SpaceX faces debt pressure test of AI vertical integration myth, Wall Street still supports the "28.5 trillion dollar super AI blueprint."

Although the American super technology giant SpaceX, founded by Musk, focuses on "AI + space exploration", fell more than 16% on Monday and continued to decline for three consecutive trading days - with Monday's market value evaporating 400 billion dollars due to the liquidity pressure test caused by at least $200 billion bond issuance plan, setting the second largest single-day market value loss record in global corporate history, Wall Street's bullish sentiment on SpaceX remains strong, and analysts believe that SpaceX could be a strong amplifier for the AI super bull market, rather than a bubble terminator. This also means that SpaceX's record trillion-dollar market value IPO signifies that the global bull market revolving around the AI computing power industry chain may be far from over. Tim Horan, an artificial intelligence infrastructure, satellite, and communications industry analyst from the well-known Wall Street investment firm Oppenheimer, remains optimistic about SpaceX's fundamentals and stock price prospects despite the recent stock price drop, maintaining a "buy" rating and giving a target price of up to $250. As of the Monday closing of the US stock market, SpaceX's stock price fell by 16.43% to $154.60, with a market value hovering around $2.03 trillion. This decline more resembles a "financing discipline review" of the super bull market in AI infrastructure: from a long-term perspective, if SpaceX realizes accelerated expansion of the Starlink mobile communication market share, large-scale reuse of Starship, accelerated penetration of enterprise-level AI applications, landing of the TeraFab chip manufacturing project, and the complete closure of the space AI computing power infrastructure platform, it may still be the most imaginative vertical integration asset in the AI application + AI computing power industry chain; in the short term, the expansion of debt, low float, retail crowding trading post-IPO, and overpreconditioning of valuation, may make it more prone to sharp fluctuations than traditional tech giants. As the richest person in the world to date, Musk has achieved what others thought impossible in the past - by building a commercially viable high-frequency rocket launch business with SpaceX, leading the global electric vehicle market with Tesla, Inc., and providing internet connectivity infrastructure from space through Starlink. However, some investors doubt whether Musk can really build his "epic" chip-making operation in Austin and realize his envisioned "artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, and space AI data center super blueprint." SpaceX's vertical integration ambitions point towards a "space AI super empire" In an interview with the media, senior analyst Horan from Oppenheimer explained that SpaceX's valuation has doubled in the past six months through entry into the artificial intelligence computing power infrastructure leasing + AI application market; he believes that the most advanced industries related to artificial intelligence represent a total potential market of $25 trillion, which echoes SpaceX's super space AI blueprint of $28.5 trillion shown in its prospectus. Horan emphasized that SpaceX is the only technology giant capable of disrupting the layout of the artificial intelligence industry chain in a "completely vertically integrated" way. "They are the only ones capable of attacking every segment of this field and truly disrupting a large number of traditional industries through vertical integration," Horan said in an interview. He pointed out that the company produces its own CECEP Solar Energy solar panels and large-scale storage infrastructure and aspires to produce its own chips through a TeraFab large wafer manufacturing plant capable of producing five times the global chip yield. The analyst pointed out that Musk's ambitious goal of achieving $1 trillion in revenue within five years represents a significant investment opportunity for SpaceX. "If he approaches this goal, companies of this type typically trade at 10 times revenue run rate. Therefore, what we see is a space AI super empire that could possibly reach $10 trillion in five years," Horan explained, but he also noted that his current valuation system does not extend that high. Starlink remains the main driver of SpaceX's revenue and free cash flow, and Horan predicts that the actual value of this satellite internet business could reach around $1 trillion in the future. The company currently serves around 12 million broadband users globally, but Horan believes that its capacity could increase significantly by 100 times in the next five to ten years, potentially supporting hundreds of millions of customers. "They will also enter the mobile market, which will ultimately be larger than the broadband market," he added, describing Starlink as a "cash cow" that could support SpaceX's ambitious plans for space AI data centers and AI application penetration, and could ultimately fund its Mars colonization ambition. When asked about risks, Horan pointed out two main concerns: successfully deploying the Starship rocket into a high-frequency launch and low-cost operational system, and successfully launching the TeraFab - SpaceX's ambitious chip manufacturing project. "These are extremely, extremely ambitious projects," Horan admitted. "But this company and Elon Musk are very good at