Cui Dongshu: Total sales volume of the car market in May under pressure, structural differentiation, strong dominance of new energy, export growth against the trend.

Cui Dongshu stated in an article that the core features of the car market in May are the collapse of domestic sales of fuel cars, the strong dominance of new energy vehicles, and the counter-trend growth of exports. The core reason for the decline in the domestic car market is the significant shrinkage in the sales of fuel cars under the impact of high oil prices, with fuel cars accounting for 37% in May, but the year-on-year decrease accounting for 82% of the total decrease in passenger car sales, dragging down the overall market trend. Factors such as high oil prices and consumer transformation have accelerated the process of "oil-electric substitution", with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in retail sales reaching a historical high of 62.9% this month. The electrification transformation of joint venture brands has accelerated, with a 51% year-on-year increase in sales of new energy joint venture models in May, while fuel cars decreased by 41% year-on-year. Exports continue to be the industry's core growth engine, with new energy exports accounting for 54% in May, a record high, but the performance of fuel car exports, which increased by 46%, is also strong, showing a comprehensive growth in China's overseas market performance. The current car market highlights the characteristics of stock competition, with continuous intensification of differentiation within the industry. The new energy market shows a trend of "explosive growth in high-end electric vehicles and pressure on low-end economic models", with significant declines in rural markets and entry-level models. At the same time, the "new car effect" is short-term, significantly reducing its market-driving power. Channel-side pressures continue to be evident, with the industry passively accelerating inventory clearance pace, leading to widespread losses among dealers and increasing operational risks. Overall, the warming of the car market in May is only a structural repair, with electrification iteration and overseas market growth becoming the core support for the industry's long-term growth. The characteristics of the passenger car market in May 2026: 1. Total volume under pressure, significant structural differentiation, with "cold for fuel cars and hot for new energy" being the main focus. The core reason for the decline in domestic retail sales is the "collapse of fuel cars," leading to a historical high of 62.9% penetration rate of new energy vehicles, exceeding expectations for the electrification transition. 2. Accelerated electrification transformation of joint venture brands, with a 51% year-on-year increase in mainstream joint venture new energy domestic retail sales in May, while the overall independent new energy growth is -10%, and joint venture brands such as Buick (accounting for 45% of new energy) are beginning to see the effects of transitioning to new energy. 3. Explosive growth in exports, with new energy accounting for 54% of exports (a historical high), driven by a combination of new energy and independent brands, leading to "going global" as the core growth engine. 4. Passive inventory clearance characteristics are obvious, with channel inventory decreasing rapidly, leading to overall losses for listed dealers and increasing survival pressure for dealers. 5. Independent brand breakthroughs at the high end, with retail sales of passenger cars in the 200,000-300,000, 300,000-400,000, and over 400,000 price ranges all exceeding 50%. 6. Pressure on micro electric vehicles, shrinking of A-class cars, urgent need for support in the entry-level consumer market, and expectations for the launch of economic electric car standards. In May 2026, passenger car retail sales decreased by 22%, significantly lower than the 5% decrease in wholesale, leading to an internal cold and external hot pattern. The retail declines were attributed to the impact of high oil prices and the suspension of subsidies, with A-class and A00-class car retail sales being particularly low. A0-class cars and high-end models became the main drivers of retail sales in May, with SUVs showing strong performance in the high-end segment, especially in the recovery of A0-class sedan sales.