The old script is no longer valid, and new rules have been established: under Powell's leadership, the Federal Reserve has embarked on a "higher and longer" path. How can the TOLL strategy break the deadlock?

Wash's "minimalist statement + no longer publish dot matrix" declares farewell to micro-management, shaking the market. However, the macro background remains unchanged: the government still tends towards a "hot operation" economy, with AI's long-term deflation potential constraining interest rate hikes. At a time when the old script is no longer valid, focusing on TOLL strategy of hard assets and pricing power is becoming the key to navigating through the fog of "higher and longer". Misjudging this transition is misjudging the future. Market panic stems from the dramatic change in the communication mechanism of the Federal Reserve - the FOMC statement has been trimmed from 341 words to 130 words, and Wash will no longer disclose individual interest rate forecasts. This clearly signals a "stop micro-managing the market", forcing investors to deal with uncertainty independently. This change confirms previous predictions: Wash is different from traditional hawks, he cares more about the balance sheet and communication strategy. By adjusting wording to guide market expectations, financial conditions can be tightened without taking action. The dot matrix has revealed clues: half of the members expect to raise interest rates in 2026, completely shattering the doves' fantasy of the year. The core macro logic has not changed: the government tends towards a "hot operation" economy. Moderate inflation can dilute the real value of debt, provided that economic growth is broadly dispersed. The rebound of the ISM manufacturing index confirms this trend. At the beginning of the year, the market focused on growth, but after the Iran conflict, it shifted to concerns about supply-side inflation. Although Wash acknowledges that inflation is driven by energy and supply shocks, given the fragile market liquidity and the long-term deflation potential of AI, there is no need for aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. AI is seen as a tool to combat inflation and solve the debt problem, which is also the cornerstone of maintaining optimistic expectations in the stock market - although caution should be maintained against excessive valuation and reliance on AI. But this does not mean that the S&P 500 is the only answer. Structural changes in the index have given rise to new risks, with the middle layer of the market under pressure: the gap between AI winners and losers is transforming into profit margin risk. Diversification is crucial. In this framework, TOLL strategy (focusing on companies with hard assets, deep moats, low capital expenditure, and long-term cash flow) becomes the preferred option. For example: Canadian company The Pacific Railway (CP.US) and CME Group (CME.US). The Pacific Railway in Canada benefits from the reshoring of manufacturing and its exclusive network in North America, combining pricing power with cyclical attributes. The market overestimates the erosion of the competitive moat of CME Group by new competitors. Institutions still need reliable high-liquidity venues, and its data advantage and interest rate business platform make it more resilient in volatile market conditions. The old script has become obsolete. Structural factors will keep inflation and interest rates high, as the Federal Reserve shifts to a "higher and longer" pattern relying on communication. The market is on thin ice, but by allocating to tangible assets with pricing power and diversifying risk, one can still navigate through the cycle. Investors who misjudge this transition will face risks.