallen to around $77 per barrel, with market speculation focusing on positive prospects for US-Iran negotiations, a 60-day sanction waiver, and the recovery of energy flow in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil price expectations have continued to decline under the positive outlook of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with US gasoline prices falling below $4 per gallon for the first time since March. Following an unprecedented global energy supply disruption caused by a new round of Middle East geopolitical conflicts leading to months of consecutive fuel cost spikes, this has brought relief to American consumers who have been experiencing high inflation trends driven by energy since the beginning of the year. The June FOMC monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve released a slightly hawkish signal as expected by the market, keeping the benchmark policy rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, with the majority of Fed officials submitting forecasts showing the possibility of further rate hikes in 2026, and the core PCE forecast being revised upward to 3.3%. For the Federal Reserve, the downward trend in gasoline prices and oil price pricing expectations helps weaken the hawkish policy path, but it is not yet enough to confirm a shift towards a dovish policy stance directly, mainly due to the impact of energy prices on overall CPI inflation, future inflation expectations, and consumer gasoline expenditures, as the Fed also pays attention to core PCE, wages, service inflation, and financial conditions. Macquarie bets on the rapid normalization of Middle East energy trade, bullish oil price expectations face reevaluation After the US and Iran reached a temporary peace agreement, oil and natural gas resources are once again being transported in large quantities from the Persian Gulf. Strategists at Macquarie expect the international benchmark crude oil price Brent to average $77 per barrel in 2026, significantly lower than their previous forecast of $89 per barrel and the $200 forecast in extreme conditions of US-Iran conflict. The institution also revised its outlook for the average Brent price in 2027 from $74 per barrel to $64 per barrel. In a research report on Tuesday, including strategists Peter Taylor and Vikas Dwivedi wrote that although there are many obstacles that may hinder the speedy return of oil production and trade flows in the Middle East to pre-war normalcy, the overall adjustment speed of producers in the region may be faster than the market generally expects. "The market is significantly underestimating the speed of the recovery of energy trade and the self-repair ability of the oil market," wrote the strategists. "The region's professional capabilities in oil production, available oil storage and transportation space, and scientific advancements in oil field rotation are expected to enable supply to recover much faster than the market generally expects." According to this research report, oil trading prices are expected to experience drastic fluctuations in the coming months: as shipowners remain cautious about passing through the region, oil prices may show a short-term rise before significantly falling again. Looking at a longer-term perspective, Macquarie strategists say that measures to rebuild commercial and strategic inventories will to some extent support oil prices, bringing them into a stable price range after a period of decline. From war risk premiums to peace discounts: Wall Street cuts Brent crude oil expectations, inflation trading reaches a key turning point Recently, major Wall Street banks including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have reduced their main theme in the commodity market, cutting their expectations for international oil prices by trimming the "war risk premium" in pricing. Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for Brent in the fourth quarter from $90 per barrel to $80, and lowered its average price forecast for 2027 from $80 to $75; Morgan Stanley also lowered some Brent forecasts, reflecting the core assumption in market pricing that progress in the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran is positive, the gradual recovery of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the temporary lifting of some US sanctions on Iran are pushing Iran's oil provision through a phased export channel, significantly cooling the tail risks of supply shocks. Morgan Stanley expects oil and gas production in the Middle East to recover to 50% by September, 80% by December, and nearly fully recovered by early 2027. In the view of another Wall Street giant J.P. Morgan, the most critical change in oil market pricing now is the market shifting back from "blockade-induced pricing" to "supply recovery and inventory rebalancing pricing." However, the recovery of oil and gas supply in the Strait of Hormuz does not mean that oil prices will plunge straight down. Macquarie's logic of the market underestimating the self-repairing ability of the oil market is based on the belief that oil-producing countries in the Middle East have the ability to recover production, adjust tank schedule, rotate fields, and release inventory; however, maritime insurance, mine clearance, port congestion, floating warehousing release, and buyer compliance concerns will still cause temporary friction. According to reports, although limited navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has been restored, energy infrastructure damage and congestion still limit full recovery; after the temporary lifting of some US sanctions on Iran, Asian refineries' acceptance of Iranian oil is also constrained by inventory, compliance, and payment issues. Therefore, the fundamental reason for the downward revision of oil price expectations is not a "collapse in demand," but the squeezing out of geopolitical risk premiums, bringing oil prices back into a framework dominated by inventory, capacity, demand elasticity, and OPEC+ response functions. For expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve monetary policy and the recent focus of the market on inflation trading, they may be weakened, but not enough to directly confirm a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy towards a dovish stance. This is mainly because energy prices primarily affect overall CPI inflation, future inflation expectations, and consumer gasoline expenditures, and in addition to these factors, the Fed also pays attention to core PCE, wages, service inflation, and financial conditions. If oil prices continue to stabilize below $80 or even further decline, it will reduce the risk of "energy-driven secondary inflation - inflation expectations unanchored - forced rate hikes," shifting market expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy from "reflation and rate hike trading" to "wait and see or even reprice rate cut windows"; however, a true trigger for a shift in Federal Reserve policy towards a dovish stance would still require simultaneous cooling of core PCE, employment, and service inflation. In other words, the downward trend in oil prices is one of the necessary catalysts for the Fed to shift from hawkish to dovish, but it is not a sufficient condition.