Essence of the securities morning meeting | With the strong demand for replenishing inventory, domestic coal prices are still expected to rise.

Yesterday, the market rebounded with volatility, with the yellow and white lines showing clear differentiation and heavyweight stocks showing strong trends. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 3.74 trillion yuan, the second highest in history. In terms of sectors, the large financial sector surged, the non-ferrous metal and zirconium concept continued to be strong, the diamond concept saw growth, and the chemical industry sector showed abnormal upward movements. On the downside, the semiconductor equipment sector fluctuated and fell back. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.78%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.13%, the ChiNext Index rose by 2.52%, and the STAR 50 Index rose by 1.96%. At today's securities morning meeting, CITIC SEC believes that the upturn cycle of semiconductor equipment is expected to accelerate; Huatai believes that the market may see a tight supply-demand recovery after the opening up of the strait; Changjiang believes that domestic coal prices are still expected to rise under the demand for replenishing storage. CITIC SEC: Upturn cycle of semiconductor equipment is expected to accelerate Benefiting from the active capital expenditure guidance of downstream major customers and expansion plans, the demand for semiconductor equipment is expected to remain strong. It is expected that the global wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market size will increase by 26%/35% year-on-year to $147.8 billion/$199.5 billion in 2026/2027, with further increase in the downstream storage proportion. Considering the gradual release of equipment capacity and new product iterations, semiconductor equipment manufacturers may have increased bargaining power. Based on downstream market demand, competitive landscape, equipment spending intensity, company performance, and valuation situation, it is recommended to pay attention to related targets. Huatai: Market may see a tight supply-demand recovery after the opening of the strait Considering the bottom support of oil prices, high-dividend oil and gas leading enterprises with the ability to increase production and reduce costs and incremental natural gas business may help to achieve domestic oil and gas resource independence and controllability; the Chinese petrochemical industry chain has strong resilience, and with the decline in oil prices followed by global downstream replenishment, categories such as chemical fibers and plastics are expected to see a warming trend. Changjiang: Domestic coal prices are still expected to rise under the demand for replenishing storage Recently, the technology sector has been shining, while the coal sector has been leading the decline. In addition to fund style factors, the current market has three major concerns about the coal industry: 1) the opening of the strait, will the logic of energy reassessment collapse? 2) Facing the peak summer, will energy guarantee supply suppression affect safety expectations? 3) Abundant water supply, weakening demand for thermal power? In summary, in the long term, under the background of deglobalization, the turmoil caused by the energy supply disruption in the US-Iran conflict is difficult to reverse, and the future energy reassessment will continue to evolve; in the short term, it is difficult for safety supervision policies after major accidents to turn due to the influence of current conventional energy guarantee policies, and with the gradual approach of summer, although there is abundant water supply, the high increase in electricity demand due to the El Nio effect provides resilient support to thermal power demand, and under the subsequent demand for replenishing storage, domestic coal prices are still expected to rise. This article is reproduced from "Cai Lianshe", GMTEight editor: Huang Xiaodong.