Global lithium mines are heating up: institutions are optimistic about Q3 and expect lithium prices to rebound by nearly 50%, with energy storage taking over as the new engine for new energy vehicles.

Notice that the global lithium market has undergone a positive transformation, with analysts believing that demand from energy storage systems and electric cars is driving up the prices of this battery material. Although lithium prices have fallen from the record high levels set last month in 2023, the market has become active again in the past week as China's busier procurement season approaches, easing concerns about inventory levels and Australian mine restarts. Analysts from three monitoring agencies (CRU Group, Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, and Citigroup) that track the lithium market suggest that supply tightness will drive prices beyond recent highs. CRU predicts that the average price level will surge by nearly 50% in the next quarter compared to this quarter before softening again. Martin Jackson, CRU's Battery Materials Market Lead, said, "It's certain that this might come as a surprise, but we believe that the market's most tense period is yet to come." Chinese lithium prices have risen by 175% compared to a year ago. After enduring a difficult few years following the 2022 price surge, which was tempered by increased supply and a slowdown in the proliferation of electric vehicles, lithium has managed to overcome its challenges. The emergence of large-scale battery energy storage as a primary new demand driver has helped support a nearly 40% increase in benchmark product lithium carbonate prices this year. CRU expects the average lithium carbonate price in the third quarter to increase from $22,800 per ton this quarter to $33,900, while Benchmark Minerals Intelligence estimates prices could reach $30,000 this year. Analysts at Citigroup suggest prices could climb to RMB 250,000 (approximately $36,976), most likely in August to September. In comparison, the latest spot price in China, according to data from Asian Metal Web, is RMB 165,500. Adam Meakin, Chief Lithium Price Analyst at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, said, "As we near the end of the year, which is typically the busiest period for consumption, we expect strong demand to provide particularly robust support for prices." The company believes the market will be tight this year but predicts an oversupply in 2027. Citigroup also mentioned that Chinese battery manufacturers may ramp up exports before the end of tax exemptions in 2027. New Growth Engine Energy storage systems - batteries that absorb and store electricity for controlled release - are providing a new growth pillar for global lithium producers. Major lithium producer Albemarle announced last month that demand in this market had accelerated significantly by 2026, while BloombergNEF predicts that China's energy storage capacity will grow at an annual rate of 8% until 2036. Concerns about another surge in supply may persist, which may have played a role in the price declines since mid-May. Two mining projects in Australia (Finniss and Bald Hill) have recently restarted, indicating that price increases are stimulating preliminary supply responses. Zimbabwe's decision to relax its previous ban on lithium exports has also exerted pressure on the market. Furthermore, concerns about the high stocks at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (where prices are higher than the spot market) have also emerged. Earlier this month, inventories reached about 56,000 tons, the highest level since the exchange started trading. Su Jinyi, an analyst at the consultancy firm Fortune Information, said this growth suggests that inventory in the supply chain is higher than previously expected, which could suppress price increases. However, she also pointed out that demand remains robust, and prices are acceptable for downstream buyers.