pushing forward with ambitious large projects." From the Starlink cash cow to the TeraFab chip manufacturing dream, SpaceX's sharp decline is not a collapse of AI faith The recent sharp drop in SpaceX's stock price does not mean that Wall Street is completely negating its grand AI narrative, but the market is starting to re-evaluate the super AI growth story of "Starship high-frequency launch + Starlink cash cow + space AI data center + TeraFab chip manufacturing plant + AI large models/AI applications", placing it back into the framework of pricing based on financing costs, debt maturity, free cash flow, and valuation multiples. Tim Horan of Oppenheimer still maintains a "buy" rating and a target price of $250, viewing SpaceX as the only company capable of disrupting the AI landscape in a fully vertically integrated manner, the logic being that it has end-to-end control capabilities from satellite networks, CECEP Solar Energy, commercial space systems to potential chip manufacturing; he even believes that AI represents a total potential market of $25 trillion and Starlink alone could be worth around $1 trillion, with its current 12 million broadband users potentially increasing their capacity by 100 times in the next 5-10 years. The core of this bullish framework is not the traditional space valuation, but seeing SpaceX as a new type of AI infrastructure company as a "space communication network + non-ground AI computing power infrastructure + vertically integrated hardware platform + AI application giant". However, the three-day stock price decline reflects another reality: the AI computing power arms race is pushing SpaceX from a high-growth story to a high capital-intensive asset on the balance sheet. The company's first investment-grade bond issuance targets at least $200 billion, with funds primarily intended to repay the $200 billion bridge loan formed after the xAI acquisition and to support the construction of data centers required for AI expansion, hardware purchases related to AI computing resources, and power infrastructure construction. Its bond ratings have reached Moody's Baa1 and Standard & Poor's BBB, but the AI-related business is seen as a risk point with high initial costs and significant revenue uncertainty. Therefore, SpaceX's stock price fell by approximately 16.4% on Monday, closing at $154.60, with a market value that fell by about $400.8 billion to around $2.04 trillion, not simply a "collapse of AI faith," but investors are starting to question whether SpaceX can support its multiple capital expenditures on AI, TeraFab, Starship, and future space orbit AI data centers using Starlink cash flow, debt financing, and trust in the capital markets. From a long-term investment perspective, if SpaceX realizes accelerated expansion of the Starlink mobile communication market share, large-scale reuse of Starship, accelerated penetration of enterprise-level AI applications, landing of the TeraFab chip manufacturing project, and the complete closure of the space AI computing power infrastructure platform, it may still be the most imaginative vertical integration asset in the AI application + AI computing power industry chain. SpaceX's highly anticipated IPO prospectus released last month showed its self-assessed total addressable market (TAM) reaching a staggering $28.5 trillion; if this so-called "space AI empire" super blueprint scale is realized one day, it will approach the entire output of the U.S. economy. The company stated in its IPO prospectus that it has "identified the largest executable total potential market prospects in human history," primarily driven by AI super software, with the contribution of the space sector also cannot be ignored. This $28.5 trillion forecast, compared to the U.S. nominal GDP of nearly $32 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, is equally impressive; the estimated enterprise-side super application market around AI is about $22.7 trillion, roughly equivalent to 70% of the total output of the U.S. economy. In addition, if SpaceX, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US), and xAI eventually move towards deeper integration, their narrative and valuation ceiling will be further raised; Wedbush's senior analyst Dan Ives believes that SpaceX and Tesla, Inc. could merge by 2027. It is worth noting that these are not the company's performance growth forecasts, not locked orders, not valuations, but SpaceX's attempt to prove to the capital markets: it is not just a commercial aerospace/satellite internet company, but is packaging its Starlink satellite network system, AI, potential space orbit AI computing power infrastructure, enterprise software, and space solutions for defense or commercial sectors into a "super platform narrative across AI and space AI data centers". The $28.5 trillion outlook does not only cover Musk's recently mentioned "space AI data center market size", but is SpaceX's own calculated total addressable market (TAM) shown in the IPO filing, with the vast majority coming from AI software/enterprise applications, not space or space data centers. Breaking it down, the total AI-related market is about $26.5 trillion, including $22.7 trillion for AI enterprise applications, $2.4 trillion for AI infrastructure, $760 billion for AI consumer subscriptions, and $600 billion for AI digital advertising; the truly "space-enabled solutions" are only about $370 billion, with the total for Starlink (i.e., "Starlink") broadband and mobile totaling about $1.61 trillion.