Wanlian Securities: The aviation sector is expected to achieve a restorative rebound, focusing on the value of dividend asset allocation.

Wanlian Securities released a research report stating that in the first half of 2026, the overall performance of the transportation industry was weak due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts and increased market risk appetite. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the negotiations between the US and Iran are developing positively, and the core factors that previously suppressed the aviation sector are easing, potentially leading to a recovery. In addition, the improvement in the supply-demand pattern in the medium to long term will support the fundamental recovery of the sector. With the continuous promotion of "anti-internal competition" in the express delivery industry, price competition is expected to ease, leading to a recovery in performance. Dividend assets, especially stocks with high dividend yields in the sector, show a good value proposition. It is also recommended to pay attention to the railway freight sector with pricing and volume elasticity. Wanlian Securities' main points are as follows: Aviation: In the short term, the progress of US-Iran negotiations may fluctuate, but overall it is moving in a positive direction. On June 15, it was confirmed that the US-Iran ceasefire memorandum of understanding will be signed on June 19, which will help alleviate the negative impact of rising aviation fuel prices on airline stocks. In the medium to long term, demand continues to recover, the "anti-internal competition" policy continues to be promoted, visa-free policies continue to expand, and with economic recovery, business demand is expected to recover. Under the strategy of "price for volume" in the past two years, the passenger load factor has continued to increase. There is limited room for further improvement in the current load factor. With the expected demand growth in 2026, ticket prices are expected to gradually rise, and the supply of airlines is expected to maintain a low growth rate, showing an improved supply-demand pattern. The core stocks in the sector are currently undervalued, with high cost performance. It is recommended to pay attention to them. Express delivery: The online retail sales of physical goods have entered a period of steady growth, and the e-commerce industry is further regulated, promoting rational competition in the express delivery industry. The "anti-internal competition" policy continues to be promoted, and its effects have been shown in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. Listed express delivery companies have established an inflection point in performance, the industry prices are rebounding, and the advantages of leading companies are highlighted. It is recommended to pay attention to them. Dividend assets: Since the beginning of this year, market risk appetite has increased, favoring styles like technology growth, whereas dividend assets have shown relatively weak performance. In the short term, the toll road sector may experience a slight weakening in transportation volume due to rising transportation costs. However, with the easing of geopolitical risks, it is expected to maintain relative stability throughout the year. Among the toll road stocks, those with high dividend yields and stable performance are more favored by the market. It is recommended to actively pay attention to such stocks. In the railway transport sector, in terms of passenger transportation, it may benefit from the diversion of air passenger transportation and the continuous deepening of market-driven ticket pricing. In terms of freight transportation, the upward trend in energy prices is expected to drive the recovery of coal transportation volume, which has pricing elasticity. It is recommended to actively pay attention to the freight sector. As for ports, external demand continues to grow, and port throughput continues to increase steadily, with core stocks in the sector showing high dividend advantages. It is recommended to continue paying attention. In summary, on the one hand, it is recommended to focus on the phase opportunities in the market style change and the allocation opportunities of stocks with high dividend yields and stable performance. On the other hand, it is recommended to pay attention to the railway freight sector with elasticity in pricing and volume. Risk factors: Macroeconomic growth falling short of expectations, significant exchange rate fluctuations, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, significant fluctuations in oil prices, deteriorating competition, and other uncontrollable factors.